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January 02, 2008

Romney, Strategists On "Hannity & Colmes"

Hannity & Colmes

SEAN HANNITY, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: Welcome to HANNITY AND COLMES. I'm Sean Hannity. We are coming to you live from the Raccoon River Brewery. We are in Des Moines, Iowa. We are less than 24 hours away from the Iowa caucuses, with the candidates making their final push to get those last- minute votes, and with all eyes on presidential hopefuls. Every move and every comment obviously is being scrutinized.

Mitt Romney has been the focus of much of the attention, due to his war of words with both Mike Huckabee and Senator McCain. And the former Massachusetts governor joins us now. Governor, how are you.

MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm terrific, Sean. Thank you.

HANNITY: All right. I don't know where to begin because it's getting pretty tough out there in the campaign trail. How do you respond that Mike Huckabee's campaign manager -- I think the quote was he would like to knock your teeth out.

ROMNEY: Well, I guess they are continuing their positive campaign, as they have over the last several weeks. I guess I'm just not going to worry about that one.

HANNITY: I don't blame you for that. One of the things that came up over the last couple of days -- we had Mike Huckabee on the program last night, governor -- and it has to do with he calls this press conference. He says he is not going to run a negative ad, and then he shows the press the negative ad. You thought that was a bit of a sinister ploy, didn't you?

ROMNEY: Well, frankly, you know, I don't think the people in the press corps that were there were fooled. I don't think the voters in Iowa were fooled, either. It's a bit like saying, I'm not going to call my opponent any names; but if I were to call him some names, here are the names I would call him. It doesn't work. So let's keep the campaign on the issues, instead of having personal attacks on one another.

Let's just talk about the things that we care about very deeply, talk about our differences on issues, our differences on records. Those present plenty of opportunities for people to draw distinctions between Governor Huckabee and myself.

HANNITY: I think they should be more honest like Alan Colmes and myself are. We are just straight forward. We call each other names and we don't back down. We have a little bit different style than those in politics.

Governor, you are coming in to this. This we are looking at all the different polls. You are scheduled to come in -- it's pretty clear you are either going to be number one or number two, probably around this time tomorrow night or about an hour later, within 24 hours. What would it mean in either case to be the number one or number two?

ROMNEY: Obviously, I would rather be number one than number two. But doing really well in Iowa I think is important not only for the primary process, but also for the general election. We are going to have to win Iowa in the fall of 2008 if we want to take the White House. It's one of those purple swing states. So working hard here and having support will mean a great deal to me if I'm the nominee in November of 2008.

Then we go on to New Hampshire. I want to come in number one there. If I come in number two, that's also good, although not as good as number one. Then we go on to Michigan, Wyoming. I will keep on battling. I want to make sure this is a campaign that is successful.

HANNITY: Let me ask you, bring up the two criticisms -- you are obviously in the battle here in Iowa with Mike Huckabee, Governor Huckabee. He is saying your health care plan, when you were the governor of Massachusetts, allowed for state funded abortions. Senator McCain, who you are battling in your close battle in New Hampshire, his ad came out and quoted you as saying that a president doesn't need foreign policy experience.

I thought in these final hours, or this final 24 hours leading up to the Iowa caucuses here you may want to respond first to Governor Huckabee and then Senator McCain.

ROMNEY: Well, both are wrong, of course. Let me describe why. First of all, with regards to Massachusetts, the decision that allows people to have abortions with taxpayer funds was made by the court, not by the legislature, and not by me. It's something mandated by the court of Massachusetts. It was not in our health care bill. So that's, of course, a complete distortion and, frankly, inaccurate. It's a court decree.

Secondly, Senator McCain's comment, I didn't say you don't have to have foreign policy experience. I said we don't choose a president based on his foreign policy expertise or being an expert. Of course we want to have people that understand foreign matters and that is important in our selection of a president. But that alone is not how we choose a president.

Frankly, if we just wanted somebody who had a lot of experience and was an expert in foreign policy, we could go to the State Department and pick a random employee out. Instead, you want a leader, somebody who has actually led at a critical time, who has run things. And Senator McCain has been a senator for the last 30 years. He has a lot of comments. He is an honorable man. I just disagree with him on some of the key issues that count, such as illegal immigration. I think he is wrong on that.

I think he was wrong to vote against the Bush tax cuts and he still defends that vote. He says he would not vote for the Bush tax cuts were he to do it again. So, different views.

HANNITY: Let me ask you one other question; you were on the campaign trail yesterday and you talked about kids and you talked about the culture and you talked about the impact that a president can have from the White House, governor. More specifically, you did mention Bill Clinton and the impact that it had on our culture and kids during those years. What specifically do you think was that impact?

ROMNEY: Well, I think everybody can draw their conclusions from the Clinton years. I think the whole affair and the discussion of honesty and President Clinton telling the truth and becoming disbarred by the BAR of Arkansas -- all those things were a very sad moment for the presidency and for our nation. I think anybody who is hoping to become president of the United States, Republican or Democrat, would be expected to live by the highest possible standards of ethical conduct, certainly during the time they are president.

My wife and I will do our very best. We talk to our kids. They jokingly say, hey, that's too tough of a task, dad. We will do our very best if I'm elected president to represent our country well to the world and to the kids of America.

ALAN COLMES, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: Governor, it's Alan Colmes, nice to talk to you again. Thank you for coming on HANNITY AND COLMES. Certainly it's interesting for us to watch -- certainly, as a Democrat, watching the back and forth among Republicans. One of the things that came out today, in terms of your back and forth with Mike Huckabee, is that the Huckabee supporters are saying they are getting called by your backers giving them wrong caucus locations here in Iowa. Is that something you have heard about, aware of, and would you renounce that kind of activity?

