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February 02, 2008

Conservatives Upset with John McCain

Hannity & Colmes

ALAN COLMES, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: Welcome to HANNITY AND COLMES. Get to our stop story tonight, Super Tuesday just four days away. Over the course of this week, the candidates squared off in a series of California debates. Our own Frank Luntz was there with his focus groups. Frank, we will begin tonight with the Democrats, where I hope we end in November. What are they saying?

FRANK LUNTZ, FRANKLUNTZ.COM: Well, the Democrats were ecstatic about their debate. People walked in liking both Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and they left loving them. In fact, for the first two thirds of the debate, we could not call a winner. It was only at the end, and we will get to one of those clips, that decided the difference between the two, the two leaders.

First, let's start with Barack Obama. When he talks about fiscal responsibility and takes on the Republican party, boy, does he score well among Democrats. Watch how quickly and how far the lines climb when he not only talks about fiscal responsibility, but then takes a shot at John McCain. Let's watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

OBAMA: How do we take the country in a new direction? How do we get past the divisions that have prevented us from solving these problems year after year after year? I don't think the choice is between black and white, or it's about gender, or religion. I don't think it's about young or old.

I think what is at stake right now is whether we are looking backwards or we are looking forwards. I think it is the past verses the future.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LUNTZ: You have got new, ending the divisions, forward, future. These are key words that Democratic voters are responding to. That was the very first clip that Barack Obama delivered. One of the things that we have discovered over the past six months is that Obama tends to be weakest in the first 30 minutes, and that's where Hillary is strongest. And as Obama goes through the debate, particularly those that last two hours, the reaction to him becomes more positive.

Conversely, Senator Clinton starts out very strong, because she is so disciplined and she has got those one minute sound bites down perfectly. But as time goes on, her answers tend to drift.

Now, we have got a second clip. That's where he talked about the future. This other clip of Obama, again, it's very positive, focuses on fiscal responsibility and then he takes a dig at his likely Republican opponent. Let's watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

OBAMA: I don't think the Republicans are going to be in a real strong position to argue fiscal responsibility when they have added four or five trillion worth of national debt. I am happy to have that argument. If John McCain, for example, is the nominee -- I respect that John McCain, in the first two rounds of Bush tax cuts said it is irresponsible that we have never before cut taxes at the same time as we are going into war.

And somewhere along the line, the Straight Talk Express lost some wheels.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LUNTZ: Hey, guys, that was Obama's best debate last night. The question that you have to ask is, with only five days to go before Super Tuesday, was it too late?

COLMES: Let me ask you something. This was the night after we had McCain and Romney really going at it with each other. It seems to me, the Democrats decided we don't want to be those two. We don't want to be perceived like that. And they both made very conciliatory opening statements. Was that your sense, that this was a calculated decision not to do what the Republicans are doing?

LUNTZ: Alan, the whole tone, the amount of applause between various people's responses, you could feel it in the debate. We could feel it because we held both debates at the same Fox studio. The Republicans were a little bit disappointed. They were a little bit frustrated and they didn't like the back and forth. In the next segment, we will get to that.

The Democrats, conversely, they can't wait for the election. It was palpable. We had people who were dialing and they put the dials down to applaud. That's how favorable it was.

Now we have got two Clinton segments to show you. One of them was the single best sound bite of the evening. I understand that Hillary Clinton has used this line before. This is an absolute home run for Democratic voters. Let's listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLINTON: I'm very proud of my husband's administration. I think that there were a lot of good things that happened and those good things really changed people's lives. The trajectory of change curing those eight years went from deficits and debt to a balanced budget and surplus, all those 22 million new jobs and hopefulness that people brought with them.

It did take a Clinton to clean after the first Bush, and I think it might take another one to clean up after the second Bush.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LUNTZ: Sean, before you jump in and start talking about Hillary Clinton, there was one weakness. And I said to you earlier that through two thirds of the debate our Democrats couldn't decide who was winning. They thought both were. When Hillary Clinton started to respond on the issue of Iraq, they felt it was equivocating. They felt that she wasn't clear. And they felt she was unwilling to say, I made a mistake.

This time watch how flat the lines are when Hillary Clinton responds to a question on Iraq.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLINTON: I believe we should withdraw starting within 60 days of my becoming president. Well that is a debate I welcome because I think the Democrats have a much better grasp of the reality of the situation that we are confronting. And we have to continue to press that case.

It will be important, however, that our nominee be able to present both a reasoned argument against continuing our presence in Iraq and the necessary credentials and gravitas for commander in chief.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LUNTZ: Sean, what do you think?

