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December 14, 2007

Twenty Days To Iowa; The Unraveling Clinton Campaign

Hannity & Colmes

SEAN HANNITY, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: And welcome to HANNITY & COLMES. We'll get right to our top story tonight. Twenty days, that's all that's left before the Iowa caucuses. On both sides, the race seems well up in the air. But another day brought another bad story for the Clinton camp. A Clinton precinct captain in Iowa has defected to the Obama camp and even posted a YouTube video explaining why.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I was really surprised to see personal attacks from one Democrat to the other Democrat. And when my husband and I sat and watched this on TV, we said what's this campaign coming to? There's just a disconnect, and I kept seeing this disconnect, and I decided no. No. I'd always liked Barack Obama.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HANNITY: All right, joining us now with more in the fastest two segments in all of politics, we have Kate Obershain and she is with the Claire Luce Boothe Policy Institute. The Washington editor of "Fortune" magazine, FOX News contributor Nina Easton, and for Politico.com, Mike Allen. Mike, you've been doing some terrific reporting. How important is this? This just is one more thing Clinton's got to deal with. What do you think?

MIKE ALLEN, POLITICO.COM: Well Sean, it really is. And I saw today Senator Clinton's campaign described as fragile, which is certainly never a word you would have thought of for either her or her campaign. But Sean, you were so right to pick up on that video. It's so powerful. I'm a little suspicious of its origins. I'm not sure Senator Clinton is the first person in politics ever to be negative. But it's extremely effective. A, the video of that very believable woman pulling the Hillary Clinton sign out of her snow bank, putting a Barack Obama sign in it. My goodness, you can't match that. And something very important it shows, it shows the entrepreneurialism of the Obama campaign. They were smart enough to pick up on this and make good use of this and put that video out. And so I think it shows who's in the driver's seat on this race.

HANNITY: Nina, when you look at all the reports of all the infighting within the Clinton campaign, this quandary, this moral dilemma. If they attack Barack Obama, which instinctively is what the Clintons do, there's fear of a backlash. What do you think of this?

NINA EASTON, FORTUNE MAGAZINE: Well, it's always dangerous to attack in Iowa. Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean found that out in 2004 when at this point in 2004 at this point, they were the leading candidates in Iowa and we should remember that. The numbers change fast in Iowa.

But I think what's happening with Hillary is there's this story line is coming out that she's part of an attack machine or she's leading an attack machine. And it fits into a long-held -- a lot of long-held biases against her.

She meanwhile was trying to build the narrative about Barack Obama that he's not only inexperienced, but not vetted, so we have this guy that's a Clinton supporter in New Hampshire, a very prominent Clinton supporter, raising the issue about drug use with Obama which, by the way, is in his autobiography, it's nothing new. But he claimed that the Republicans would use it against him and therefore he'd be vulnerable.

HANNITY: All right Kate, let's go to the "Concord Monitor" poll here because she's down in Iowa. And now this is the second poll that confirms Hillary's fire wall state is gone. Look at this here, this is two polls, two days in a row, she's losing.

KATE OBERSHAIN, CLAIRE BOOTHE LUCE POLICY INSTITUTE: The fire wall is gone. But I think the most fascinating part about this poll is women. It shows that Obama is ahead with women voters 34-32 percent. Clinton is expecting and counting on women going out to the polls in droves to support her candidacy, and this shows that they're not going to walk in lock step to the polls, particularly when her credibility is at stake.

People really don't believe that Hillary Clinton is not behind these political attacks, and particularly when she says repeatedly "I had no idea he was going to say what he did," referring to her national co-chairman.

HANNITY: All right Mike, let me go back to you. If it couldn't get worse, in the "Denver Post" today you have John Millin, he is the Wyoming Democratic Party chairman. He writes a letter to the "Post" where he says the following. He says, "Every candidate in Wyoming will be painted with that same liberal, big-government brush. We will also be the target of the locker room jokes that rightfully belong to Bill Clinton."

Mike, tell me if I'm wrong here. It seems to me that starting in Philadelphia and not being able to answer the question about driver's licenses for illegals, then playing the gender card, and then the boys are against me, and then the conspiracy theories, then Bill Clinton jumps in and makes her look weak. And then of course the kindergarten investigation. It seems that they just can't get their footing here, and Democrats are thinking this and now saying it out loud.

ALLEN: You're right about that, Sean, and her biggest strength was that she was going to win. And as soon as you take that away, you're starting to see how soft the support is. Was this the house that was built upon the sand? It's starting to look that way. Now, she lives with the most powerful -- most smartest mind in politics, and so if anybody can right this, she will. But Sean, that Denver story you're talking about, there's a lot to that. There's polling in Montana, Arizona, Colorado, Wyoming, all important states for Republicans. All states that have been trending Democrat, that show that she would be a drag on the ticket. And that's part of why Republicans want her to run.