ROMNEY: Of course. That's not happening. We are working very hard to get our own voters to get to the caucuses and letting people know where the caucuses are. Actually, I understand in this last week that about 10 percent of the caucus locations were changed by the Republican party of Iowa. Nothing of that nature is going on from our campaign that I am aware of. I would be very, very surprised.

I know our campaign manager here, Gentry Collins (ph). He is terrific. We have a really solid campaign. If you look at the things I have said about Governor Huckabee over the last many months, you will know that I think he is an honorable guy and he is a guy I like. I just think he is wrong on key issues, and I think he is way too liberal on key issues. We are not going to do a campaign on politicking based on anything besides the most fair and upright standards.

COLMES: You were critical of him for calling George W. Bush arrogant, especially in his foreign policy. You just recently gave an interview to Reuters and they are quoted you as saying that we did a less than effective job in managing the conflict in Iraq following the collapse of Saddam Hussein. You said, I think we were under-prepared for what occurred, under-staffed, under-planned and, in some respects, under-managed. At the same time, I have heard you praise the great job of George W. Bush. Which is it? I'm confused where you stand on Bush's war policies and how he managed the war.

ROMNEY: Don't be so confused, Alan. You've got to watch the campaign, since I have been saying those same things since I got in the campaign, which is that I do respect the fact that George W. Bush has kept us safe these past six years. I think that President Bush would be among the first to say that following the collapse of Saddam Hussein we were under-prepared and under-staffed and under-planned and that there were lapses in management. Abu Ghraib is one that he points to.

At the same time, at this stage, we are not going to walk out of Iraq and leave the job in a setting where you can have al Qaeda play a dominant role. This is a message I have been carrying ever since I have been a candidate for president. I respect the president. I support the troop surge. But I also agree that there have been a number of mistakes made over these past several years.

COLMES: Governor, we thank you very much for being with us tonight. We will all be watching. Thank you very much for coming on HANNITY AND COLMES. We appreciate it.

ROMNEY: Thanks, Alan. And Sean, good to be with you.

COLMES: Coming up, hours away from the first ballots being cast and the Huckabee/Romney battle for Iowa takes center stage. Frank Luntz is live from the campaign trail as Iowa voters weigh in on their choice for 2008. We are live from Des Moines. Lots still to come on tonight's HANNITY AND COLMES.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COLMES: Welcome back to HANNITY AND COLMES, live from the Raccoon River Brewing Company in Des Moines, Iowa tonight. We check in with our own Frank Luntz. He is at Des Moines University and he's looking at which way Iowa Republicans are leaning in tomorrow's first presidential contest. We'll have the Democrats later. But, Frank, tell us about the group that's with you right now.

FRANK LUNTZ, WWW.LUNTZ.COM: We have the most precious, special voters that you can imagine. Not only are they Republican caucus voters, but each of these people behind me switched their support within the last few days or weeks and went all over the place. Before I show you what they did and why they switched, I want you to see an ad that we showed this evening before we came on air.

All of the 25 ads that have aired in the last three weeks, there is one ad that stood out for being really controversial. Just as you talked about with Mitt Romney, they had some very strong points of view when Romney challenged Mike Huckabee. Remember, the higher the lines go, the more favorable the reaction. What you want in an ad is to get somewhere between 70 and 80 percent. This ad doesn't do it. Let's take a look at an ad that doesn't work.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ROMNEY: I'm Mitt Romney and I approve this message.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Two former governors, two good family men, both pro-life, both support a constitutional amendment protecting traditional marriage. The difference? Mitt Romney stood up and vetoed in-state tuition for illegal aliens, opposed drivers licenses for illegals. Mike Huckabee supported in-state tuition benefits for illegal immigrants. Huckabee even supported taxpayer funded scholarships for illegal aliens.

On immigration, the choice matters.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LUNTZ: Guys, you saw that the lines flattened out, didn't even climb above 50. OK, explain it to the American people. What's wrong with that ad? Isn't that a legitimate challenge of Mike Huckabee?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I don't believe that it is, mainly because in Iowa, we are issues-based. I am not going to respond to a negative ad. I want to hear what a candidate stands for and what they are going to do for me.

LUNTZ: It's an issue. He talked about immigration.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think we all agreed here tonight we don't like the negative. We don't like it. We don't want to hear it. It's irritating.

LUNTZ: But it's of substance. He is talking about Huckabee's record.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Tell us what you are going to do; not necessarily try to provide some information that may be distorted, or -- you know what I mean? It's not factual in some cases.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's hypocrisy. Last time I checked, Arkansas didn't have any sanctuary cities; Massachusetts, while Romney was there, did.

LUNTZ: Sounds like a Romney supporter -- Huckabee supporter, sorry.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Romney is getting concerned that Huckabee was surging in the polls. And any time you see an ad like that, it indicates to me that those things are taken out of context to make sure that the voters have a question in their minds what Huckabee is all about.

LUNTZ: Let's do a quick show of hands; how many of you would have told Mitt Romney, if there is real difference between the two of them, run that ad. How many of you would have recommended he run it? Raise your hands? How many of you think it was a mistake.

We will find out tomorrow night whether you are correct. Now, you have all changed your point of view. Who in this room was supporting Rudy Giuliani at some point during this campaign? Raise your hands. Four of you. How many of you are supporting him right now? None of you. What happened?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I guess family issues became a key issue for me. Rudy's personal history just wasn't doing it for me anymore.

LUNTZ: What happened?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I would agree with that and the fact that he just hasn't had a strong presence here in Iowa.

LUNTZ: Now, Sean, Alan, I'm going to show you something here. How many of you supported at one point Fred Thompson? Raise your hands. And how many of you support him now? Of all the recruiting that we did to get these people, it was Fred Thompson who at one point or another had more support than anybody else and everyone has left him. What was the problem?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I had an opportunity, as we do here in Iowa, to meet Fred Thompson. And he appeared tired, uninterested in really being there, like my vote, my interest was not important.

