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Next Two Weeks Could Determine RNC's Future

Three Republican presidential nominating contests have already been decided, but the picture they leave is still unclear. Contests in Iowa, New Hampshire and Wyoming have provided three different winners, and by the time the next three contests, in Michigan, South Carolina and Florida, the GOP could potentially have five different victors heading into the February 5 contests.

The fact that Iowa and New Hampshire utterly failed to narrow the GOP field has left Republican Party activists in the three states that follow elated. None are more so than Saul Anuzis, Katon Dawson and Jim Greer, the party chairmen in those three states. Adding another wrinkle to their desires to hold what turns out to be the most important primary of the year, all three chairmen are rumored to be considering bids for the top spot at the Republican National Committee, and pulling off an effective contest that becomes a tipping point toward the eventual GOP nominee could give one a crucial leg up.

All three chairs maintain that theirs is the most important primary this season, and all three have legitimate points. Add in that none of the three states can be called at this point for one candidate and a decisive winner of two or more primaries, should one emerge, could lock up the entire contest. Each state has its own strengths to bring to the table, and candidates are being forced to tailor their messages uniquely to all three, sometimes delivering separate stump speeches on the same day.

Michigan, where voters are headed to the polls today, demands a heavy emphasis on economic issues, and the three candidates running hard there - Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney and John McCain - are targeting their appeals to fiscal conservatives. "Michigan's in a unique situation. We're in a single-state recession," Anuzis says, and that affects the campaign. "Everybody's talking about jobs."

Economic issues have long dominated surveys in Michigan. With the credit crisis erupting in late 2007, stocks slumping and government statistics showing a weakening job market, the rest of the country is beginning to catch on. Recent surveys have shown the economy and jobs supplanting the war in Iraq as the most pressing concerns voters consider as they select a candidate. A candidate who does well in Michigan, Anuzis says, will need an economic plan that passes the smell test with voters. Michigan "is the home of the Reagan Democrat. I think you can argue that the middle class was built around the automobile."

Four days later, the three currently camped out in Michigan will join Fred Thompson in competing strongly for South Carolina's national convention delegates. The Palmetto State has a track record on picking a nominee, Dawson argues. "We've got a twenty-eight year history (as an early state), unlike" Michigan and Florida, he says, pointing out that every Republican who has won in South Carolina since Ronald Reagan in 1980 has gone on to win the nomination. "South Carolina's place in history is what makes it so important." State voters are well-prepared for taking their choices so seriously. With the advent of the internet and the proliferation of blogs and cable news, their thought processes have only expanded. "Usually, it's 'Do I know you and do I like you,'" Dawson says. "The discussions that I'm having with people are much deeper than that."

South Carolina voters, he said, are most concerned with electability at this point in the race. Unlike other states, where appealing to independent voters who might vote in a primary is crucial, candidates in South Carolina need to show their ability to build from the base. To do so is a telling indicator of whether that candidate could build a winning coalition in November. "You can't win the presidency if you're a Republican if you don't have a solid South," Dawson said. "I see electability probably as the number one issue right now."

Whoever lives to survive Michigan and South Carolina, and it likely will not include all four contenders who battled there initially, will spend the next ten days trying to catch up with Rudy Giuliani in Florida. The former New York Mayor does not have the same overwhelming lead in the Sunshine State he once enjoyed - in fact, the latest RCP Florida Average shows McCain leading by 1.5 points - but Giuliani is staking his entire campaign there, busing and flying around the state virtually non-stop for the next several weeks. To win in Florida, says Greer, is to demonstrate electability. "We make up the nation," he said. "When you want to know what the pulse of the nation is, all you have to do is look at Florida."

While Michigan is a large state, Florida is bigger, meaning that to be competitive there is to demonstrate an ability to run a purple-state campaign come November. In fact, the ability to compete the following Tuesday, on February 5, when nearly two dozen states hold nominating contests, may depend on winning a big state like Florida. "The conversation on February 5 would be, 'What did Florida do last week,'" Greer pointed out. That concept is the cornerstone of Giuliani's campaign, and he may be right. Whether he can actually win there is a separate matter, but Guiliani, Greer and other campaigns are banking on the hope that Florida's effect on the next week will make it the most important primary of the year.

Each state's importance in the coming weeks, relative to the rest of the primary campaign, could light the path to victory not only for the Republican presidential nomination but for the chairmanship of the Republican National Committee as a whole. Anuzis, Dawson and Greer are among the state party chairs most well-known around the country, and they might hope the spotlight in January can translate into a boost when RNC members select their next leader.

All three demure and refuse to say they are running, but it seems their interest lies just below the surface. Sources close to all three warn against taking their names out of contention, though real campaigns do not appear to have evolved beyond initial discussions. "There's been discussion about (running for RNC chair) from what I understand, and I'm flattered," Greer said. Dawson agreed with the sentiment: "It would be quite a compliment to just even be considered," he said.

The chairmen are more prominent throughout the RNC than most state chairmen. Their press operations aggressively target national reporters, all three have put their parties on better financial footing than they once enjoyed, and each has a national platform. Dawson has long been an outspoken Republican voice. Greer and Anuzis each represent important swing states which, should they score a victory for Republicans in November, could come in handy. And Anuzis, who did not want to comment on his own future, already serves on the RNC's 28-member Executive Committee.

While an eventual Republican nominee might lose their race, a chairman with a new approach could help the party begin to dig out of the hole it finds itself in presently. If any of the three become chair of the RNC, they might end up with a longer impact on the GOP than the eventual nominee.

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