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December 26, 2007

Strategists On Iowa With Eight Days To Go

Hannity & Colmes

ALAN COLMES: Welcome to HANNITY AND COLMES. I'm Alan Colmes. Rich Lowry here sitting in for Sean tonight. Nice to see you once again, Rich. We get right to our top story, there are only eight days left until the Iowa caucuses, just eight days. That means we start tonight with the fastest segment in all of politics.

Joining us tonight, Democratic pollster Doug Schoen, Republican strategist Leslie Sanchez and former writer for the "Arkansas Democrat Gazette," Quinn Hillyer. Welcome all of you.

"Manchester Union Leader," well-known conservative newspaper, it hammers Mitt Romney today. And let's show you what they said. They said, "there's a reason Mitt Romney has not received a single newspaper endorsement in New Hampshire. It's the same reason his poll numbers are dropping. He has not been able to convince the people of the state he's the conservative he says he is."

Leslie, you're the conservative strategist here. Is he a conservative? Do you agree or disagree with the "Manchester Union Leader."

LESLIE SANCHEZ, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: I think he's a very strong economic conservative. He has strong social conservative credentials. But he is known as somebody who cut taxes, did not raise them. He reduced the deficit and he really has a strong economic vision for America. He hasn't closed the deal. But Romney is a very strong contender.

COLMES: A true conservative, Doug, stands for more than just the things that Leslie mentioned. And there's a whole mission that a conservative is on, and Mitt Romney seems to have election year conversions when it comes to certain issues.

DOUG SCHOEN, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Yes, I think that's what the "Des Moines Register" has cited. That's what the "Union Leader" cited. That's what the "Boston Globe" cited. He's sinking in Iowa, sinking in New Hampshire. John McCain may be surging in Iowa. We're not sure about that, certainly surging in New Hampshire. And Mike Huckabee is sinking in Iowa from a 14-point lead down to about a two or three point lead.

COLMES: Does Romney have to win New Hampshire to stay viable? Quinn?

QUINN HILLYER, FMR EDITORIAL WRITER: He does not have to win in either Iowa or New Hampshire, but he has to finish a strong second in -- I would say in both states, and I do mean a strong second.

COLMES: Let's look at who's doing real well in Iowa, all of a sudden, better than she has been previously, Hillary Rodham Clinton leading by 15 points in Iowa with 34 percent, Edwards at 20, Obama at 19. Doug Schoen?

SCHOEN: I think since the "Des Moines Register" endorsed Hillary Clinton, her campaign has had a clear lift. Whether she's 14 or 15 points ahead is unclear, but she's certainly got a bit of a bulge, I think three or four points on the Real Clear Politics average. And most importantly, Obama has topped out.

COLMES: Quinn Hillyer, this is good news for Hillary. And if she gets that big Mo going out of Iowa, that really can wrap up the campaign early.

HILLYER: Well, she would like to wrap up the campaign early, and actually, if she does wrap up the campaign early, then that will just give the Republicans a more sure thing to shoot at.

COLMES: John Edwards trying to distinguish himself from the other Democratic candidates. Let's look at one of his latest ads here.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOHN EDWARDS (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: What will our next president do with the enormous power that comes with the office? I'll restore America's moral authority in the world, confront people who exploit their power for personal advantage, stand up for people whose voices are ignored, just like I've done all my life.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COLMES: Hey Leslie, he's looking better and better in Iowa. There's even talk that he could actually win this thing. He's doing what he should do, distinguishing himself from the other Democrats in the race, correct?

SANCHEZ: I would agree with that, but the biggest issue is he's an ambulance chaser who made his fortune on the backs of medical malpractice suits and hurt a lot of doctors in the process who are now out of business, and a lot of Iowa voters remember that. So he can distinguish himself any way he likes, but the reality is he has a record that haunts him as a trial attorney.

RICH LOWRY, FOX NEWS GUEST ANCHOR: Hey, guys, it's Rich Lowry. Let's look at a poll from Iowa that just came out today. It shows it a dead heat out there. I should mention, as we do, that my magazine, "National Review," just endorsed John McCain. I guess because we're not based in New Hampshire, we're allowed -- sorry, Mitt Romney. Wow, I just had a Youtube moment. The McCain campaign is going to be all over that.

COLMES: That was a Freudian slip.

LOWRY: This poll has Huckabee at 23, Romney at 21, McCain, if you believe it, at 17, and Giuliani at 14. Quinn, you've been watching Iowa closely. What do you think of this?