LUNTZ: The problem with Fred?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There was a lot of hype when he came out. But after getting out of the starting gate, it's like he stumbled. He appears disinterested.

LUNTZ: That's the negative. Now, let's do the positive. How many of you were supporting Mike Huckabee six months ago? Only one of you. How many of you are supporting him today? A whole bunch of you? What turned you towards Mike Huckabee?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think his consistent. He is socially conservative. I like that. He is also somebody that has reached across the aisles when he was governor.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The more I got to read about him, the more it seems like he is me. If I was running for president, that's how I would operate. He is an average guy. The thing that really concerns me, I was reading some magazine or some newspaper articles, and they referred to him as folksy as though that was negative.

LUNTZ: But you left him?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I left him.

LUNTZ: For who.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Romney.

LUNTZ: Why?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Leadership. I think the country needs somebody that has demonstrated leadership, outside of he was in the business world. He understands jobs, understands budgets and those sorts of things.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Leadership? I mean, first of all, if you want to compare governors to governors, Romney does not have even half the experience that Governor Huckabee does. The other thing that Governor Huckabee brings to the table is he talks about there is no social situation that he hasn't dealt with one on one. I want someone like that.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: But as far as Huckabee is concerned, I mean, a lot of us are tired of the negative ads and Huckabee took the high road and decided he wasn't going to come back and contradict that. But, if he didn't actually vote for some of those things and allow that, why wouldn't he come out and say hey, I didn't do it.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Governor Huckabee pushed higher taxes. When he was governor, he kept many of the former Clinton people in office. And it just seems like it would continuation of the Arkansas Good Old Boy network.

LUNTZ: What you have got behind us is the media campaign at large for the voters of Iowa. One thing for sure, Sean and Alan, you guys are covering this correctly, because that's what our people are talking about, this battle between Huckabee and Romney, and it's not going to be done in Iowa. They are going to take it to New Hampshire. They're going to take it to South Carolina.

HANNITY: All right. Frank Luntz, now we are going to be back with Frank a little bit later on here. The candidates have made their last- minute push. Now it's time for Iowa Republicans to back they're man. We will take you inside each campaign and their last minute activity. We are live from the Raccoon River Brewery in Des Moines, a little cold. We're back in two minutes.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MIKE HUCKABEE (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thanks for being out here today. I appreciate it more than you can know. God bless you. See you tomorrow night. Let's have a great, great night of victory in Iowa. Thank you and god bless.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HANNITY: Welcome back to HANNITY AND COLMES. We are live from Des Moines, Iowa. Now, tomorrow's Iowa caucus has been billed as the Mitt Romney/Mike Huckabee showdown. With more than a quarter of the Republican caucus still polling is undecided, could those unclaimed votes -- well, could it pose a long shot candidate a chance for victory?

Joining us now, political analyst Kirsten Powers, former Maryland lieutenant governor, our good friend, Michael Steele. Welcome.

MICHAEL STEELE, FORMER LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR OF MARYLAND: Good to see you.

HANNITY: You are not so sure that -- well, you think that maybe we are putting too much emphasis on just Iowa now.

STEELE: In my view, I think we are. I think this is the beginning of what will be a very interesting campaign.

HANNITY: There will be a lot of angry people.

STEELE: It's not slighting the importance of Iowa. Iowa is a good send off for whoever is going to ultimately be the president. But I don't think you can definitively say that if I come in third tomorrow that my campaign is over for president. No, it's not, because Rudy Giuliani, for example, is not really competing here. His race is Florida. You can't take people out of the picture because they are not here tonight.

HANNITY: How important is it for Mitt Romney to win, considering Mike Huckabee surged late, and didn't spend as much money.

STEELE: I think it's very important for Romney to win this. Even second, you know, it won't hurt him. I think he really wants to walk out of here with a win. I think he is close to it. But you got that 25 percent that's undecided. Those voters will likely split between a Huckabee and a Romney.

HANNITY: All the polling shows Democratic race is really, really tight between all three candidates. I'll ask our good friend Terry McAuliffe, who's coming up here in a minute. What if Hillary comes in third here.

KIRSTEN POWERS, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: I don't think -- it depends on what happens. If there is an overwhelming win by Obama, which nobody is really predicting -- or John Edwards. If it ends up being just an even spread, the way we are seeing right now, then I think it's probably a wash, and it's not that big of a deal. She has a very strong campaign and she can definitely go the distance. If somebody comes out as a definitive winner, that's right going to change the dynamics. But no one is really predicting that.

HANNITY: But because we have compressed the entire primary caucus season -- you pointed out, Rudy is really not competing here.

STEELE: Right.

HANNITY: And Not even so much in New Hampshire. January 29th it begins for him. And then we have all these big states on February 5th. Are we going to look back on February 6th and 7th and decide he was either a genius or he made a mistake.

STEELE: Probably.

HANNITY: One or the other. If it works he was a genius.

POWERS: This is sort of born of necessity. It could end up working, because if nobody on the Republican side -- if nobody gets any kind of momentum, and we start seeing one person winning here, one person winning there, Rudy could end up pulling out in the end.

STEELE: I think that's a little bit true for Hillary, too. She has got a long game. It's not just Iowa. It's not just New Hampshire. She has got a lot of big states that will be coming down the pike where she is well healed and organized. She will be a player.

HANNITY: Why does Hillary keep at this level of 50 percent unfavorable? It seems like both the Barack Obama supporters and the John Edwards supporters -- there seems to be a strong anti-Hillary vote behind their support for those two candidates.

POWERS: I don't know. If you talk to pollsters, a lot of them will say, give Edwards and Obama more time and their negatives will go up. They may not go up to the level of Hillary. But when you are in the public eye as much as she is, and a very polarizing person, she is going to have high negatives. She is well known. We know what we know about her.

