 | ||
 | Elian Gonzalez saga could haunt Obama | |
| Gitmo trial looms in election homestretch | |
| Back at Senate, Clinton treated like royal | |
| GOP favoritism in new IG report | |
| How Hoyer got the deal done | |
| LA Times/Bloomberg Poll: Obama +12 | |
| IN Polls: Prez Race Even, Gov Race Close | |
| McCain's Psychological Benefits | |
| VP Watch: Michigan Numbers | |
| The Charm Offensive Continues |
| A Transportation Stimulus | |
| McCain's Speech in Santa Barbara | |
| A Serious Energy Policy for Our Future | |
| The Imitators | |
| 'Victims' of Cut-Rate Loans |
| The Case for McCain | |
| McCain's Magic-Battery Idea is Low-Watt Economics | |
| A Chance for McCain | |
| Mighty Mac Adrift in Michigan | |
| Can't Do Spirit |
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January 24, 2008
Economic Woes Help Clinton, Romney
By Reid WilsonLAS VEGAS, Nevada - Clark County, the largest in the Silver State, has seen one of the nation's highest increases in home foreclosures, and voters here are worried sick about the economy. But it's not simply Nevadans; voters around the country are telling pollsters, in sometimes overwhelming numbers, that they believe the economy is the most important issue facing the United States today.
Ask any campaign strategist about their confidence in a race's outcome and they will remind you that a day is a lifetime in politics. In the race for the White House, that cliché is true: A year ago, even a few months ago, the campaign focused virtually completely on the war in Iraq. The shift toward the economy has fundamentally altered the presidential contest, and may determine which candidates emerge as the eventual nominees.
A poll conducted for The Hotline in January of last year showed 44% of registered voters said the war in Iraq was the most important issue facing the United States, while just 7% said the economy or unemployment. This January, the same survey showed 25% chose the economy and jobs while just 15% said the war concerned them most. Voters in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan and Nevada have all told exit pollsters that the economy is a more important issue to them than the war - half of Nevada Democrats said so, while just 22% said the war, and 55% of Michigan Republicans chose the economy, to just 17% who picked Iraq.
Those astounding numbers come as the stock markets have tumbled in the first weeks of the year, thanks in large part to a bursting housing bubble, a mortgage crisis and a severely weakened U.S. Dollar. American attitudes about the economy have fundamentally changed: A poll conducted for CNN by Opinion Research Corporation showed 40% of Americans felt economic conditions today are very or somewhat good, down from 63% a year ago.
Advisers for many of the presidential campaigns are scrambling to adapt to voters' new concerns. In the last week and a half, five candidates have unveiled economic stimulus plans, including leading Democrats Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama and Republicans Mitt Romney, John McCain and Mike Huckabee. John Edwards, running third in the Democratic race, rolled out his plan in late December.
"People realize that they're not just the only family that's having a hard time, that this really is the whole country," said Ann Lewis, a senior adviser to Clinton. "That, more and more, has become an agenda item for action." David Bonior, the former Michigan Congressman who is now managing Edwards' campaign, said his home state has been "approaching a depression" for some time, and that conditions there have trickled down to voters around the country.
Voters give certain candidates more credit on different issues. McCain, a veteran and former prisoner of war, has outperformed among voters who care most about Iraq, due in large part to his early advocacy for the surge strategy that, in the minds of many voters, is succeeding. Romney voters, meanwhile, were much more likely to choose the economy as their most important issue; their candidate's background is as a businessman and CEO.
For Democrats, "the war issue helps Obama more than any of the other candidates," Bonior said. That tracks with exit polls, which show Clinton and Edwards winning higher shares of economy-focused voters. Obama has made an issue of the fact that he opposed the war in Iraq from the beginning, while Clinton is associated with the prosperous 1990's, when her husband was president, and Edwards plays up his populist fight for the average working man and has close ties to major unions.
There is a clear distinction between voter preferences on the war in Iraq and the economy. If the war in Iraq comes back to the fore, it still appears that Obama and McCain are in the best position to ride to victory. If the economy means more to voters, Clinton and Romney will find themselves in greener pastures. McCain, who backed the surge, often says he would rather lose a campaign than a war. Thanks, at least in some part, to the success of the plan he advocated, he may be on a path to do just that.