HILLYER: Well, I think that poll is about as absurd as the same group's poll that shows Hillary up by 15 points. This poll has Fred Thompson at three points, and the previous poll that just came out from another group, about three days ago, had Thompson surging up to 16. These numbers are all over the map, and I don't know that they can be believed.

LOWRY: Doug, admit it, Democrats would love Mike Huckabee to get the nomination? Wouldn't they?

SCHOEN: Absolutely, I think Mike Huckabee presents a ready target. I think the real fear of Democrats is that John McCain may be surging. He has centralist appeal. I think the poll does suggest though that Huckabee has probably had his momentum top out. Romney has also topped out. Whether McCain is surging could well be the emerging story of the last week of the Iowa caucuses.

LOWRY: Let's check out our next item, which is Hillary Clinton. I know all politicians over-promise, but check this out from Hillary Clinton the other day.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLINTON: During my inauguration, as I have been throughout this campaign, I say I'm serious about energy costs; I'm serious about this crisis. I predict to you the oil-producing countries will drop the price of oil. If they drop the price from nearly 100 dollars a barrel to 70 or 60 dollars a barrel, we should not be grateful.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LOWRY: Leslie, does this make any sense to you? Is she saying when she's elected, OPEC will disband and global demand will go down so the price will drop? This is absurd, isn't it?

SANCHEZ: You know, I think for her next trick she will turn water into wine. Clearly this is somebody who's going to say or do anything to get elected. She completely ignores the fact that the Bush administration has put forward a big energy security and protection plan that's going into place right now. It doesn't make sense, and people won't buy it.

LOWRY: Let's look really quickly at a Democrat who we haven't talked about tonight, Dennis Kucinich. "The Nation" just wrote this about Dennis Kucinich in our latest issue, "in his stands on the issues, Dennis Kucinich comes closest to embodying the ideals of this magazine. He's been a forceful critic of the Bush administration, opposing the Patriot Act and spearheading the motion to impeach Vice President Dick Cheney." And it goes on to say this will be a very principled vote for Democrats.

So, Doug, there it is, liberals have their marching order, Dennis Kucinich 2008.

SCHOEN: It's going to help him on the Upper West Side of Manhattan. "The Nation" has no real influence in Iowa, in the Democratic primary. It's good that they say that he's principled. It has no relevance to anything. The real question, Rich, is Hillary developing the momentum Alan was speaking of before? If, in fact, she is, the nominating process could well end on January 3rd in the Iowa caucuses.

LOWRY: Hold it right there. Coming up next, we have more of John McCain, who allegedly has a surge going on all over the place. Does he have the momentum it will take to push him into the winner circle? We'll look at that coming up next.

And then a vicious tiger attack in the San Francisco Zoo has the whole nation talking. An escaped tiger kills one and mauls two others. Now officials want to know how the animal got out its sanctuary. The latest on the on-going investigation.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: CBS News reports Obama's plan, according to independent experts, leaves as many as 15 million uninsured. The "New York Times" columnist Paul Krugman writes, Obama's plan would lead to higher premiums by rewarding the irresponsible who don't get covered.

The column goes on to say that there's a, quote, uncomfortable sense among some health reformers that Mr. Obama just isn't that serious about achieving universal care.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LOWRY: That was the latest attack ad on Barack Obama, levied by another Hillary Clinton supporting union. The American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees takes the Illinois senator to task for his health care proposal. We continue with Doug Schoen, Leslie Sanchez, and Quinn Hillyer.

Now, Doug, I know there's a certain segment of liberals that considers Paul Krugman a demigod. Does this attack cut against Barack Obama?

SCHOEN: Yes, it does. Among liberal Democrats and moderate Democrats, too, advocacy of universal coverage is a central issue in the health care debate. Hillary supports it, Barack doesn't. That's a very effective ad because it makes the case clearly. And it's a third party doing it, so Hillary is not branded with being a negative campaigner.

LOWRY: Let's look at another poll, this one in New Hampshire. It's the "Boston Globe" over the weekend, shows a real tight race up there, Romney at 28 -- the "National Review" endorsed candidate -- I have to state that correctly in this segment -- McCain 25 and Giuliani 14.

Leslie, is this a McCain surge going on out there? Do you feel excitement among rank and file Republicans for the Arizona senator?

SANCHEZ: There definitely is. Let's not forget that a lot of people thought the campaign was dead on arrival. It's definitely seen it. It's almost like a Nascar race. You've got a lot of people focusing on the top two candidates, and you can have this sleeper candidate the comes around the side, being John McCain. People see that as a very real possibility.

LOWRY: Quinn, I know people were talking about Fred Thompson possibly coming up the middle in Iowa, but it looks like John McCain might be coming up the middle everywhere.