HANNITY: Here is the question -- and Terry McAuliffe is getting ready in the bullpen back here. Is that good for the country? If we know she is polarizing and 50 percent of the country doesn't like her, is that good for the country?

POWERS: No Sean, that's not what it is.

HANNITY: That's a great question.

(CROSS TALK)

POWERS: The reality is that the more people have gotten to know her, that trend has gone in the right direction for her. People like her more the more they know her. It happened when she ran for the Senate.

(CROSS TALK)

COLMES: The 50 percent is national. We are talking about Democrats now. This is about Democrats here in Iowa. And if she is the nominee -- and Terry will tell us she will be in a moment. She is against whoever the Republican nominee is, then people have to decide between basically two people. And whoever the Republican nominee is going to have a lot to answer for, Michael, if they're going to support Bush, not support Bush, support the war, not support the war.

STEELE: In one sense, once you get to that point, you are a little bit beyond Bush at that point. The country is going to be looking and saying, OK, we have got the Bush thing; now tell us what you are going to do. Tell us how you are going to be different. Tell us how you are going to bring about change, whatever that may be. I would be very careful of trying to keep playing the Bush card over and over again. At some point you have got to say what you stand for and what you believe in. That's what the American people --

COLMES: Isn't there going to be a moment where it's decided by wherever the nominee is -- is Bush going to campaign for them and not campaign for them. Get the support or not. It's going to help or hurt.

STEELE: We will all have fun with that. I'm sure, at some point, that will be a real --

COLMES: Is it going to help or hurt the nominee?

STEELE: The same thing is true on the Democratic side. I mean, you know, you do this dance with does Bill Clinton help or hurt Hillary.

HANNITY: Hurt.

COLMES: He helps. I think the country was in pretty good shape about 10 years ago.

STEELE: I don't know what he does for the rest of us.

COLMES: They are going crazy, Kirsten. You spent time with the Hillary campaign today, right?

POWERS: Yes. I think all the -- if you talk to anybody who is out there, there is so much energy and excitement on the Democratic side. We have three very, very strong candidates. I think Hillary's crowds were big and enthusiastic. The same is true for Edwards and Obama.

COLMES: Anybody who tells you they know what is going to happen 24 hours from now is making it up.

POWERS: There's no way to know. You can make arguments in different directions. You can say there is supposed to be this huge turnout. We're talking 150,000 or 160,000 people. That's very good for Obama. It's also good for Hillary, who is looking at 60 percent or more new caucus goers. You can say that's bad for Edwards. On the upside for Edwards, you know, Edwards has a very strong organization. He has the same precinct captains he had the last time around. So you can argue it all different ways.

COLMES: Would you agree, Michael, that the Democratic field is a stronger field, that people are really seeing a bunch of candidates they like? Hannity is nodding.

STEELE: What is that?

COLMES: I'm talking to Michael Steele.

STEELE: Look, I will give you this; among Democrats, the passion is off the charts. Among Republicans --

COLMES: More excitement? More money going to them?

STEELE: There is a little bit of a flat line on the Republican side.

COLMES: Why is that?

STEELE: I think it's because we're going through this post-Reagan era, where we are trying to decide exactly what does this -- we have a candidate who is not cut out of the mold of a Reagan in a Giuliani. You have someone who is slightly there in Huckabee. You've got Romney. You have all these variables that the parties are still trying to sort through.

COLMES: They haven't found anybody that they set their sights on and say, this is someone --

STEELE: No, I would agree. That has not happened. But that moment will come. And I think it's -- that's why I have always said, we could see this, for the Republicans, going on a little bit longer than maybe for the Democrats.

COLMES: Chris Dodd moved his family to Iowa, to where his daughter wondered whether Santa Claus would still find them in Iowa. What does a guy have to do to break through? He lives here. What do you have to do? Bill Richardson, great credentials.

POWERS: I think it's a really, really strong field, contrary to what Sean is saying. I think it's so obvious that the Democratic field is much stronger than the Republican field. Chris Dodd is a great person. I have a lot of respect for him. Joe Biden, Bill Richardson. I mean, our second tier is as good as their first tier.

COLMES: Unlike the Republicans, who are very shy and retiring.

STEELE: Strong, silent types.

COLMES: Guys, we'll continue following this throughout the night and the next couple of days. Coming up, the Democratic race in Iowa is too close to call, with polls showing Obama, Clinton and Edwards in a virtual tie. We're going to check in with the Clinton campaign and find out how Hillary plans on breaking through the log jam. Stay with us. That's coming up on HANNITY AND COLMES.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: America is back and we are making history together. Thank you all so very, very much. God bless you.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(NEWSBREAK)

COLMES: Welcome back to "Hannity & Colmes." We're coming to you live tonight from Raccoon River Brewing Company in Des Moines, Iowa. And polls show the Democratic battle for Iowa is in a statistical dead heat, a surging John Edwards now just percentage points behind senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

With us now Hillary Clinton campaign advisor Terry McAuliffe.

Terry, good to have you back on.

TERRY MCAULIFFE, HILLARY CLINTON CAMPAIGN ADVISOR: Great to be back with you.

COLMES: ... once, as I recall.

MCAULIFFE: Yes. I couldn't fill your shoes.

COLMES: Let's talk about the Democrats and the issue of change. How do you convince Democrats who say Bush-Clinton, Bush-Clinton. And she's saying she's the candidate of change. And a lot of them -- how do you convince Democrats, if that's the case?

MCAULIFFE: Well, first of all, the message is working. I mean, if you look at the 27 contests, first 27 contests, Hillary is up in 20 of the 27 contests.

It starts tomorrow on January 3. I predict it will be over on February 5. It's going to be one month start to finish. Her message is working, and you look at all the states on February 5, we have huge leads.

