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Don't Expect Clarity from Iowa Results

For the political junkie, tomorrow's Iowa caucus results will be a gift that's sat under the tree for nearly two years. But while we have drooled with wonder at what is inside, once it is unwrapped, it might not meet growing expectations. We may not get the curtain-dropping finish that bestows inevitability upon one Republican and one Democrat.

In the Democrat race, the Clinton and Obama camps know they could win one and lose one in the five-day sprint that bolts the cornfields of Iowa for New Hampshire after tomorrow night's tallies are in.

The Edwards camp feels it is close enough to deliver a surprise in one, if not both. It is possible for all three camps to make it through next week dinged but still viable.

And in the wild theme park that is Republican Land, any of five candidates has a realistic shot at emerging from the roller coaster tunnel with a rocket boost that could propel them to success in South Carolina, Florida and a mountain of other states waiting to vote on Feb. 5.

But while one Democratic frontrunner might be taking the campaign trail exit ramp soon, at least one key Republican and as many as two or three will be done by the time New Hampshire headlines hit doorsteps a week from today.

So who will it be? One could craft a parlor game called "Which Republican's Schedule Will Be Wide Open By Super Bowl Sunday?"

Perhaps it's John McCain, who has spent most of the last year struggling in the polls. But the hardy agri-voters of Iowa seem to like him these last few days, and the quirky New Hampshirites handed him victory in 2000.

One could say it would be Fred Thompson, whose campaign seems to have impressed few since its belated launch. But the lukewarm reviews have come from a punditocracy often thwarted by real people. Mr. Thompson may in fact be the GOP candidate who offers the shortest list of troubling obstacles for voters to hurdle.

Maybe Mitt Romney will be left in the January cold. After peaking with his religion speech in Texas, the days since have been filled with little fictions about whom his dad marched with and a snotty tone to his ads that have undercut his good-guy appeal. His summer of clear sailing ran aground with the surge by former Gov. Mike Huckabee, and, if Mr. Romney loses in Iowa - where he has spent zillions - and in New Hampshire - where he is a regional fixture - it might be best to keep him away from sharp objects.

Is the Huckabee phenomenon real? A darling among Republicans driven by social issues, he has drawn eyebrow wrinkles and outright catcalls from conservatives who have examined his inclinations on taxes and pronouncements on foreign policy. Strong in Iowa, but fourth or fifth in New Hampshire since September, Mr. Huckabee isn't writing a convention speech just yet.

And so what of the national frontrunner for virtually all of 2007? Rudy Giuliani hasn't led a consensus of polls in Iowa since May. He now trails Mr. Huckabee and Mr. Romney there by double digits. In New Hampshire, he is far behind Mr. Romney and has been passed by Mr. McCain.

But he is competitive in South Carolina, and his seven-month lead in Florida has withstood the Huckabee bounce.

Who will win Iowa tomorrow and begin this glorious yearlong pageant with a marketable victory that may be the first step toward a hand on the Bible on the U.S. Capitol's west steps just over a year from now? Anyone who professes to know is lying.

This wide-open field has provided as rich a drama as anyone could have wished. We all have our favorite horses in this race, but more than any single winner, my most fervent wish is for a result that is not so cut and dried.

Mixed results in Iowa and New Hampshire, spiced with strong finishes by midlevel candidates or an odd stumble by a front-runner or two, and who knows? These lofty decisions might actually make it beyond the two states that have so peculiarly dominated the process for decades.

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