ALAN COLMES, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: I thought it was New Jersey, by the way, Mike. But let's move on to something else here because Rudy Giuliani .

ALLEN:. New Jersey isn't exactly a swing state.

COLMES: Well actually, some suggested that could be in play with the Rudy Guiliani candidacy. Let me move forward here.

ALLEN: If Rudy wins, right, right, right. But then Oregon, Washington, all kinds of states are in play.

COLMES: Let me put up on the screen a YouTube video of Rudy Guiliani from his radio show just before September 11th which - this is what he was saying then about what's become a key issue in the campaign, illegal immigration. Let's take a look.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

RUDY GIULIANI (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I think New York City should not deal with undocumented immigrants in a harsh way. I think they make a big contribution to the life of the city, and we're much better off being sensible and practical about it, and the reality is that restaurants are going to have a certain number of people who are undocumented, people are coming here to make a living. They're trying to help themselves and their family.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COLMES: This is the kind of flip-flopping you like to accuse Democrats of doing, but Rudy Giuliani has election year conversions on some of these issues. That's got to hurt him in this campaign. Kate?

OBERSHAIN: It's not an election year conversion.

COLMES: Sure it is.

OBERSHAIN: That video was pre-9/11. Rudy Guiliani has been consistent in saying that that catastrophic event caused him to change his position on illegal immigration because he then saw it as a national security issue.

I'm surprised that you keep bringing up this issue because it brings into question Hillary Clinton's position on illegal immigration. She changed her position within a matter of two minutes at the debate a month ago when she couldn't make up her mind on driver's licenses.

COLMES: You have a very different standard for Hillary Clinton versus Rudy Guiliani.

OBERSAIN: Alan, she changes her position based on political expediency. He did it based on an earth-shattering occurrence.

COLMES: All right, let's move forward here. A new FOX News/Opinion poll, a New Hampshire poll, as well, a FOX News poll on New Hampshire actually was just released today.

Here's what it says in terms of the strength of each candidate and how committed each of the people in this poll are to the vote. 71 percent committed to Hillary Clinton, 59 percent say they're certain about Edwards, 58 Obama, and so, Nina, the idea here is that Hillary has got the greatest strength among those who have made the commitment and are unlikely to change versus the other candidate.

EASTON: And I actually think, Alan, it's way to early to write off Hillary. She's absolutely in trouble in Iowa. She's somewhat in trouble in New Hampshire. You know, Mike's point about her issues in the west. But she's still - and by the way, she's also in trouble in South Carolina. But in a lot of these big states, Florida, California, she still has a very large lead.

What Obama has been able to do, though, is cut into her support among women and the whole Oprah factor had a big affect on that. He's also cut into her support among blacks. She was leading among blacks, but it looks like in South Carolina, the two of them are neck in neck and the black vote has a lot to do with that.

COLMES: We'll show you some national polls coming up in just a few minutes. Lots more to come. Don't go any place. There's more polls and bites from the trail. Still to come tonight, breaking down the missteps, some say, of the Hillary campaign. Can the New York senator rebound and regain her lead in some key states?

Plus, a man loses it aboard an Air Canada flight and the frightening meltdown caught on tape.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOHN EDWARDS (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I met a man named James Low (ph) was born with a cleft pallet. He had no voice for 50 years because with no health care, he couldn't get a simple operation. Fifty years with no voice. In America, it is wrong, it is immoral. When are we going to stop letting drug companies, insurance companies and their lobbyists run this country?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COLMES: That was presidential candidate John Edwards, his latest ad about health care coverage. For reaction we now continue with our panel.

And let me go to you, Mike Allen. Some people are critical of that, talking about a cleft pallet, using somebody. But I presume that was consented to by James Low (ph), who decided he would participate.

ALLEN: Sure, and Alan, that's very effective. Senator Edwards has been saying that on the stump for months. I've seen him out talking about that. And it's a very powerful part of his message.

Alan, this week you saw a turn in what Senator Edwards is doing. After three years, the two Americas have finally been retired, now he's talking about America rising. He'd gotten a lot of criticism for always being the angry mad guy. So he's talking about America rising.

But Alan, it doesn't really matter what Senator Edwards is saying. He has a NASCAR strategy. He's drafting. He's waiting for Senators Clinton and Obama to crash, and then he'll be there.