COLMES: Does she have to be the candidate of change in order to compete with Barack Obama and convince people that she's the candidate, change agent, even though we've seen her on the scene for a long time?

MCAULIFFE: When we say change, what people want to do is move us away from the Bush policies and the havoc that George Bush has wreaked on this country. That's what they talk about. They want to move in a new direction. They want health care. They want us out of Iraq. They want change.

Hillary has 35 years of experience fighting for change. They know that everybody talks about it. She can deliver. She can go in that job tomorrow and be commander and chief of the United States of America.

COLMES: What does she have to do in Iowa tomorrow night? Where does she have to appear in the litany of candidates and how they turn out?

MCAULIFFE: You know, I'm the ultimate optimist. I feel very good about where we are. It is very tight.

COLMES: Does she have to win? Does she have to come in second?

MCAULIFFE: We don't have to win any specific race. We -- we're up in all these polls. We've raised over $100 million. We have the money to take us through February 5. I'd remind everybody that Bill Clinton didn't even win a race until Georgia.

COLMES: The whole game has changed. Everything is happening earlier now.

MCAULIFFE: And we're great on the February 5 states. But I think we're in great shape here. We are in great shape in New Hampshire. We're up 25 points in Nevada. We've got South Carolina. We're just starting.

COLMES: You talk about changing Bush's policy. She has an issue in terms -- this keeps coming up, the war vote, that she voted for that with Bush and that Obama can say he didn't. Edwards can say, "I apologize." She's not said that. Isn't that an issue, especially with Iowa liberal Democrats? They tend to be more liberal in Iowa than the rest of the country in terms of Democrats.

MCAULIFFE: Alan, you don't see it. I think people, they are now in the decision-making mode. Where do we go going forward? She has her three-point plan on Iraq. She will get the troops out fast. She will get them out safe.

People forget about their vote in the past. Where are we going forward? We're fighting two wars. We have a battered economy. People want to change it. They want health care. They want our troops out. They want to fix the economy so it works for everybody. Her message is working. I mean, we're doing great.

COLMES: What does she have to do now in the next 24 hours to close the deal with Iowa?

MCAULIFFE: She's got her last event tonight here at 9:30. She and the president will be here at the last event we're doing.

We have the best field operation, honestly, I've ever seen. I have been doing this 29 years. I think we have the greatest ground operation we have ever had in the history of Iowa politics. Got a long way to go; just got to get people to caucus. I'll shovel your driveway tomorrow. I'll baby-sit.

COLMES: Baby-sit. Use Terry McAuliffe to baby-sit.

MCAULIFFE: Got a lot of kids, get a lot of people caucus. I'll baby- sit.

HANNITY: Very good to see you. By the way, I learned my lesson the last time you were on. I went like this, and you nearly clobbered me.

MCAULIFFE: If you're into touching men, I'm fine with it. That's your deal. It just ain't my deal. If you like it, that's OK. It just ain't my deal.

HANNITY: I don't want to get clobbered. But anyway, good to see you.

MCAULIFFE: Good to be back.

HANNITY: ABC News, "Hillary campaign preparing for a third-place finish." Des Moines Register: Obama 32, Hillary 25, Edwards 24. Why isn't your candidate doing better?

MCAULIFFE: That's second. But...

HANNITY: Second, but she's down by seven points.

MCAULIFFE: Well, there are two polls out that same day, Sean, as you know that had us up.

Now, the Des Moines register poll is interesting. I don't believe the model that they used. They say that only 55 percent of the people who will caucus will be Democrats. They're saying that 40 percent will be independents. Five percent, Republicans are going to show up, switch their party registration? And that's not good news for you, Sean, and all of your...

HANNITY: I think Hillary is going to be nominee. I'm on record of saying that. Here is Barack Obama's comment. We are less likely to win an election that starts off with half the country not wanting to vote for that candidate. Referring to the fact that 50 percent of the country consistently finds her a divisive political figure and not likeable. Why is she not likeable?

MCAULIFFE: First of all, Hillary Clinton has been out there for 15 years. A lot of folks have thrown a lot of things at her. Her negatives have consistently come down. Let me just tell you...

HANNITY: This is consistent: 50 percent don't like her.

MCAULIFFE: It's not today. But today Hillary Clinton beats every Republican. She beats Rudy Giuliani.

HANNITY: Those polls change, as well.

MCAULIFFE: But we win. We win Florida, Kentucky, West Virginia, Virginia, Arkansas, Missouri, Iowa, Ohio, Arizona, Nevada. We're doing great. Now, we've got a long way to go, as you know and I know. A lot of things going to happen.

But her message is working out there. People like it. And women are 54 percent of the vote.

HANNITY: Do you really believe what Hillary's pollster, Mark Penn says, that 25 percent of Republican women will vote for her because of the emotional connection she has as a woman?

MCAULIFFE: I think there's a dynamic, Sean. We don't know what it is. Fifty-eight percent of the vote in 2004, women. What is it with a woman at the top of the ticket? Is it an increase of 4 or 5 percentage points?

HANNITY: And it's one of the most divisive political figures in American history, and that being Hillary Clinton. You can't deny that.

And look, I'll give Bill Clinton his due. He had a likeability. He was a people person. She's not warm. She's not likeable. She doesn't connect with people.

MCAULIFFE: I've known the woman for 25 -- 27 years.

HANNITY: I know you've known her but...

MCAULIFFE: I adore her. She's funny. She's hysterical.

HANNITY: She's cracking me up. Every time...

COLMES: Not going to get Hannity's vote. It's not going to happen.

HANNITY: Every time she goes on the morning show and laughs at every question thrown at her. She cracks me up.

MCAULIFFE: So you say it was a divisive figure about winning the election.

One thing you should understand, Sean...

HANNITY: Yes.

