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February 04, 2008

Dole, Morris, Luntz on "Hannity & Colmes"

Hannity & Colmes

HANNITY: Welcome to HANNITY AND COLMES. Here we are, Super Tuesday eve, just hours away from the biggest presidential primary in American history. We have all the angles covered tonight. But we begin right here in our New York studio with a very special guest, former Senate majority leader and presidential nominee, Bob Dole is with us, from 1996. How are you, my friend?

BOB DOLE, FORMER PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Fine.

HANNITY: Good to see you. Let's get into this. You sent a letter to Rush Limbaugh.

DOLE: An, email. I don't know how to do that. Somebody else did it.

HANNITY: First of all, did you leak that to the press?

DOLE: I think somebody did after 3:00.

HANNITY: From your office or McCain's office?

DOLE: I don't know. We just sent a copy to Rick Davis.

HANNITY: You didn't purposely -- I actually contacted Rush, and one of the things he said in an email exchange that we just had, he said that he loves you. He's always respected you --

DOLE: We're buddies.

HANNITY: And he didn't interpret your email as a scolding, as the Politico referred to it.

DOLE: It was a report, not an endorsement or anything, just a report.

HANNITY: He was prepping a response, and now that it's all public, he's going to do it on the air tomorrow. Why would somebody release a private correspondence like that?

DOLE: Email, private, I don't know.

HANNITY: When you sent it to Rush, did you expect it to be leaked to the press.

DOLE: I figured somebody would find out about it. In fact, I heard it on the radio somewhere. Anyway, I assume he wasn't going to use it at 3:00, so then we did give it to people after 3:00. But I figured off the air. I made it very clear that I disagreed with Senator McCain, but I also reported what happened when I was the leader and he was a senator.

HANNITY: And you talk about you got out of the Senate in 1996.

DOLE: In June, I voluntarily left to run.

HANNITY: Most of the votes - I'm going to run down --

DOLE: It happened after I left. They missed me.

HANNITY: He not only was against the Bush tax cuts, which you reference in the letter, but he also used the class warfare rhetoric, that this would benefit the wealthy. McCain-Feingold --

DOLE: That was terrible. I said so in my email to Rush.

HANNITY: You said that one there? McCain/Kennedy, 12 to 14 million would have, ostensibly, amnesty.

DOLE: But I also pointed out that under President Reagan in '86 we had amnesty, 2.7 million illegals get amnesty, and I didn't hear a peep out of anybody. The fact is, McCain voted against that bill in the House.

HANNITY: You've got also McCain/Lieberman, Guantanamo Bay. He's against drilling in Anwar.

DOLE: He's probably cast I don't know how many thousand votes. I don't agree with all of them. I tried to make it very objective there. I think he was wrong about Romney, saying that Romney was for a withdrawal date for troops in Iraq. I didn't interpret it that way, and I listened to both you and Alan talk about it.

HANNITY: You said in the letter to him, I can't recall a single instance where he didn't support the party on critical votes.

DOLE: What I meant was, when I would go to McCain and say I've got to have your vote, I can't recall a single time when he told me -- maybe it wasn't the party -- told me I can't vote with you.

HANNITY: I guess my question is he's changed that. I mean --

(CROSS TALK)

HANNITY: He also once said I'm sure Hillary Clinton would make a good president. Those are his words.

DOLE: Well, we make mistakes. I've made a lot, and I've heard a few on this program.

ALAN COLMES, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: You're looking when you said it. You're looking right.

HANNITY: I'm only saying, if Mitt Romney got the nomination, would you support him?

DOLE: I think he's a great candidate. I pointed out some of his strengths. I look back and wished I had the business experience that Romney has. Huckabee is still in the race. I think he's probably not a big factor. Romney is actually against two people. He's running against McCain and Huckabee.

HANNITY: I've listed --

DOLE: Did you read -- look at the percentage of scorecard on supporting the president.

HANNITY: That was until 1996. Tax cuts, Kennedy, Feingold, Lieberman, Guantanamo, Anwar, interrogation, he wouldn't abolish the death tax, he said wouldn't appeal Roe v. Wade. I'm laying out for you the conservative line. I'm a conservative and I think he's a liberal Republican. I do not believe -- at least since 1996 forwards, he's been a pretty liberal Republican.

I like him. I think he's a war hero. I think he's somebody we all admire.

DOLE: I certainly admire him. As I said in my note to Rush, I wore his bracelet. He didn't know about it until 1995. But I wore it for a couple of years. He was still in the Hanoi Hilton. I don't think we even have to mention the military part. I went back and looked at the American Conservative Union ratings that Senator Helms kind of dictated. He always had a hundred. And I was at a lower score than McCain.

