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House Republicans Face Late Exodus

A wave of late-breaking retirement announcements have left beleaguered House Republicans swamped in recent days as five members have told House leaders they will not seek re-election this Fall. The announcements bring to 27 the number of open seats Republicans will have to defend throughout the year, and some believe the end is not yet in sight.

In the past week alone, Reps. Jim Walsh, Ron Lewis, Dave Weldon and Tom Davis have all announced they will not seek another term next year. Missouri Republican Kenny Hulshof, who represents a district just north of St. Louis, said he will run for governor, a seat that came open when incumbent Republican Matt Blunt surprised political observers by withdrawing after just one term.

Some candidates dropped their re-election bids after surveying what is likely to be a difficult, if not uphill, battle for them next year. Walsh barely survived a challenge from a former congressional staffer, Democrat Dan Maffei, who is running again. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will surely make certain he is better-funded this year than he was last year. Instead of lose, Walsh decided to give up his upstate New York seat, leaving Republicans scrambling to find a replacement.

Davis, whose district lies on the outskirts of the Washington metro area, has seen the political climate shift underneath his feet. His once-safe Republican district is no longer a sanctuary, as Democrats made heavy inroads in last year's legislative elections. Davis' wife and one-time heir apparent, a former state senator, was one of the victims last year; she lost her re-election effort as Democrats swept to victory in the state's upper chamber. After seeing conservatives virtually shut him out of a Senate seat, Davis had little choice: He is too moderate for a statewide bid, yet too conservative, simply by virtue of the "R" after his name, for a run for re-election. His exit gives Democrats what may be their best chance to pick up a seat in the country.

House Republicans might be able to take solace from the fact that most of the seats left open will present few challenges for their candidates. Weldon's district, on Florida's northeast coast, is an outpost for social conservatives where Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee found success in this year's presidential primary, and Lewis' west-central Kentucky district was President Bush's best in a heavily Republican state.

But in a political climate in which it is still painful to admit being a member of the GOP, virtually no seat is safe: Lewis won by just ten points last year, after outspending a conservative Democrat more than two-to-one, and Weldon outperformed him by just two points against a challenger he outspent by an 8-to-one margin. Two years after a presidential election, Weldon's vote share dropped by 85,000, while the Democrat's dropped by just 13,000.

Even in Hulshof's northeastern Missouri district, where he has not faced a serious challenge since his initial win in 1996, prominent Democrats are considering the race, where a competitive Republican primary, which is held in August, could provide a pickup opportunity. "Any retirement for the NRCC in a marginal district is a problem, simply because they don't have the money to fund the races," said Tim Sahd, editor of House Race Hotline and a Congressional campaign expert.

The National Republican Congressional Committee, ailing financially, has at least some good news to point to: Democrats targeted two special elections earlier this year, both of which the Republican candidates handled easily. Thanks to those Democratic losses, NRCC spokesman Ken Spain said, "the DCCC has been forced to face the reality that 2006 has come and gone." This month, too, seven serious Republican challengers have entered races the party thinks they might be able to re-take or hold.

Spain says the retirements aren't going to be the straw that breaks the committee's back, either. "Nearly all of the open seat races this cycle will occur on favorable Republican turf in a presidential election year," he said.

But surveying the national climate, Republicans are not hopeful of a recovery next year, and some think the retirements will continue. "A lot of people are looking at the political landscape" and deciding to drop out, said GOP consultant Craig Shirley. "Everybody on the Republican side is having a tough time raising money."

The decision to retire after experiencing the minority, said longtime campaign strategist Dick Leggitt, is not a difficult one. "It's very difficult to go to second fiddle when you've been playing first chair," he said. It does not surprise Leggitt, either, that retirements are coming from such experienced members. "They're people that have been in for a while. They see their chances to make an impact, they see their political power and they see their circumstances dramatically changed, and they don't see any hope of the Republicans retaking the majority in the immediate future."

Shirley has a different look at those leaving office: "With all the corruption of Congress, some might think it resembles a jail break more than a massive retirement," he joked.

Whether plagued by an aching back or ethics scandals, whether faced with a tough fight or an easy decision to stay home with the grandkids, the sheer number of retirements in seats Democrats might pick up is stunning. Democrats are targeting two promising seats in New Jersey, three marginal contests in Illinois, three in Ohio and two in New Mexico. As if it could get any worse, a recent poll showed Democrat Gary Trauner, a second-time candidate, leading a Republican who had been elected to statewide office by one point in normally ruby-red Wyoming. If even that state isn't safe, it's hard to imagine Republicans having anything but a bad night in November.

The bleeding, some believe, has yet to stop. While Florida Rep. Bill Young has said he plans on running for re-election, he raised an anemic $5,000 between October and December, fueling speculation that he may step down. Poor third quarter fundraising put a question mark over New York Rep. Vito Fossella's head, though a faster pace in the fourth quarter seemed aimed at squashing those rumors. And Washington has been buzzing lately about another New Yorker, Rep. Randy Kuhl, whose spokeswoman pointedly refused to confirm or deny retirement rumors - or that an announcement of any kind was imminent - when asked by RCP.

There could always be more, though it's not usual, Sahd said. "In 1996, when Democrats had 28 retirements, 27 had retired by this time. But the pace of Republican retirements doesn't appear to be slowing," he said. Shirley, a veteran of years of House races, put a morbidly humorous spin on the exodus: "They need to hang a sign," he said. "'Will the last Republican to retire please turn out the lights at the RNC?'"

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