MCAULIFFE: ... you cannot find a Republican senator in the United States Senate that will say an unkind word about her. She works with Democrats. She works with Republicans. She will bring people together. You know that. You can't get them to come on this show.

HANNITY: The New York Times talks about her experience and a report out there that investigated her experience, said during Bill Clinton's two terms in the White House she didn't hold a security clearance. She didn't attend national security meetings. She was not given a copy of the president's daily intelligence briefing. She did not assert herself on Somalia, Haiti, Rwanda.

Will you call on -- will the American people get to see the Clinton papers before this election in November of '08, assuming she's the candidate? Will you -- will Hillary demand the release of the records she had as first lady?

MCAULIFFE: She has already asked, and so has President Clinton. And I've spoken to both of them.

HANNITY: When are they coming out?

MCAULIFFE: First of all, it's not up to us. It's up to the organization. She said put them out. All non-family related, put them out. Who cares? You know what? She's going to win this thing. You and I will be together.

HANNITY: All right, my friend. Thanks for being with us.

MCAULIFFE: Maybe she'll put you in the cabinet.

COLMES: I don't think so.

HANNITY: And when we come back, Frank Luntz will be back with his focus group. This time we're going to hear from Iowa Democratic voters. That's all coming up, more of "Hannity & Colmes" live from Des Moines, straight ahead.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: When I get to the White House, you're the one who I'm going to be thinking about. You are who I'm going to be fighting for. That's why I want to be your president.

Thank you very much, everybody. Thank you.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HANNITY: And welcome back to "Hannity & Colmes." We're coming to you live tonight from the Raccoon River Brewery. We're in Des Moines, Iowa.

Now, we've already heard from Republican voters, and now we want to hear from what Iowa's Democrats and what they're thinking. And for that we go back to our own Frank Luntz. He's in Des Moines. He's at the university.

Frank, all right. So what do the libs say? What do the Democrats say?

FRANK LUNTZ, POLLSTER: Once again we showed them a whole series of ads, and once again there was one ad that struck everyone -- even people who weren't supporting this candidate thought that this was the best ad they saw. Watch how high the dials climb. A fantastic message for Democratic caucus voters. Let's listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOHN EDWARDS (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm John Edwards, and I approve this message.

Here's the choice, keep going the way we are, pretend the system works while corporate greed rules, insurance lobbyists kill health care, energy giants make billions from insane gas prices and the middle class is squeezed to the breaking point.

Or tell the truth. The status quo and good intentions aren't enough. We're not going to look our kids in the eye and say, "Corporate greed stole your future." We're going to say, "America rose up, save the middle class, gave you a better life, and it started right here in Iowa."

(END VIDEO CIP)

LUNTZ: Every one of the people sitting behind me supported a different candidate in the past few days or weeks.

How many of you one month ago were supporting John Edwards? Raise your hands. A month ago. How many of you supporting John Edwards today? Look at these hands going up.

Was that ad -- was it his message? What turned you to John Edwards?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Because I wanted a champion for the middle class, which Iowans, a lot of us are middle class.

LUNTZ: Who did you support before?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Barack Obama.

LUNTZ: He didn't do it for you?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Just didn't do it.

LUNTZ: Who else moved towards Edwards in the last month? Tell me why.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think he's got the credibility and the consistency that we really need to defeat a Republican candidate.

LUNTZ: How many of you see electability, by a show of hands, is important to you? How many of you would say it's really important to you? How many of you say it's the No. 1 factor in who you decide to vote, raise your hands. So still a bunch of you.

Now, you're interesting, because who did you start with?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I started with Clinton.

LUNTZ: And who did you move to?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Obama.

LUNTZ: And why did you switch?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I sensed a -- undeserved, in my opinion, hatred, dislike for Hillary. And I am afraid of not beating the Republicans.

LUNTZ: And that's why you moved to Edwards?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes.

LUNTZ: Sean, electability is clearly important in this campaign. What would you like me to ask them?

HANNITY: You know what I'd like to ask, more than anything? It's a question that I've raised with Terry McAuliffe just a few moments ago here. How many -- and these are Democrats, just to remind our audience. How many Democrats find Hillary a polarizing, divisive figure, and do they find her unlikable?

LUNTZ: Let's do that. How many of you supported Hillary Clinton one month ago? Raise your hands. One, two, three, four, five. How many of you support Hillary today? OK. So some of you have moved towards her.

Who would say that she's polarizing? Raise your hands. More than half of you. Why do you think she's polarizing?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: She's so abrasive. I mean, she is -- has the Clinton-Monica name stuck to her, and I think that's hard to shake for some people.

LUNTZ: Ian?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I don't like her riding on her husband.

LUNTZ: Are there any women who find her polarizing? Why?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I find her very polarizing. I don't think it's deserved, like Mary said. But it just is a fact. And nothing will coalesce the Republicans against Democrats like Hillary.

LUNTZ: Who's offended by that question?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think she is polarized more by the Republicans, and the country is buying into it more than that. I don't think she's as polarizing because what she is or what she can do. Mostly attack ads, constant.

LUNTZ: Alan -- Alan, what would you like me to ask them for you?

COLMES: All right, Frank. I'm curious to know, with 24 hours left and the fact that everything seems so fluid, how many of these people could still change their vote within the next day before they actually caucus?

LUNTZ: Great question. How many of you could still change your vote between now and tomorrow night? Raise your hands. Your vote is still up for grabs? We've got three people. What's it going to take to convince you?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think viability. Right now I'm a Richardson supporter, but viability is a major issue. And I'll probably go with Clinton otherwise.

LUNTZ: What's it going to take to switch you?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It would take a major, major breakthrough from one of the other candidates.

LUNTZ: But nothing in particular.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: No.

LUNTZ: Sean, you said you've got one last question?

HANNITY: I've got one last question, Frank. Every -- every Democratic presidential candidate, Barack Obama, John Edwards, and Hillary Clinton, they've all promised to raise taxes on the American people.