COLMES: Senator, welcome back to our show. By the way, now that we have the Patriot Act, those emails were public the minute they --

DOLE: I guess so.

COLMES: Look, you know, you're not going to pull an Ann Coulter, are you, and say you're going to support Hillary Clinton?

DOLE: Oh, no. In fact, I sent Ann an email today and said don't support Hillary Clinton. I told them what happened in 1996. I had all my signs out Dole in 1996 and they changed them all and said, Dole is 96.

COLMES: You look great, by the way. You haven't changed. Are conservatives making a mistake attacking McCain on the issues that Sean mentioned, day after day? Is this a mistake the conservatives are making?

DOLE: I believe I'm a conservative. I think I've always been a conservative, when it comes to the issues, judges, pro-life, whatever. And I think you can -- it's a little over-kill there. John McCain was a good senator, as long as I worked with him and participated. We sat in meetings for hour after hour after hour. He does have a little independent streak.

COLMES: We don't want that.

DOLE: We wanted it as a senator, we don't want -- you know -- but --

COLMES: The "Washington Post" today had a piece out about -- suggesting that there was a lack of goodwill toward John McCain on the part of some establishment senators.

DOLE: That's because he's going after their earmarks. He even voted on two from Kansas. They weren't pork barrel, obviously. But he said, I'm going to have to vote on this. I said, go ahead. He lost. It was across the board. It was fair. And I think he's a man of integrity. But Romney is a good candidate. Huckabee's a good candidate. I don't think he probably has too much of a chance now, but --

COLMES: If McCain is the nominee, and it looks increasingly likely that he would be, who would be a good vice-presidential choice for him?

DOLE: I don't really know. I hadn't really thought about it. But Florida's a key state, and Governor Crist is very popular and gave John McCain a very key endorsement. He was my state chairman when I ran, great guy.

COLMES: He would be a good choice.

DOLE: Great choice, yes. There are others. You could start making a list. And maybe Huckabee would be on the list. I don't know. I had Judge Scalia on my list. Probably shouldn't --

COLMES: Judge Scalia was on your list to be VP?

DOLE: I never contacted him.

COLMES: Is that right?

DOLE: Yes.

HANNITY: You should have had Rush Limbaugh.

DOLE: I had the same problem with some people; Bob Dole isn't conservative enough. Well, this is one way to take care of that.

COLMES: Is there a real division in the party, that's either good or bad for the party, about not being conservative enough, or is it a big tent party, where you can have a John McCain and a Jesse Helms in the same party?

DOLE: No, I think -- we have our differences, but one thing that's going to unite us would be if Hillary Clinton's nominated. I personally like Hillary Clinton. But I think she would unite the Republican party, all tiers of it, T-I-E-R-S.

COLMES: Thank you for spelling it. We like to have those reading along with the show.

DOLE: Where there's another tear of the day.

COLMES: Mitch McConnell, the minority leader, how important is it that a Senator McCain get along with someone like Mitch? You've been in that position yourself, where McConnell is. And according to the "Washington Post" today, they're not particularly close.

DOLE: I think they can bridge that gap. It's not a bridge too far. It's one that they're going to work on. If McCain is the nominee, we're going to get together. If Romney's the nominee or Huckabee is the nominee, we're a Republican party. Not everybody agrees with Hannity.

COLMES: Who do you prefer?

DOLE: I prefer Elizabeth's reelection in North Carolina.

HANNITY: What do you mean, not everybody agrees with me? Where am I wrong?

DOLE: All those other things you read. I agree with those things that you read, but --

HANNITY: You agree with me?

COLMES: Do you have a preference between McCain and Romney?

DOLE: Well, my heart's kind of with McCain, but, again, I'm staying out of it. I don't have any dogs -- I don't want to say dogs. That would say you don't have a good candidate. But I don't have anybody in this fight.

HANNITY: Alan likes Republicans fighting. He's happy as can be.

DOLE: We're always fighting. I had to take on Steve Forbes. He spent 40 million dollars, and pour Newt Gingrich -- wasn't his fault -- when you shut down the government you're not too popular. And every ad the Clintons ran had me and Newt in it.

COLMES: The way you guys are going, my job's almost not necessary at this point. But listen, --

HANNITY: Are you quitting, retiring?

COLMES: I got him excited. You hear that?

DOLE: No, I'm the middle, I'm the moderate here.

COLMES: You are. Thank you so much, senator, great to see you. Thanks for being here tonight.