SEAN HANNITY, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: I like to give a little context to our viewers too. These are Democrats responding to a Democratic debate. But it is interesting to see what the Democrats like about their candidates and what they dislike. There is an interesting dynamic emerging. That is there are two polls out post-John Edwards leaving the Democratic race for the nomination.

The latest one is the Rasmussen Poll. It shows that almost all of the Edwards people are moving to Barack Obama. And the race has tightened between Hillary and Barack. It's now 44, 42 percent. She still has the unfavorable rating problem among the general electorate.

LUNTZ: Well, it's interesting that Barack Obama has a higher favorability rating among Democrats than Hillary Clinton does. The advantage that she still holds is in the area of experience. But, as the campaign goes forward, Obama's presentation, the language that he uses and his explanation on issues has brought him up. In the end, what separates Democrats from Republicans is that the Democrats genuinely love both candidates. On the Republican side, there is a lot of concern about all three of them.

HANNITY: Do you think, in the end -- let's assume for a moment that the candidate is going to be Hillary Clinton. Is it going to become, regardless of who wins the Republican nomination, that anybody but Hillary?

LUNTZ: Well, you know that we talked about this before. I have always thought that she had the advantage. What I have noticed in polling -- I have had the chance to look at cross tabs -- among independents, Hillary Clinton's numbers have begun to collapse in the last three weeks. Obama's campaign has started to strip away Senator Clinton's ability to appeal to the center of America. That's why you now have some polls showing John McCain beating Senator Clinton.

HANNITY: A lot more to come. Frank, stay right there. We appreciate you staying with us. Now, Senator McCain may be gaining traction in the White House race, but some prominent conservatives are refusing to accept him as their Republican candidate. Ann Coulter was on this program last night, said she would rather vote for and campaign for, get it, Hillary Clinton. Our panel debates McCain's conservative merits. That's all coming up straight ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HANNITY: And we continue now with our own Frank Luntz, words that work. Frank, I want to ask you this; Senator McCain has had a problem with conservatives, very specifically about the issue of tax cuts. He opposed the president's tax cut plan and he used class warfare rhetoric at the time when he said that, you know, these tax cuts, in large part, will benefit the wealthy too much. He is addressing this now in ads and in the debates. Is it working for him?

LUNTZ: It's working to some degree. It's a very legitimate point. The problem for Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee is that they haven't been able to present this argument in a way that's effective without seeming to be negative. Republicans, like Democrats, don't like this intercene warfare, as you will hear in a couple moments.

Now, when John McCain talks about cutting wasteful Washington spending and talks about keeping the tax cuts permanent, Republican voters stand up and applaud. Let's take a look at how they dialed John McCain's best line from the debate two nights ago.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MCCAIN: We've got to make the tax cuts permanent. We need to get rid of the Alternate Minimum Tax. We need to give people a depreciation in one year for their business and investment. We need to encourage research and developments and tax credits that are associated with it. We have got to stop the spending.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HANNITY: Frank, what's fascinating about this -- I want to ask you this, because those are the tax cuts he wants to make permanent that he didn't vote for, because he said they benefit the wealth wealthy too much. That's pretty fascinating to me.

LUNTZ: Sean, then you should have been in the debate. You should be running for president.

COLMES: Please, not that.

LUNTZ: The problem is that when Mitt Romney challenges him -- when the voters walked into the session two nights ago, they thought that Romney was better on the economy. When they walked out, they thought that Mike Huckabee was more likable, more sincere and the kind of person they felt more comfortable with. When John McCain talks about ending spending does really well.

There's something else that John McCain does really well. He has the best ads of any Republican candidates, including those who dropped out. Let me give you one example of a 30 second ad that really does well among Republican primary voters. Let's take a look.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: McCain spent five years in a box, baking in the heat.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Broken bones, torture, mistreatment, mal- nourished.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I took one look at him. He weighed about 95 pounds. I said, these people dumped this guy on me so they could claim that we let him die.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Hanging on by his fingernails, he stayed an American.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HANNITY: That's a powerful ad, Frank.