COLMES: Let's move on because there is some more stuff about Hillary Clinton. Once again people are being critical of her, people who can't stand her. There was an interview on Iowa public television and you've got a bunch of bloggers suggesting that she's referring to Obama when she says this. We're going to put it up on the screen. She says "I've been tested, I've been vetted." She says there are no surprises. I'm sorry, we actually have the sound of it. Let's roll that.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D-NY), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I've been tested, I've been vetted, I have been in the political arena in our country very intensely for 16 years. There are no surprises. There are not going to be anybody saying well, why didn't we think of that? Or, my goodness, what does that mean? Whoever we nominate will be subjected to the full force of the Republican attack machine. They're not going to give up the White House without a fight, and I know that, they know I know that, and I have no illusions about what this race will entail.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COLMES: By the way, Nina, she has come out and said I was not referring to Barack Obama, but those who want to play divide and conquer have said she's got to have been referring to Barack Obama because they want to divide and conquer the Democratic Party.

EASTON: How tricky was that on her part to kind of refer to the Republican attack machine while she's doing an underhanded attack herself. Look, I think it's totally fair for her to portray herself as the one that's far more experienced than Barack Obama, a three-year U.S. senator.

I think that's fair game. But what happens is that when she starts raising potentially there's some personal bomb in his closet, which we haven't heard about yet from her, then it started backfiring on her. And that's what we're seeing this week.

HANNITY: Hey Kate, let me stay on that here for just a second. She's tested, she's vetted, 16 years she's saying. Whoever gets in this position will be subjected to the full force of the Republican attack machine.

It's her campaign investigating the kindergarten years of Barack Obama. It's her campaign that's out there suggesting oh, did Barack sell drugs? And now the "New York Times" picks up on it. And there's one other point on this. She hasn't been vetted. Release the documents from being first lady of Arkansas and the United States, right?

OBERSHAIN: Yeah, no kidding. I mean this is the amazing part about Hillary Clinton. She had -- Alan, you really do believe that she has no idea what she's doing, right?

COLMES: I believe there's one person that's no longer with the campaign anymore who did that.

OBERSHAIN: She is very consciously attacking Barack Obama and Edwards yesterday when she talked about people demanding change or people hoping for change. Look, Hillary Clinton has not gotten the memo that it's backfiring. She needs to stop what she's doing, stop attacking members of her own party, and get back on her message. Fine with me if she keeps on doing what she's doing, but it's her campaign is going to implode if she continues to do this.

HANNITY: I want to go to Al Gore if I can here for just a second. He's in Indonesia, and I want to throw to this shot here. This is the same guy that speaks before moveon.org screaming at the top of his lungs that our president betrayed his country. He accused America of committing terrible abuses among Arabs. Here's what he said in Indonesia at this climate conference.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

AL GORE, FORMER VICE PRESIDENT: My own country, the United States, is principally responsible for obstructing progress here in Bali. We all know that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HANNITY: Nina, I resent this. I resent that a former vice president is constantly attacking his country this way for the world to hear. Why doesn't he pay a bigger price?

EASTON: You know Sean, this is why he's not running for president. Al Gore gets now to say - he gets to first of all have sainthood rather than candidate hood, and he gets to say what he wants. And you're going to hear him saying it again and again and over and over.

HANNITY: Kate, I hear you, go ahead.

ALLEN: Well Sean, I agree.

OBERSHAIN: Go ahead, Mike.

HANNITY: Go ahead, Mike.

ALLEN: I agree with Nina about the sainthood part. But the reason that this is surprising and upsetting is that this is the vice president cheapening himself. Why should he stoop to take shots like this? When he got the Nobel Prize, I looked at it that he won. Clearly, he was onto something. He had transcended politics. Now he's stooping back to it again.

OBERSHAIN: And he said we're worse than China on climate issues.

ALLEN: But our toys are safer.

HANNITY: By the way, Al Gore flies around the world in his private jet, and we've shown the video right here on this program.

OBERSHAIN: And he won't debate with anybody.

ALLEN: He actually walked to the Nobel Prize.

HANNITY: And he got off the private jet into his limousine, his gas guzzling limousine. Guys, good to see you, appreciate it.

And coming up, now we've told you about Hillary's dropping poll numbers and staff shake ups. Is her campaign completely unraveling?

And you heard his apology on our show. Tonight the bounty hunter, Duane "Dog" Chapman is back to tell us how he's made good on his promise, straight ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HANNITY: As you just saw, Hillary Clinton is having all kinds of problems. Her lead in New Hampshire appears dwindling if not gone, and some polls even have her down in South Carolina. Late today a new poll out of Iowa for the "Quad City Times" gives Barack Obama a nine-point lead over Senator Clinton. It's the biggest of any poll thus far, and possibly to big for Clinton to overcome, which raises the inevitable question for the one-time inevitable nominee. Can she lose the first three contests, maybe four, and still be in this race?

Joining us now, Democratic strategist Kiki McLean and Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway. She's down now in all three states. Nobody predicted this, Kellyanne.