New numbers show Hillary Clinton losing support from her most important constituency. Dick Morris on why some women are starting to turn on to the New York senator, coming up next on HANNITY AND COLMES.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ROBERT DENIRO, ACTOR: One person has given me hope. One person has made me believe that we can make a change. That person is Barack Obama.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COLMES: There's some concerns tonight about Hillary Clinton bleeding support among her most important constituency, women. Our very own Kirsten Powers wrote today in the "New York Post," quote, "according to Gallup, she's lost eight points among women, while he's gained 13. No other recent polls show such a gender swing. So Gallup's numbers could be exaggerated, but Obama couldn't be gaining ground at his rate without cutting into Hillary's female support. In multiple polls, Clintons lead among women has dropped into the single digits, coinciding with Obama's rise in national polls over the course of the last month."

Joining us now with more is former Clinton adviser Dick Morris. For his latest columns and news letters, you can sign up at DickMorris.com. Haven't the polls been awfully wrong over the last few years? Do we believe the numbers we just read?

DICK MORRIS, FORMER CLINTON ADVISER: There are two big problems that you have in any poll with Hillary and Obama in it. One is the Doug Wilder effect. A lot of people felt that the New Hampshire polls were wrong because a lot of people may not have said that they were going to not vote for a black candidate.

But the other effect that's more serious, in my view, is that you have to guess at what percent of the vote is going to be female, because women answer the phone more than men. And in New Hampshire, they got them wrong. They said 52-48. It was, in fact, 60-40. And these polls could be understating the female vote.

What's undeniable is whether he surged from way behind to slightly behind or from way behind to slightly ahead, Obama has surged and Hillary is going into this election --

COLMES: There's no way right now to call what's going to happen tomorrow, is there?

MORRIS: You can't. It's that close, but it's close not in the sense of being one or two points and it doesn't move. It's close of her going down and him going up. And you don't know if it's going to freeze here or if the lines are going to cross. And I think that what's happening is that you call it the wow factor. There are a lot of voters who are supporting Obama who are suddenly seeing Obama and suddenly coming on and being thrilled.

And the flip side of that is that Hillary has made her inevitability and electability such a core part of her argument that defeat causes defeat. So the headlines in the newspapers this morning, Obama erases Clinton lead, are the worst possible headlines for Hillary.

COLMES: You said something early on which I didn't agree with, and now it seems more and more likely, that if Hillary gets the nomination, she might choose Barack Obama as a running mate because of the numbers, the sheer numbers.

MORRIS: I think Hillary would probably like to choose Richardson, but she might have to choose Obama. Right now I don't think we should be talking about Hillary's running mate. If I had to absolutely guess right now, I would think that maybe the advantage is more with Obama.

HANNITY: I would agree with you, Dick. And welcome back to the program. Two national polls now have Obama winning in this race, two of them. And then here we are on a primary eve, what does Hillary do? She cries the day before the primary. What is this pattern that's emerging.

MORRIS: It's worked once. I think that from the Republican -- the other thing that's going on is that Republicans, rightly or wrongly, are believing that McCain is winning, so a lot of independents are going to say, I don't need to vote in the Republican primary for McCain. I can vote in the Democratic primary for Obama, because my central interest is in stopping Hillary.

HANNITY: What do you think of the battle that's going on -- we were discussing with Bob Dole -- over conservatives concerned about the liberal tendencies -- you dismiss this, but I don't.

MORRIS: I think it all has an academic quality, because I don't think that Romney is going to be the president. I think that it's going to be almost impossible for a Republican to win this year. But with McCain, there is a prayer against Hillary. There's a prayer of a chance for two reasons. First of all, the very immigration bill that the conservatives hate gives him the capacity to get Latino votes. And secondly, all of that votes -- those votes that you listed that conservatives don't like mean that a lot of independents and moderates and even liberals, who vote for Obama, can't stand Hillary, could switch and vote for McCain. And that's why McCain is --

(CROSS TALK)

MORRIS: That's why McCain is running 12 points better than Romney against Hillary.

HANNITY: But I think a lot of world -- as much as we pay close attention to these elections, a lot of people still aren't paying attention to all of this, Dick. And once people get to know Romney, and compare and contrast, there will not be as much comparison and contrasting with McCain versus Hillary on immigration, on taxes, on --

MORRIS: But that's the point. If you don't like Hillary Clinton, if you just can't stand the lady, but you're worried about global warming and you're worried about water boarding and you're worried earmarks and you're worried about tobacco, put somebody up with a record on this stuff, because a lot of those people are going to switch. It was the same reason Richard Nixon won in 1968. A lot of the liberals were so angry at Lyndon Johnson that they voted for Nixon.