LUNTZ: It's powerful because it's personal, because nobody else has gone through this experience. As the ad continued, got more people talking about what he has done since then. John McCain consistently, particularly when he is the messenger -- he does the best of all the Republicans. I need to play for you the sound of Republicans who don't like this back and forth between John McCain and Mitt Romney, and walked away from the debate angry because of what they heard. Let's listen to our Republican sound.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: A lot of the questions were set up so we really couldn't understand -- like he had said about what they really believe in. And it just got them bickering and McCain just kept going on about -- he didn't answer the economic question, which it is important to a lot of us.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Real criticism would be valid, but a lot of these were, like some people said, twisting of words and deception. It wasn't -- it wasn't real criticism of policies.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: A lot of these things are fantasies. Let's have the real facts. What can really be done, not what you think you can do. What will be done?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COLMES: People don't like the arguing. You know, John McCain, there is a Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll out today, Frank, that has McCain in a two-person match up beating Romney 62 to 29 percent among Republicans. Is he making in-roads with the conservatives who for a long time have not been on the McCain bandwagon?

LUNTZ: What is happening right now is the Republicans are deciding, nationwide, that John McCain is the likely nominee and they're starting to coalesce behind him. What I think is even more important is where McCain stands among independents. With his rise in that swing vote, that critical swing vote, and Hillary Clinton's fall, Republicans have decided -- and I think accurately -- that John McCain is the most electable of the candidates.

Again, I've got to emphasize, they like Mike Huckabee. They believe that Mitt Romney is good on the economy. Over all, they are desperate to win. They want to defeat Hillary Clinton. They think John McCain has the greatest likelihood of winning over the swing votes.

COLMES: Again, in that same poll Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll you have Clinton over Obama 47 to 37 percent. Doesn't sound like a fall to me.

LUNTZ: No, remember that's the Democratic primary election.

COLMES: That's what I'm talking about.

LUNTZ: Alan, you have got to look at the center. I believe Barack Obama is a tougher candidate to defeat than Hillary Clinton. She is totally defined. She has a greater negative. There is more polarization. There is no one who doesn't have an opinion of her. For Barack Obama, among independents, he does even better than John McCain. But independents may have to choose between Hillary Clinton and John McCain.

COLMES: You are saying McCain is a tougher candidate to beat for Democrats.

LUNTZ: McCain is a much tougher candidate. What has happened in the last two weeks is that Clinton's numbers have fallen as Obama and Clinton have gone at each other. That puts Republicans in a stronger position.

COLMES: All right, Frank. WE thank you for being with us once again tonight. Coming up, Ann Coulter had some harsh words, to put it mildly, for John McCain last night and In the process made unbelievable admission. We will play you the shocking tape and our political panel will weigh in when we get back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

COULTER: Looking at substance rather than whether it's an R or D after his name manifestly, if he is our candidate, then Hillary is going to be our girl, Sean, because she is more conservative than he is. I think she would be stronger on the war on terrorism. I absolutely believe that.

HANNITY: That is the one area I disagree with you on.

COLMES: Can I just say one thing?

COULTER: Yes, we are going to sign up together. Let me explain that point on terrorism.

HANNITY: You would vote for Hillary over --

COULTER: Yes, I will campaign for her if it's McCain.

HANNITY: Is Hillary watching tonight? You just got an endorsement from Ann Coulter.

COLMES: I just heard the word no.

COULTER: I was touched when she cried.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COLMES: That was Ann Coulter on last night's HANNITY AND COLMES making her feelings about John McCain known. Personalities like Coulter have mounted a series of attacks against the Arizona senator, claiming that the Republican front runner isn't conservative enough. How far will they go? Is Hillary Clinton becoming the real cross over candidate for the right?

With us now is radio talk show host Tammy Bruce, Young Voter PAC executive director Jane Fleming Kleeb and TownHall.com columnist Amanda Carpenter.

Jane, as I said to Ann last night, my work is done. Let them go and kill each other. The fact that John McCain is not conservative enough for a whole cabal of right wing talkers is just crazy to me, because he has actually, what, worked with Ted Kennedy? He's worked with Russ Feingold? He's actually shown partisanship and that drives them crazy.

JANE FLEMING KLEEB, YOUNG VOTER PAC: Well, look, I think Ann is completely random. It won't be the first or the last time I say that. Normally, the Democrats welcome lots of people into the tent. We don't want her. She is filled with hate. I'm sure Clinton doesn't want her endorsement. I know a lot of Democratic voters don't want her anywhere near any of the campaign events we do. You guys can keep her on the right. We don't want her.

COLMES: It would be like me endorsing Hannity. He wouldn't want that when he runs for office.

HANNITY: No.

COLMES: Tammy Bruce, what say you about all of this? Where are you politically these days.

TAMMY BRUCE, RADIO TALK SHOW HOST: I was a Giuliani supporter, being pro-choice and fiscally conservative. He was the perfect candidate for me. At the same time, what you are seeing with Coulter and other people is the realization that these days letters after the names really don't matter. There is a different kind of coalescing of authentic conservatism that the Republican party isn't necessarily representing anymore.