They won't continue the Bush tax cuts. They all want to retreat in Iraq, and they all want a nationalized health care. Is -- is that the direction that all of your group wants to go in there, because it seems that we're pushing up against a really competitive issue as it relates to where the Republicans stand.

LUNTZ: All the Democratic candidates, Sean Hannity asks you this. All the Democratic candidates want to raise taxes. They all want to retreat from Iraq. The issues like, this universal health care. Do you think that this is an electorally viable strategy that beats the Republicans? Yes or no?

You do? Is there anyone who doesn't here? Is there anyone in this room who will even consider voting for the Republican candidate?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: No.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: No.

LUNTZ: Not one of you?

COLMES: Sorry, Sean.

All right, frank. We thank you very much. Hannity is crestfallen here.

But coming up, we just heard -- all right, we just heard what the voters had to say. But our political pundits are back with their outlook for the Democratic race in Iowa. That's coming up next on "Hannity & Colmes."

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

EDWARDS: I'm going to give you back the real Democratic Party, the White House. And we're going to give you and your family back America.

Thank you all for being here. Be at the caucus on Thursday night. We're going to do great things together. Thank you.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COLMES: Welcome back to "Hannity & Colmes," coming to you live tonight from the Raccoon River Brewery in Des Moines.

Polls showing Hillary, Obama and Edwards pretty much deadlocked. Back with a break-down of the Democratic race is FOX News political analyst Kirsten Powers and former Maryland lieutenant governor and GOPAC chairman Michael Steele.

Michael, if you...

MICHAEL STEELE, CHAIRMAN OF GOPAC: Yes.

COLMES: ... were a Democrat, who would you vote for?

STEELE: I'll be honest, I like Hillary.

COLMES: Really?

STEELE: Yes. I do.

COLMES: Hannity just left the set.

STEELE: I know. I know.

COLMES: Why is that?

STEELE: Because I think at the end of the day, just taking all the partisan stuff aside, just looking at who's got viability, who's got what I think we are going to need over the next few years, she's competitive. She's going to make it a competitive race for the presidency.

I think Obama two years, two terms as the state senate doesn't cut it.

Edwards, again, just the trial lawyer thing, I don't buy that.

But you know, at the end of the day, I think she kind of brings a little bit to the table that's going to make us honest and getting back into the graces(ph).

COLMES: The concern (ph) that came up in the focus group. You probably didn't hear it because you were out of range. But the voters trying to decide do you vote for who you like or who you really think can beat the Republicans? Because Democrats want to win, just as the Republicans want to win. They want somebody who's electable.

And one of the women there said, in the Frank Luntz group, I like Hillary, personally, but I want -- I want to make sure we can win. She's divisive. And some Democrats may feel that way, as well.

KIRSTEN POWERS, FOX NEWS ANALYST: Yes. Well, we saw this happen the last time around with John Kerry and Howard Dean, this whole thing: are you going to vote your heart or are you going to vote your head? And what a lot of people are saying this time, like, maybe this is going to be the time where people say, "You know what? Last time I went with my head. This time I'm going to go with my heart."

A lot of people love Obama and they love John Edwards.

COLMES: Yes.

POWERS: Maybe they're going to go that direction at a time.

COLMES: Who would be the toughest Republican for Democrats to beat, do you think?

POWERS: I actually think John McCain. But I don't know that -- the fact that I think that may...

COLMES: I agree with you. Who are we? What do we know?

POWERS: But it's, you know, the fact that I like him and I find him appealing, and I think he's somebody who could attract, obviously independents and some Democrats, as well. Now, he has the war -- the war is so pro-war, and most Democrats aren't going to vote pro-war.

COLMES: Right. The whole scene changes, Michael, in 24 hours. We have a winner coming out of Iowa. There's a little bit of momentum there. People talk about Giuliani, who I know you like. And he's not in the picture right now because we're talking about this particular race. But whoever gets that momentum, does that hurt those candidates who are not here tonight?

STEELE: In any other presidential year I'd say absolutely. But right now, no. I think this race is so fluid, there's so many options out there. You've got people sitting on the sidelines, waiting to get in. You've got people who are charging hard.

I mean, the dynamics are very different in this presidential race, unlike any other. And I think that, to call it right now to say, "I win Iowa, I win the presidency," you're just flat wrong.

COLMES: Hillary Clinton doesn't have to win and Rudy Giuliani doesn't have to win?

STEELE: I don't think so. I don't think so.

HANNITY: Let me jump in here for a second, because one of the amazing things about this is, if you're a Democrat, you have to sell because all the Democratic candidates, they -- you're selling the idea that our taxes are too low and the Bush tax cuts are going to go away.

You're selling the idea that we've got to lose in Iraq and that we're going to be on defense on the war on terror. You're selling the idea that Hillary care is going to save the healthcare system.

COLMES: People want health care.

POWERS: You're not the target audience. You're not the target audience. And Iowa's Democrat primary voter. Listen to me. Everything you just said is your spin on what they propose.

HANNITY: No, it's not. They all want the Bush tax cuts to go.

POWERS: Yes, they want the Bush tax cuts to go away. They want tax cuts for the middle class. They want -- they have different priorities than you do. The fact of the matter is that most of the primary voters here, they do want to get out of Iraq.

HANNITY: Hang on a second. I'm asking a different question. I'm projecting into the general election Democrats, they don't want to renew the tax cuts.

POWERS: Sean.

HANNITY: Hang on a second.

POWERS: OK.

HANNITY: So you want to raise taxes, nationalize health care. You want to lose in Iraq, and I think at the end of the day it's going to be a hard position to sell.

POWERS: But you say nationalized health care. Democrats want to make sure that every American has health care. That is correct. That is correct, and the American voters are going to vote for that.