KELLYANNE CONWAY, REPUBLICAN POLLSTER: Well, we're sort of disappointed because I think Republicans would enjoy Hillary Clinton as the nominee, it's very hard to get her to 51 percent. And the worse that she's doing, the more likely it is that she'll draw a third party candidate in there. Because I'll tell you why. If you look at the cross tabs, the second choice for Edwards and Obama voters is not Hillary Clinton.

By definition if you're going with Obama and you're going with John Edwards, you've already decided you're against her. So you're going to need to go somewhere, maybe you'll go to the Republican, let's hope, but you'll go to that middle ground, you'll go to an independent candidate or two. And I have said on your show before, it's the candidate's stupid to paraphrase James Carville. She has herself to blame because she doesn't recover well, she doesn't have that resilience. And Bill, I'm not even sure he wants her to be president. He doesn't want eight years of scrutiny again.

HANNITY: Kiki, I know you are a big Clinton supporter, I know you're going to put the best spin possible on this. But by every objective measure on this, everybody that I know that is close to the Clintons, and all my sources, there's nothing but turmoil, anxiety, and fear of Barack Obama. How do they overcome this?

KIKI MCLEAN, DEMOCRATIC STRAGIST: I don't know about fear of Barack Obama, but welcome to an Iowa caucus, this is what happens in the last few weeks.

HANNITY: And New Hampshire and South Carolina.

MCLEAN: It becomes a nail-biter, and I think Kellyanne would be the first person to tell you until you see a series of polls with those kinds of numbers.

But what's interesting to me is that the Iowa numbers unlike the national numbers have always been tight. But here's the good news for Democrats. The reality is she continues in national polls head to head with Republican potential nominees to beat them. Number two, she actually is the person who is out there campaigning.

HANNITY: Kiki, if she loses those three or four contests, you've been around politics long enough to know. Kiki, it's something that's called momentum. And she has lost it.

MCLEAN: Sean, anybody who loses those three or four contests, you're out. I want to make one other point to you. And this is really important to understand, and that is the good news is we have Democrats who are happy with the candidates.

We have a lot of good leaders running. I happen to believe Hillary Clinton is the best, more Americans believe that she's the best. You've got a Republican field that has -

COLMES: By the way, that's true. In a poll out this week, Kellyanne, there's one Republican candidate who gets more than half or the majority of Republicans happy with the fact that they're in the race. But let me just point out, you're salivating -- you and my friend Sean here are salivating with this idea and this spin that her campaign is somehow imploding -

HANNITY: It is.

CONWAY: I want the Alan Colmes drool cup.

COLMES: Thank you very much, I'm going to market that. Thank you for the idea.

CONWAY: I hope this is actually a slow bleed because even I would not have anticipated so many missteps by the helicopter style boss Hillary Clinton.

COLMES: You pick at every minor thing.

CONWAY: Let me tell you something Alan, it's not me. What I think doesn't matter. You know, a funny thing happened on the way to Hillary's victory lap. The Democrats, seven of them, ran against her, and they've been pulling her apart, for legitimate reasons based on her record.

COLMES: First you complain it's a coronation, then you complain there's a tightening of the race, which is normal.

Let me show you some national polls here. The American Research Group poll - this is national - my point is that super Tuesday can really be the thing that makes the decision. 41 for Hillary, 22 Barack, 13 Edwards. You have the ABC/"Washington Post" poll. Hillary 53, Barack 23, Edwards 10.

CONWAY: But what's the point? Are you supporting Hillary?

COLMES: Here's my point. She doesn't have to win Iowa or New Hampshire. She could do very well on super Tuesday and get the nomination. You want to diminish her and denounce her because that's what you like to do. That's ignoring the rest of the country.

CONWAY: Alan, the people that are denouncing her are Barack Obama and John Edwards.

COLMES: Well, that's her job.

CONWAY: No wait, you asked me the question, let me finish. When you go 0 for 4 in the playoffs, you don't go to the World Series, you go home.

COLMES: That's not the way it necessarily works. Kiki, you want to weigh in, go ahead?

MCLEAN: Anybody who goes 0 for 4 in this is over, Huckabee, Guiliani, any of them. What nobody is really being honest about is the fact that the Iowa caucus is the Iowa caucus. I think she's going to win there. I think she's going to perform very strongly there.

HANNITY: You're dreaming.

MCLEAN: And the reality is, we're not going to know until a week from Thursday, right, two weeks from yesterday - or three weeks from yesterday we'll actually know what happened. There's so many factors, but what's interesting is the way she's aggressively pursuing every vote and talking about her style of leadership and the training that she has.

CONWAY: She's no Bill Clinton, sorry.

COLMES: All right, it's called a primary, it always tightens up. Oh, you like him? We thank you both for being with us.

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