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A Campaign's Ups and Downs

In this brief moment of apparent front-runners, let's evaluate their strengths before everything changes.

Such is the whiplash pace of this glorious campaign season, where this week's win can lead to next week's disappointment.

Will Hillary Clinton, buoyed by a strong Nevada Democratic caucus result last weekend, feel the sting of defeat in South Carolina this weekend? And will John McCain, winner of Republican primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina, finish less impressively next Tuesday in Florida?

I'm thinking both answers are yes. But there's a big difference.

Mrs. Clinton can withstand a hiccup in South Carolina. Even multiple prefixes do not do justice to the upcoming drama that is Feb. 5 - I believe the latest preferred label is "Super-Mega-Giga-Hyper Tuesday." The wide variety of states voting on that busy day provides a vast landscape for recovery.

Mr. McCain's momentary perch is more fragile. If he is beaten in Florida, it may be the beginning of the end for him.

The reason is that the calendar is Mrs. Clinton's friend and Mr. McCain's enemy. Feb. 5 features many closed primaries, meaning far less impact in both parties for wayward independents. While staunch Democrats favor Mrs. Clinton over Barack Obama, staunch Republicans are a minefield for Mr. McCain.

Mrs. Clinton also has wide appeal in unionized America, which points to success ahead in delegate-rich California, New Jersey and her chosen home state of New York.

Mr. McCain's prospects for Florida and beyond are not as promising. He could not have won in South Carolina without broadening his appeal to conservatives, and he deserves credit for that achievement there. But with Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee and Rudy Giuliani clobbering him with Florida TV ads, can that last?

And beyond Florida, additional closed primaries Feb. 5 mean real Republican voter bases are going to evaluate the prospect of a nominee who:

•Voted against the Bush tax cuts.

•Piloted the doomed Senate amnesty bill for illegal immigrants.

•Put his name on the law that stifles free speech in political campaigns.

•Demonizes pharmaceutical companies who have saved countless lives.

•Swallows the logical leap that man is causing global warming.

•And speaks ill of the Americans who have used interrogation techniques that have thwarted terrorist goals.

Let's just say I'll believe Mr. McCain is the Republican nominee when he secures that 1,191st delegate.

It's not impossible. If he does win Florida, it will mean that voters have found things to admire in him that outweigh the factors listed above. His general support for the war has been characteristically heroic, and the Iraq surge that may ultimately change world history is largely to his credit. If he successfully navigates the treacherous waters that lie ahead, we will be talking about how a Clinton-McCain matchup will play out.

But if supporters of a fading Mr. Huckabee shift to Mr. Romney in Florida next week, or if Mr. Giuliani's Hail Mary pays off - or both - the GOP field will be slightly dwindled but still tantalizingly unpredictable.

I suppose this is my moment to officially assert that I do not see Mr. Obama overtaking Mrs. Clinton, even though I believe he has run the superior campaign. She can rely on unions, women and Hispanics. She also can rely on her wheels-off husband, who remains an apparent net plus, even while picking fights with reporters and dozing off at campaign events.

Within the next six days, South Carolinians and Floridians will be the last voters to enjoy single-state attention before delegates start flying off shelves in massive clumps. Their tastes will have a lot to say about how "Super" Feb. 5 really is for the big players.

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