HANNITY: We're going to see you during our special tomorrow, HANNITY AND COLMES, 12:00 Eastern, right here on the Fox News Channel, Super Tuesday. And coming up, the countdown to Super Tuesday is nearly complete. Frank Luntz takes the pulse of the people heading into tomorrow's all important election show-down. He's got a special celebrity guest again with him tonight. That's straight ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HANNITY: We're just hours away from Super Tuesday, where voters in more than 20 states go to the polls and cast their votes. And Senator McCain is widely considered the front-runner in the GOP field, but Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee, they are not giving up. So, as the clock ticks down to tomorrow's Republican show down, our own Frank Luntz is there with the polling of the people. And he's also joined by a special guest. Who is it tonight, Frank?

FRANK LUNTZ, FRANKLUNTZ.COM: Tonight I would like to introduce Richard Schiff. You may recognize him as Toby from "The West Wing."

HANNITY: "The West Wing."

LUNTZ: One of your favorite shows, Sean. But before we get to that, I want you to see the one ad that our swing voters -- and everyone behind me has changed their minds at some point in the last six weeks. I want you to see the one ad that they picked out as the one that they liked the best, the one that they'd like to see the next Republican nominee, and it's not an ad by the front-runner. Let's watch our dials as they react to an ad by Mitt Romney.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ROMNEY: She hasn't run a city. She has never run anything. And the idea that she could learn to be president as an internship just doesn't make any sense. I've spent my life running things. I learned how to run a business. I learned how to run a state. I ran the Olympics. In each case, I brought change. If there's ever been a time we need to a change in Washington to bring strength to America, it's now.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LUNTZ: What was it? What was it about that ad that was so impressive to you?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: That she hasn't run a corner store. That was so effective. And it just inspired me, completely.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That he's a businessman. He knows how to run things.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Excellent posturing. There was a very clear delineation between his candidacy and her candidacy.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He sounds like a guy that's experienced in running businesses, governments, and the Olympics.

LUNTZ: How many of you are leaning toward John McCain?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think it's most effective in that it shows her weaknesses more so than it does Romney's strengths?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think it was great because he didn't have to continue to put her down. He made one simple comment about her and left it at that and reflected on all of his points.

LUNTZ: Let's talk about Senator McCain. He's the front-runner now. Why did you switch to him?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Because I think he's the strongest leader. He has the strongest leadership qualities.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: McCain is for change. He's conservative, and he's a strong leader.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Foreign policy.

LUNTZ: What do you mean by foreign policy?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Anti-Iran.

LUNTZ: I've got a question, Richard. You watched them react to the ads. You hear their comments now. Is this any way to pick a president?

RICHARD SCHIFF, ACTOR: It reminds me in the acting world of one really long audition. We don't ever know. I used to direct theater and I used to direct television and you never know how an actor's actually going to do until they get into the character, they get into the body of the character.

It's similar here. We don't -- we're not going to know -- and this is just -- it's an audition. It's a chance to get a sampling. It doesn't tell us anything. I have one question I'd like to ask them.

LUNTZ: Please do.

SCHIFF: I was curious, because a couple of the Hillary -- anti- Hillary ads seem to be really effective with this group. What if it had been an anti-Obama ad? Would it have been as equally compelling to you?

LUNTZ: Who says yes, raise your hands? Who says no? What's the difference between running an anti-Hillary and an anti-Obama ad?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Because Obama doesn't have the same personality as Hillary. Obama is much more

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Trustworthy.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Trustworthy.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He has much more likability.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes, he's more likable.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: She's for specific plans rather than platitudes, as Obama is.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No, there's no comparison between Obama and Hillary, as far as I'm concerned. He's honest, and --

LUNTZ: Would you consider voting for him?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Obama?

LUNTZ: Yes.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes, I would.

LUNTZ: How many of you in this room would consider voting for Obama, if he were the Democratic nominee, raise your hands? One, two, three, four of you -- five of you.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: If McCain ran, I would.

LUNTZ: This is important. The idea that -- these are solid Republicans, would actually consider voting for a Democrat; do you think Democrats are going to get that message?

SCHIFF: That's a good question. I don't think the voters should. I think they should vote their conscience. But it's a very fascinating aspect of this.

LUNTZ: Alan, this is an awesome, awesome election. It's 24 hours away. And later on in the show, we're going to be doing the Democrats.

COLMES: Thank you very much, Frank. Moore with Frank Luntz coming up later in tonight's HANNITY AND COLMES. And coming up as well, Barack Obama closing in on Hillary Clinton's lead in California. Will there be a bellwether state surprise? We'll speak with Clinton supporter Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, coming up on HANNITY AND COLMES.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(NEWSBREAK)

COLMES: On the eve of Super Tuesday, the race is tight for Democratic candidates Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. The big story is delegate- rich California, which was once considered a Clinton stronghold. It is now up for grabs.

