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The Long Battle to Come

NASHUA, New Hampshire - There's a running joke in the Granite State that "New Hampshire has a history of correcting Iowa's mistakes." And while it's true Iowa and New Hampshire have frequently differed on their choice of presidential candidates over the years - think 1984, 1988, and 2000 - it's also true that those choices have almost always helped clarify the contest by narrowing the field and establishing the clear contours of a front runner versus insurgent battle.

Not so this year. As Mike Huckabee and Barack Obama took the top spots in Iowa only to lose in New Hampshire to John McCain and Hillary Clinton, the field was trimmed only of second-tier fat, while at least eight candidates continue on with some kind of shot at a primary election win. Thanks to the divergent results, the only thing Iowa and New Hampshire accomplished was to further confuse both parties' nominating contests.

This year's Republican race is dominated by five candidates who each present major faults to their base, while the Democratic side is headed up by three candidates largely acceptable to the base and who are well-known and well-funded enough to divide the party and deprive each of a clear majority. Both parties lack a clear front-runner, and all eight candidates look likely to compete for at least a few states come February 5, when two dozen hold contests.

That's good news for those who believe Iowa and New Hampshire play a disproportionate role in choosing a president. This year, for the first time since the primary contests were reformed in 1972, two-thirds of American voters will actually have a say in their party's nominating contests.

Democrat Clinton and Republican Romney each predicated their campaigns on the concept of inevitability and momentum. Conventional wisdom held that had Clinton won Iowa, money and support for Obama and Edwards would dry up. Romney's initial strategy was to rack up big wins in Iowa and New Hampshire to propel him through later contests in Nevada, South Carolina, Florida and the February 5 states. But those strategies were shredded on January 3 in Iowa thanks to a huge turnout of young voters who backed Obama and evangelical Christians who came out in record numbers for Huckabee.

Five days later, however, McCain owns the Republican momentum. He looks like a front-runner in the GOP's next contest in Michigan on January 15, and the first poll after McCain's win on Tuesday in New Hampshire shows him pulling ahead in South Carolina as well. But Huckabee's strength among evangelical Christians was largely overlooked in Iowa until it was too late, and he maintains a strong chance for a South Carolina win too.

Former Senator-turned-actor Fred Thompson is barnstorming through the Palmetto State, giving him a chance to resuscitate what has been the most disappointing and lackluster campaign in recent memory, while Rudy Giuliani is camping out in Florida, in hopes that a win there January 29 will prop him up enough for big wins the following Tuesday. Romney still has hopes in Michigan, but without a victory there, he will likely be out of the race. To put it succinctly, none of the five candidates can be considered a front-runner.

On the Democratic side, too, no one deserves that label. Clinton held the mantle during all of 2007, inviting scrutiny and the burden of sky-high expectations. She lost it with Obama's Iowa win. After less than one week as the leader, Obama found himself burdened with a loss as well. Both have now cast themselves as underdogs, publicly eschewing the notion that they are ahead while privately telling supporters and reporters that they are just days away from clinching the nomination.

John Edwards still has a long-shot chance at victory, and he's pledges to stay in the race hoping to capitalize on a rival's fatal mistake. Still, predicating a victory on someone else's error is rarely a winning strategy.

Now, in early January, after a year of non-stop campaigning and three actual early nominating contests, the fight for both parties' nominations are no clearer than they were a year ago. Results out of Iowa and New Hampshire only muddied the waters further.

Addressing supporters in the same hotel at which he made a victory speech eight years ago after winning the same New Hampshire primary, McCain told the enthusiastic crowd to enjoy the win, but to be ready to fight on. "Tomorrow, we begin again," he concluded. In this increasingly confusing and fascinating race for the White House, truer words have not been spoke. Each candidate is now digging in for the long campaign.

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Related Topics: democrats | election 2008 | republicans |

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