HANNITY: And it's failed in Europe, and it's failed in France and Great Britain and Canada.

POWERS: It has not failed. It has not failed.

HANNITY: Yes, it has.

POWERS: That's not the same thing. That's not what they're proposing. So the point is, you're asking a question about voters. You're asking what they want. I think the American people want health care.

HANNITY: Want higher taxes.

POWERS: I think they want lower taxes for the middle class.

HANNITY: I think the average American wakes up, hits themselves in the head and says, "I'm not paying enough. I need to give more to Uncle Sam."

STEELE: Look, and you couple that with what's going on at the various state levels with governors, like in my state, which just raised gasoline tax, sales tax, income tax, and now you're going to talk about a national tax on health. You're going to talk -- look, I pay enough already. Thank you very much.

HANNITY: Here is what I'm thinking. I look at the three Democratic candidates, and I think they're to the left of McGovern. And I think Alan Colmes couldn't be happier about that.

COLMES: You think I'm to the left of them.

STEELE: You have your own -- your own category.

HANNITY: It is a drive towards collectivism, socialism and, frankly, weakness on national security, that I don't think is going to be viable in November. That's what this contest is.

STEELE: But Sean, you make a good point. And I think that's one of the dangers that the Dems have got to navigate. You see Hillary doing a little bit of this and has over the past year. Navigating that general election strategy and that primary election strategy.

Kirsten is right. The primary Democratic voter has a very different view than the typical voter in a general election. Same is true on the Republican side. And so for both candidates on the right and the left, coming towards some consensus on what America needs going forward is going to be the challenge for where we see the nomination.

HANNITY: I think if we're going to talk about strategy because I think the issues are classic Reagan-Carter, Reagan-Mondale in terms of what the debate is going to be about.

But I think, in terms of strategy, assuming Hillary Clinton is president. I think there's a danger making her the big issue and not focusing on an inspiring vision for the American people and talking about what the future has to bring.

STEELE: I agree. And that's why Obama is talking about the vision thing. He's talking about the vision thing. And Hillary is a little bit more pragmatic, saying, "OK, look, I've got to put bacon on your plate, and you've got to go to work and do all these other things."

POWERS: While you're spending all your time sort of skewing what you think the Democrats are doing and I don't think it's a fair representation...

HANNITY: Skewing?

POWERS: But you have -- you talk about Reagan, you know, Reaganism. What Republican is representing Reagan? None of them are.

HANNITY: All of them will reduce taxes. All of them want victory in Iraq.

POWERS: You don't hear that from when you look at the polls and you talk to voters, they do not feel like any of these people have anything to do with Ronald Reagan. I mean, the Republicans are not offering this wonderful...

HANNITY: You're missing my point, though. My point is -- is that when you compare and contrast health care plans, taxes, victory in the war on terror...

POWERS: Yes, the Republicans don't have one. They don't have a health care plan.

HANNITY: ... you couldn't have a greater distinction.

POWERS: But Sean, Americans want health care. The Republicans have not shown any leadership on this issue. George Bush didn't show any leadership on it?

STEELE: Americans want health care, but they don't want government- run health care.

POWERS: Well, you know what? The reality is that people are starting to come around to saying that, like, we need to cover everybody.

HANNITY: Listen, it was great to see you guys. We have to run. Great to see you guys. We're at the Raccoon Brewery. I'll buy you a beer.

STEELE: You got it. You're on.

COLMES: And all the conservatives...

HANNITY: Alan and I, we're going to have our closing thoughts on all the action and anticipation right here from Iowa. Back in two short minutes, straight ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HANNITY: All right. Now before we go tonight we want to thank all the nice people right here at the Raccoon River Brewery Company that hosted us tonight. And we appreciate all their hospitality.

I'll buy you a beer, by the way, afterwards.

COLMES: You're going to buy? A conservative handout. Finally, after all these years.

HANNITY: See, we believe in the free market.

COLMES: You know what? You are so wrong about what the American people want. I believe we'll find out in November. People -- first of all, this guy is -- people want to pay the bills. They want to pay the bills.

HANNITY: We're debating two different issues here. I understand why all the Democrat candidates are appealing to the hard left of their party. And that is...

COLMES: It's not the hard left.

HANNITY: ... nationalized health care. Well, look at -- look at Edwards' comments about Iraq. Look at Hillary's flip-flopping positions.

COLMES: She's running a populist campaign. She's not running a hard left campaign.

HANNITY: The bottom line, if the Republican candidate, whoever emerges as the Republican candidate, if they focus on the comparisons between either Hillary, Barack Obama or John Edwards, I think that will be their strength, because I think your party has been -- gone far to the left.

COLMES: I know you think that. You think I'm way, way out there. But look, people want -- if you look at issue by issue, people are pulling with the Democrats.

HANNITY: They want higher taxes?

COLMES: People want middle-class tax cuts. They want to be able to pay the bills.

HANNITY: They want to leave Iraq without winning?

COLMES: No one's defined "win."

HANNITY: I have.

COLMES: This president has not defined what "win" is.

When are you running?

HANNITY: When they are able to sustain themselves, which they're...

COLMES: The American people want out of this war. And I think the candidate who will get us out of the war...

HANNITY: Get out of the war -- before they lose.

COLMES: I don't know what win means. The American people can't...

HANNITY: We'll ask the people. Hi, how are y'all doing?

(CHEERING)

COLMES: And how many Democrats are here?

HANNITY: How many Republicans?

(CHEERING)

COLMES: Thank you very much. Just because you're loud doesn't mean you're right.

Anyway, we thank you very much for being here. We had a great time.

HANNITY: I'm going to buy Colmes a beer right now. So that's all the time we have this evening.

COLMES: That's a half more of a beer than you can actually drink.

We thank you very much for watching this special edition of "Hannity & Colmes."

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