Joining us now from a Clinton campaign event in Los Angeles is Los Angeles Mayor and Hillary Clinton supporter, Antonio Villaraigosa.

Mayor, thank you so much for coming on here tonight. Appreciate it very much.

MAYOR ANTONIO VILLARAIGOSA, LOS ANGELES: Thank you, Alan. It's good to be here with you.

COLMES: What's going on in California and why the tightening in the race? The latest poll I'm looking at, the Reuters poll, has actually, Barack 46-40 over Hillary Clinton. What's going on in California?

VILLARAIGOSA: We heard that in New Hampshire, and we heard it in Nevada, as well. Our internal polling has us up. We fully expect to be successful tomorrow night, and we do because we have a great campaign organization. We're in every part of the state, and we're doing well among almost every part of the electorate.

COLMES: Why do you think, though, I mean, it is tightening, and it's tightening especially among the key group in Hillary Clinton, which happens to be women. What do you suspect is going on that's causing that tightening in that particular group?

VILLARAIGOSA: It's called a campaign. Both -- both candidates are working hard in this state. They've had surrogates up and down in every part of this state. People are starting to make a decision. And it's going to be a close race.

But we fully expect to be successful, and we do because California has a long history with Senator Clinton. They know her, they trust her. They know that she'll chart a new beginning for America on the first day in office. She'll take on the challenge of withdrawing our troops to safety as quickly as possible from Iraq, focus on the crisis of health care in America, get if economy moving again, and do something to address our over- dependence on foreign oil.

COLMES: One of the key sectors being looked at is the Latino votes, even talked about as even being a firewall for Hillary Clinton. What do you see -- do you agree with that assessment, and how do you see that vote being split?

VILLARAIGOSA: I think somewhere in the neighborhood of 65 percent, two to one, in favor of Senator Clinton. And, again, I think it has a lot to do with the fact that they know her. They know Bill Clinton. They remember the Clinton years when deficits were down and surpluses were up. They remember the 22 million jobs that were created. They remember the effort to reduce the backlog for citizenship.

They know her; they trust her; they believe that she's the most capable to move us ahead.

COLMES: Do you see any big policy differences between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama?

VILLARAIGOSA: You know, in almost every issue there's a great deal of agreement. They certainly have more in common than there are differences.

Probably the biggest difference is on the issue of universal health care, where Senator Clinton has a plan to ensure every Californian, and Senator Barack Obama's leaves about 15 million out of coverage.

HANNITY: Hey, Mr. Mayor, it's Sean Hannity, your favorite conservative. How are you?

VILLARAIGOSA: You are my favorite conservative. Good to see you.

HANNITY: You're a great American, Mister...

VILLARAIGOSA: Don't tell Rush Limbaugh that.

HANNITY: All right. Now listen, so that's Hillary talking in the background, right?

VILLARAIGOSA: Yes, it is.

HANNITY: All right. I'll tell you what. We'll wait. All you've got to do is walk over and say, "Mrs. Clinton, Sean Hannity wants to say hi." What do you think?

VILLARAIGOSA: I'll tell her, but she's -- she's actually in New York, because we're in a virtual town hall, 21 cities across the country. So that's her voice, but she's not here physically, but I know she'd love to hear from you.

HANNITY: Why do I doubt that? But let me ask you this. The establishment, Mr. Mayor, seems to be rejecting her in a lot of ways.

When I watched this weekend, I watched a lot of the coverage right here on the FOX News Channel, and you have Oprah Winfrey; and you have Caroline Kennedy; and you have Maria Shriver; and you have John Kerry; and you have Pat Leahy.

I mean, so many of the establishment people are rejecting the Clintons in favor of Barack Obama. That's got to be a concern of the campaign, isn't it?

VILLARAIGOSA: Well, those are -- those are people that I respect, and certainly, I have a long relationship in the case of some of them. I can tell you, though, that if the establishment is opposed to her candidacy, it has a lot to do with the fact that she's going to make change in the White House. She's ready on the first day in office to do that. She's going to take on the status quo, and I think that's why she's doing as well as she's doing.

HANNITY: That's certainly one interpretation. Couldn't the other be that they know the Clintons, they don't like their style of politics. There has been many a Democrat in this campaign that has been excoriating the Clintons for the way they have been attacking Barack Obama, either through themselves or their surrogates.

Are you -- are you at all critical of the negative attacks against Barack Obama by Bill Clinton and others?