But now people like me are moving toward -- and I endorse Romney today. So I think that's a big difference. The debate last night for me, I also will vote for Hillary if Huckabee is anywhere near the ticket. At the same time, there is -- also would consider that when it comes to McCain. I'm a Democrat. The difference is.

COLMES: What do you mean you are a Democrat? You said you are a Giuliani supporter. You are voting -- What do you mean you're a Democrat? You just said you're a Giuliani supporter, who is probably going to vote for anybody, as long as it's not Mike Huckabee, who are is a nominee for Republicans?

BRUCE: Here is the difference, again. Is the change in what the D and the R mean. I made my choice based on the individual. I voted for Bill Clinton twice, worked on that campaign in 1992. So I think there is a big difference now, as Americans in general are choosing based on the individual and not on party affiliation.

COLMES: Amanda Carpenter, I find this so -- I don't think anybody is saying, you know what? Ann Coulter is voting for Hillary, so Republicans en mass will now go vote for Hillary Clinton because of what Ann Coulter says. I hardly think that's the case.

AMANDA CARPENTER, TOWNHALL.COM: Well, I think what is important to take from what Ann is saying is that there is a definite frustration among the conservative base that we will not get a candidate that we want. I don't think that people will support voting for Hillary as a rebuke to this. But I do think there is the feeling that if we don't get what we want, maybe we should let things break until 2010, so we can clean and retake the Congress like we did in 1994. I think there is that feeling.

COLMES: I don't know what you say -- I don't know what you want. John McCain is not conservative enough? Mike Huckabee is not conservative enough. Mitt Romney, I don't know how you support him if you really want a true conservative. He's flip flopped on every major issue, from immigration to abortion to --

(CROSS TALK)

BRUCE: Here is the biggest problem. The biggest problem these days really is about getting somebody who is not lying to you. It is about having a candidate who actually doesn't have contempt for the population. McCain does. He has contempt for us. Huckabee clearly is using religion as a weapon, which is harmful to all of us. At least Romney, even though I disagree with him on some very significant issues, is a man who is reasonable, who works with people and who will help keep this nation strong so I can continue to do my work.

HANNITY: Jane, by the way, you can keep in your party Harry "the war is lost" Reid. You can keep John -- our Marines kill innocent civilians in cold blood. You can keep John Kerry, the guy that said that terrorizing our troops --

(CROSS TALK)

HANNITY: Jane, you can keep them all. You can have all of them, because that's your party that undermines our troop morale and emboldens our enemy. They are on your side.

KLEEB: Sean, there is not one single Democrat that wants our troops in harm's way and there is not one single Democrat --

HANNITY: Not one single Republican that I know that sent troops to fight and while they are fighting the war he sent them to fight tells them they have lost, not one, not a single one.

KLEEB: How about President Bush not making sure there is not proper health care for our troops when they get back. Or how about President Bush not sending troops who actually had PTSD and hearing problems right back into the front lines.

HANNITY: Tammy Bruce, my good friend. Welcome back.

BRUCE: Thank you.

HANNITY: Ann Coulter saying, under no circumstance is she going to campaign for Hillary, vote for Hillary? I love Ann, but under no circumstances would I ever, ever, ever pull the lever and vote for Hillary Clinton, ever.

BRUCE: I understand. I think, one, she would, of course, not campaign for her. But I think what she was illustrating is the level of frustration and the fact that among conservatives it really is about the issue of personal principles and dignity and Hillary Clinton, for all of her faults, at least is honest about the nature of who she is.

She also will find, as we saw when it comes to the Clinton administration, both she and her husband, threw gays under the bus. They betrayed feminist and the gay community and it proved to people that she is an opportunist first and can be swayed.

HANNITY: Senator McCain is not a conservative. I'm a Reagan conservative. He is not a Reagan conservative. That, to me, is just indisputable. That is a fact. But, with that said, he is a genuine real, American war hero, and while I have my substantive disagreements on all the issues we have talked about, immigration, amnesty, McCain-Feingold, the whole list of it, you know, at the end of the day, if it comes down to him being the commander and chief for the troops and Hillary Clinton, I don't see that that's going to be an issue for conservatives.

BRUCE: It's about -- if it's about being -- I think everyone who has served is a hero. What are we going to do, elect John Murtha. Let's be honest.

HANNITY: Would you vote for Hillary over McCain.

BRUCE: I would consider it, yes. That's not something that I would take out of the possibilities.

HANNITY: I -- I -- I

COLMES: She is a Democrat. Tammy says she is a Democrat.

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