February 20, 2008
Arizona Dems On the Rise
By
Reid Wilson
In Arizona, once a solidly red state, the Democratic Party has seen an ascendancy far faster than any might have expected. Aided in part by an internal Republican split over how to handle illegal immigration, Democrats there have successfully tapped into both emerging constituencies, like the state's rapidly increasing Hispanic population, and traditional Republican territory, like business interests, to find new fundraising and electoral success. And as two more GOP-held congressional seats come open next year, Republicans could find their once-powerful position in the state eroding even further.
The 2006 elections were not the best Republicans in Arizona have ever had. Retiring Republican Rep. Jim Kolbe's Eighth District, in the southeast corner of the state, went to Democrat Gabrielle Giffords, and another Democrat, State Senator and former Tempe Mayor Harry Mitchell, beat incumbent Republican J.D. Hayworth in his suburban Phoenix district. Overnight, the state's House delegation went from a three-to-one GOP advantage to an even four-to-four split.
Still, it could have been worse: As Democratic Governor Janet Napolitano rolled to a 28-point victory over an underfunded Republican, GOP Senator Jon Kyl fought back what looked to be a strong challenge developer and former Democratic State Party chairman Jim Pederson. Pederson dumped nearly $11 million of his own money into the race, but still came up ten points short. This year, neither Kyl nor Napolitano are on the ballot, and while John McCain's Senate seat isn't on the ballot, the senior senator will be running for a certain higher office that could drive Republican turnout.
Democrats, who were bullish on their chances of taking both seats before the retirement announcements, are now positively giddy at the prospects of taking a six-to-two lead in the delegation. It does not help Republicans that several strong candidates have already backed out after exploring bids.
In the state's First District, three-term incumbent Rick Renzi is retiring after a string of ethics problems very nearly cost him his seat in 2006. Several months before Election Day, Renzi's wife's business was raided by the FBI, and House GOP leaders forced him to take a leave of absence from the committees to which he was assigned. While he denies wrongdoing and has not been charged in a crime, it was only thanks to a weak Democratic opponent that he kept his seat. Renzi announced in August that he would not run for re-election.
His district looks ripe for a Democratic takeover. President Bush won the sprawling district, which meanders from the Four Corners all the way south to Casa Grande, just south of Phoenix, by small eight- and five-point margins in 2004 and 2000, respectively. The district's population, already heavily minority, is only becoming more diverse: Census figures showed just 58% of the population is white, along with hefty Native American (22%) and Latino (16%) segments.
Early in the cycle, Democrats recruited State Representative Ann Kirkpatrick to run against Renzi. The state has an unique resign-to-run law, requiring candidates who announce intentions to run for higher office before the calendar year in which the election is held to vacate their current offices. While that law has caused some candidates to delay their announcements until they would not have to resign, Kirkpatrick had no qualms and stepped down last summer to focus full-time on her campaign. The move has paid off, to some extent: Kirkpatrick had raised more than $400,000 through the end of the year and banked nearly $300,000.
Republicans have been less fortunate in finding a replacement. Former State Senators Tom O'Halleran and Jake Flake (the uncle of current Congressman Jeff Flake), each of whom would have proven strong candidates, took a pass, leaving anti-tax activist Sydney Hay virtually alone in the race. State Representative Bill Konopnicki, who considered a bid before dropping out, is reportedly rethinking his decision, according to a report in Roll Call.
In his abortive bid earlier this year, filings with the FEC showed Konopnicki with just $44,000 in the bank as of the end of the year, along with $70,000 in debt, including a $50,000 loan he made to his own campaign. Hay, meanwhile, had raised $170,000 and maintained $155,000 on hand after her own $70,000 loan.
Renzi, an unabashed social conservative who is more moderate on economic issues, survived Democratic challenges by paying close attention to the district's Native American populations. His good relations with Navajo leaders and time spent securing federal dollars for the tribes have served him well, while Democratic opponents have had looser ties to Native American voters, who are more likely to side with their party. Kirkpatrick is said to be closer to Native Americans in the district, and if Republicans fail to field a challenger who can compete on reservations as Renzi has, they could lose the seat.
While Renzi's retirement was hardly unexpected, north Phoenix Republican John Shadegg's announcement last week that he would not seek a new term caught the state's political establishment completely by surprise. Shadegg's district should be safe Republican territory -- President Bush won by seventeen points there in 2004, while Shadegg's 21-point win in 2006 was his narrowest margin ever. Shadegg is thought to have a future, too: It is considered common knowledge that the incumbent would like to run for McCain's or Kyl's Senate seat when either comes open.
Shadegg made the decision to drop out despite having raised more than $1 million in 2007 and ending the year with $863,000 in the bank, and despite a promising political landscape -- Shadegg referred to internal polls showing him running thirty points ahead of his Democratic challenger. His announcement created a frenzy within the House Republican Caucus, whose members quickly circulated a letter urging him to reconsider. After gathering more than 100 signatures in a matter of hours, those members, mainly leaders of the conservative Republican Study Committee that Shadegg once headed, convinced the congressman to reconsider, and an answer on whether he will run again is expected soon.
If he decides his initial course of action was the right one, Shadegg's departure will leave Republicans in a deep financial hole: Attorney Bob Lord, the Democratic candidate, raised an impressive $610,000 in 2007 and finished the fourth quarter with more than half a million dollars in the bank.
Republicans are not bereft of candidates, though: Shadegg's chief of staff, Sean Noble, told Real Clear Politics he is actively exploring a bid while awaiting his boss's announcement, and former State Rep. Steve May and Paradise Valley Mayor Ed Winkler have already announced their own campaigns. State Senators Jim Waring and Pam Gorman, Superintendent of Public Instruction Tom Horne and State Treasurer Dean Martin are also considering running for the seat, while State House Speaker Jim Weiers is expected to make a decision by the end of the week.
While Shadegg has an organization to donate to the next candidate, Lord's strong financial position will almost guarantee him attention from Washington Democrats. The district is far wealthier and more white than the First; the median income there is about $16,000 higher per year, while Caucasians make up more than three-quarters of district residents.
Copper State Republicans have had a hard time in recent years, and 2008 looks little better. McCain's presence on the ballot, though, could offer the GOP some reprieve. The Arizona Senator could draw a large number of state Republicans to the polls, the vast majority of whom would happily support his presidential bid. Even the vocal minority, anti-immigration hard-liners who despise McCain, would head to the polls, and while they might cast a protest vote for another presidential candidate, they would be more inclined to vote GOP for Congress.
But the once solidly-red state is turning purple before the GOP's eyes, and a once tiny Democratic Party could be on the rise, not only there but in the entire Mountain West and Southwest. Two Congressional seats where Democrats have their acts together and Republicans are still scrambling could be emblematic of much larger problems for the GOP down the road.
Reid Wilson is an associate editor and writer for RealClearPolitics. He can be reached at
reid@realclearpolitics.com