VILLARAIGOSA: You know, this is the deepest, most talented field of presidential candidates in my memory. Probably not since 1968 when Bobby Kennedy and Hubert Humphrey and Gene McCarthy were running can we remember this quality of candidates.

Barack Obama is a great candidate, would be a great candidate for our party. But Hillary Clinton has the experience that we need. Obviously, it's a campaign, so they're going to compare and contrast, but I'll tell you, I'm proud of her campaign.

HANNITY: All right. Let me ask you one controversial issue came up this week, Mr. Mayor, and I'm sure there's no surprise that you and I may have a disagreement on it here.

She was talking about health care, and she said, "I think there are a number of mechanisms that are possible," including, quote, "going after people's wages, automatic enrolment." In other words, garnishing people's wages to ensure this mandatory health plan of hers. Do you support that?

VILLARAIGOSA: Well, I didn't hear her say that. I know what she has proposed, and she's proposed a plan that includes every single American, that allows you to keep the health plan that you have if you like it, and if you think it's good enough, allows you to have the congressional plan.

You know, I don't know about you, but I'd like that plan. And her plan would include every single American, and that's what I know about it.

COLMES: Mr. Mayor, we thank you for coming on, hope you come back and see us here on "Hannity & Colmes." Appreciate your time tonight.

VILLARAIGOSA: I'd like to do that.

COLMES: Thanks very much, sir.

Let's check in with Greta Van Susteren, Greta telling us what she's looking at, at 10 Eastern right after "Hannity & Colmes."

Good evening, Greta.

GRETA VAN SUSTEREN, HOST, "ON THE RECORD": Good evening, Alan.

Tonight, did Joran Van Der Sloot watch her die? Her being Natalee Holloway. We have all the very latest. Joran Van Der Sloot caught on tape. His lawyer's here. We're going to find out exactly what his lawyers are saying, as well as the lawyer for the parents of Natalee Holloway and much more.

Back to you.

HANNITY: And coming up next, in a few hours voters from 24 states will head to the polls, but it seems that one state may decide the nominees on both sides. We'll tell you which one and why it's so important. Our pollsters coming up next, straight ahead.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RUDY GIULIANI (R), FORMER MAYOR OF NEW YORK: John, you're a great friend. More than that, though, you are a great American hero, and you are going to be our next president and a great American president. John McCain.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HANNITY: So here we are just hours away from voters going to the polls in the Super Tuesday states and across the country. Both races appear too close to call. As we've already talked about tonight, California might be the key state for both sides.

Now, the latest Rasmussen polls has Barack Obama pulling ahead of Hillary Clinton by one point. That's 45-44 percent. But that's still within the margin of error.

On the Republican side in California, the Rasmussen poll tracking has -- well -- John McCain and Mitt Romney now tied at 38 percent. And late today the Romney campaign said they are still competing in California to win.

Other states like Missouri, Georgia, Connecticut also have races that are tight on both sides of the ticket, meaning that this could be one of the closest nominating contests in history.

Joining us now, pollster Scott Rasmussen and the author of the new book, "Declaring Independence: The Beginning of the End of the Two-Party System," Democratic pollster Doug Schoen.

All right. Scott, let me first of all start with you. Is Mike Huckabee serving as a spoiler, splitting the vote in the Republican race?

SCOTT RASMUSSEN, RASMUSSEN REPORTS: You know, Mitt Romney is certainly making that charge, and there's no doubt that the anti-Huck -- the anti-McCain vote is split a little bit between Huckabee and Mitt Romney.

However, some people are going too far with this. It's not as if every vote for Huckabee is a vote that McCain -- that Romney would get in the end.

HANNITY: All right, but you are seeing, as is John Zogby, actually, in his poll today, our good friend, has -- has Romney now up by eight. And you have been showing the surge by Romney in states like California, Georgia, and around the country.

But he seems to be stopped because of the Huckabee factor, and you don't think Huckabee can win, do you?

RASMUSSEN: I don't think Huckabee can win, and quite frankly, it's a long shot for Mitt Romney at this point. Where Romney has really gained has been in the last week has been in the south, an area that he was very weak in. He's had trouble getting traction all year, but now in this last week ever since Florida, he seemed to pick up some ground there, and he is moving a little bit in California.

HANNITY: And this is in large part because of this argument that Senator McCain is on the more liberal wing on the Republican Party and he represents more traditional Reagan conservatism? Correct?

RASMUSSEN: Correct. That is -- it is -- as a talk show host, Sean, you may have heard some of them are unhappy with John McCain.

HANNITY: Is that right? A couple of them. I like him personally. There's a difference.

Now, let me go to you, Doug, on the Democratic side.

DOUG SCHOEN, AUTHOR, "DECLARING INDEPENDENCE": Yes.

RASMUSSEN: We were just discussing before coming on the air here, this Barack Obama phenomenon is real, and you know, if you ask me, it's at least a 50-50 toss-up. He can literally shock the world tomorrow night.

SCHOEN: I think that's right. I think that right now all the momentum is with Barack Obama. He is within single digits in New Jersey. Obviously, the Zogby poll, Scott Rasmussen's poll, has him narrowly ahead in California. And every other state is within a few points. He's got the momentum.

HANNITY: What's happened here? Here Hillary Clinton -- this was supposed to be a coronation. Bill Clinton goes out on the campaign trail. He implodes in a large way. What happened to the Hillary campaign?

SCHOEN: I think that the absence of a clear and defined message for Hillary combined with...

HANNITY: What is her message?

SCHOEN: Well, she's saying it's experience and change, which in a Democratic primary is not as good a message as pure change and bring in a new face to clean up a mess.

COLMES: It really wasn't a coronation any time during the last couple of months. I mean, maybe at one time it seemed like that was the case. But there was a real fight going on the last couple months. It looked like Hillary was inching ahead. Now you're saying it's going the other way. What happened there?

SCHOEN: I think -- I think what happened is after New Hampshire there were a spate of endorsements for Barack Obama. And Democrats basically decided that they want change, that they want an alternative, a new face. And Obama's benefited.

COLMES: Scott Rasmussen, do those endorsements mean anything? I mean, do you look at a politician, as much as I like Ted Kennedy and agree with him, and that bothers a lot of conservatives. Hannity goes crazy when I say that. But I'm not going to put -- my vote is not based on what Ted Kennedy says. Most people make their own choices, not based on what a politician says.

RASMUSSEN: Most people make their own choices. The endorsements, though, can play a very important role for a candidate like Barack Obama. He's someone that looks attractive to a lot of people. He sounded good. He gave great speeches. But there's a lot of people who say, "We don't know him as well as we know Hillary Clinton."

When a Ted Kennedy or a Caroline Kennedy comes out and says, "We think this is the guy," that's an important endorsement.

COLMES: By the way, I talked to Bill Clinton earlier tonight, to be on my radio show, and he was talking about how...

HANNITY (doing Clinton imitation): How are you doing?

COLMES: Actually, he sounded a lot more like Bill Clinton than you.

HANNITY (doing Clinton imitation): Tell that Hannity guy to shut up.

COLMES: You really can't control yourself, can you?

HANNITY: Just...

(CROSSTALK)

COLMES: So he -- but the point, there are other Kennedy family, RFK's sons and family, who supported Hillary Clinton, but that didn't get the attention of Caroline Kennedy.

SCHOEN: That's the key issue. What Scott Rasmussen said is exactly right. The credibility enhancement that Barack Obama got from Ted Kennedy and from Caroline Kennedy thwarts the endorsement of RFK Jr., and that's what's giving him the added boost.

COLMES: On -- let's talk about the Republicans for a second here, Scott Rasmussen. Is it a done deal that John McCain will be the nominee of the Republican Party? And do the conservatives, who have been critical of him, as you pointed out, delicately, have to somehow reconcile what they've been saying with what's likely to happen?

RASMUSSEN: Well, it's very likely that John McCain is going to be the nominee. Our projections show that he'll end up with over 700 delegates after tomorrow. That would mean that Mitt Romney has to win two-thirds of the remaining delegates to catch him. That's a tall order.

What we may be seeing is the first stage of grief that some of these folks are going through. And what John McCain has to count on is that Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama can unite the Democratic Party.

COLMES: Right. Do we have a nominee on either side, Doug, after Super -- after tomorrow?

SCHOEN: We may have a nominee on the Republican side. On the Democratic side, almost certainly we will not. But what Scott is speaking to is the divisions in the electorate that I argue in my book, "Declaring Independence," require unity, not division.

COLMES: And that's what people want on both sides.

SCHOEN: Absolutely.

COLMES: All right. Scott, Doug, we thank you both very much.

Coming up, Frank Luntz will be back with an all-new focus group. This time he talks with undecided Democratic voters. We'll see what they have to say, coming up.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ROMNEY: More syrup there. See, I believe in the emergent method. None of those little -- little wimpy stuff here. We're not going to be a stickler (ph) with the syrup. What's going on here?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COLMES: It's turning out to be a very close race for the Democrats. It will likely be the undecided voters who will determine the fates of senators Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. So who are the undecided Democrats leaning toward?

We are back now with Frank Luntz, an all-new focus group and, of course, actor Richard Schiff.

Frank, what do the independent Democrats say?

FRANK LUNTZ, POLLSTER: Well, it's interesting, because all these people changed their points of view. We've still got one undecided individual. We'll ask him why. I mean, it's only a few hours to go. But all these people changed their point of view in the past six weeks or so.

But before I do, before I introduce Richard Schiff, I want to focus on the one ad that did better than any other. Now, these people split half between Clinton and Obama, but when they're dialing, when they're reacting, the one ad that did the best is the ad that aired in selected states in the Super Bowl yesterday.

Let's take a look at the ad that they liked the most.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We want an end to this war, and we want diplomacy and peace. Not only can we save the environment, we can create jobs and opportunity. We're tired of fear. We're tired of division. We want something new. We want to turn the page. The world as it is, is not the world that we have to be.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LUNTZ: So it was a smart decision. That ad aired during the Super Bowl. You changed your mind this morning?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This morning.

LUNTZ: What happened?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Actually, I was talking to some friends and thought about Hillary -- I think Hillary would actually be a better -- or a stronger leader. She's got more experience. But I actually think Obama is more electable. I think, given the current climate, he's more electable.

LUNTZ: You all changed since the debates?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I definitely want a candidate that is going to defeat the Republicans.

LUNTZ: And who's that?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Obama.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I still like Clinton, but I'm hoping she can beat out whoever is there. I mean, I loved that ad because I'm in the military. I'm in the Reserves. I've been deployed. I've seen people come back maimed. I want us to end this war.

LUNTZ: And you think Hillary Clinton is the better one to do that?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think so.

LUNTZ: Who's gone back and forth? We've had some that have been with one and then the other. You started with?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I started with Clinton. Then I went to Obama. But I feel that he hasn't -- I mean, he hasn't -- he's not quite got there. And Clinton has more pedigree, and Obama himself said he feels she's got a stronger chance than him.

LUNTZ: Show of hands. How many feel that Hillary Clinton is more experienced, has more experience than Obama? So you're almost unanimous on experience. How many of you think Obama is more electable than Hillary Clinton?

So Obama has got electability; she's got experience. You played a character whose whole focus was communication, was about language. As an independent observer, which of these two candidates communicates better?

RICHARD SCHIFF, ACTOR: It's a great question. And I think it depends. I think sometimes in the debate, because Hillary has a little bit more depth of knowledge, it seems, then she communicates better. But if you ever hear Obama in person, it's phenomenal how he communicates to people.

So I think when it comes to inspiration, it's Obama; when it comes to experience, it's Hillary.

LUNTZ: And you heard the Republicans before. They're much more positive towards their candidates, both of them, than the Republicans. You don't hear any negative here. Does that surprise you?

SCHIFF: No, not based on what I've seen. No, it doesn't surprise me at all. I came away from the debates -- I was at the debates the other night. And everything that I heard from people was that they were proud to be Democrats. They were proud to be Americans. And it's fantastic.

LUNTZ: You've got a question?

HANNITY: Frank Luntz, Sean Hannity. All your Democratic friends there.

Here's a question, because likability I understand about Barack Obama. Can you ask your audience to name any one specific accomplishment that they know of?

LUNTZ: OK. Can you name me a specific accomplishment of Barack Obama? Laurie.

Can you name one?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: No.

LUNTZ: Can you name one? No.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: On his -- experience would be...

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He's a great oratator (sic) like Jesse Jackson.

HANNITY: What's that?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: A reform bill in Congress.

HANNITY: What?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Inspirational.

HANNITY: No, no!

LUNTZ: So basically, you're giving all his attributes rather than his...

COLMES: I want to thank them for driving Sean crazy.

LUNTZ: That's what they're doing.

HANNITY: That's my point. They just like the personality. They can't name a specific thing, and they're going to vote for the guy for president.

COLMES: You're going to hurt your hand if you keep doing that.

HANNITY: I don't get that.

LUNTZ: Do you want to ask them a question?

SCHIFF: Yes, I do have a question. If your candidate doesn't make it through the primary, how many of you would switch to McCain?

LUNTZ: Anybody. Any McCain people here?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: No.

LUNTZ: Anyone on the Republican side?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: No way.

SCHIFF: How many believe in the inspiration of the Giants over the experience of the Patriots?

LUNTZ: OK. We're not doing that. This is very important to viewers at home. John -- the Democrats are much more unified, they're much more aligned than the Republicans. This is a key indication of the challenges that the Republicans face come the fall.

Back to you, guys.

HANNITY: All right, Frank, good to see you, as always. I think that was very revealing.

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