HILLYER: I think that's right, but I also think it's very appropriate that you led into this talking about John McCain at the same time you were talking about the tiger in San Francisco, because I think McCain sometimes has as much trouble keeping his temper as the San Francisco Zoo had keeping his tiger in. And I do think that that has caught up with him in the past, and he might surge now, but it might catch up with him again in the future.

LOWRY: Let's look at a story the "Washington Times" had today about Mike Huckabee and his record on illegal immigration. This is a quote from that story, "Mike Huckabee is overselling his record of cracking down on illegal aliens as governor, claiming he ordered his state police to arrest illegal aliens, when in fact he never signed the agreement with federal authorities that would have allowed it. Mr Huckabee signed a bill that began the process, but he never followed through with signing an agreement with DHS to secure training for state police officers. Without it, they cannot enforce federal immigration law."

Leslie, is this immigration issue an Achilles heel for Mike Huckabee?

SANCHEZ: I think it's an Achilles heel for the Republican party. Let's look at the fact that candidates that ran in 2006 strictly on immigration platforms lost. It's an important issue, but really the rhetoric of this is not something that lends itself to sound bites. And I'm ready for the parties on both sides to get to a real immigration discussion.

LOWRY: Quinn, you were down there in Arkansas. You know Mike Huckabee intimately. What do you make of the story?

HILLYER: Once again, the story shows a different Mike Huckabee than the pretend Mike Huckabee on the stump. Mike Huckabee is now pretending to be a really strong supporter of cracking down on illegal immigration. The fact of the matter is his record is otherwise. The story is definitely accurate, and it could hurt Huckabee.

COLMES: Let's talk about South Carolina. Don't forget, right after Iowa, New Hampshire, then a couple days later there's South Carolina. Last time, John McCain did not do so well. But now is John McCain competitive? Let's play a short ad that he's got running to help him win South Carolina.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: One man had the courage to call for change. One man didn't play politics with the truth. One man stands up to the special interests.

SEN JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Stand up. We're Americans -- we're Americans, and we'll never surrender. They will.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COLMES: Does, Doug Schoen, John McCain have a chance this time to reverse what happened last time he ran in South Carolina?

SCHOEN: Absolutely, Alan. If he comes out of Iowa with a strong showing, wins New Hampshire, he will be very competitive in South Carolina. Already the polls are showing movement by McCain in South Carolina. So yes, he could do it.

COLMES: Why can't you "National Review" guys go for a real conservative like John McCain?

LOWRY: I don't think you should be defining real conservatives, Alan.

(CROSS TALK)

COLMES: Leslie, isn't he the real deal? You want to talk about conservatives, John McCain, that's it, isn't it? In terms of someone who can win?

SANCHEZ: That's very much a real possibility, and you have to look at the fact that John McCain supporters are interesting. They are about 20 percent of the vote. And they consistently remained at that percentage through most of the summer and part of the fall. The people that believe and love John McCain have stood by him. There's no doubt they're surging again.

SCHOEN: I think there's something else, Alan, which is the war is working for McCain in away that it was hurting him before.

COLMES: That could be it too. Let's talk about something who's not really a conservative named Mitt Romney. You have an anti-on 527 group ad on the issue of abortion. Americans Right to Life putting out this commercial.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Once upon a time there was a man named Mitt who said a very bad thing.

MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I believe that abortion should be safe and legal in this country.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Then he thought of campaigning in Utah and said, I am not pro-choice. But when he came back to liberal Massachusetts --

ROMNEY: I will preserve and protect a woman's right to choose.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COLMES: Quinn, isn't this becoming more and more the narrative of the Romney campaign? Whatever it is, he marched with his father, his father marched with Martin Luther King, then he marched with Martin Luther King, then he was on the moon mission with Neil Armstrong. You know, are people having enough of this flip-flopping?

HILLYER: They might be having enough of it. The truth is, McCain actually did govern -- I mean, Romney did govern as a conservative, again, which is more than you can say for Mike Huckabee.

COLMES: Doug Schoen, does Romney have a problem?

SCHOEN: Romney has a serious problem because a good 50 to 60 percent of the vote in the Republican primary are social conservatives. He's flip- flopped on guns. He's flip-flopped on abortion, as the ad suggests. He's got real problems.

COLMES: One item really quickly --

SANCHEZ: I was going to say, you can't discount the fact that he did win the Iowa Straw Poll, that he did build a strong base among evangelical conservatives. A lot of people like to discount that because of the surge of Huckabee, but the reality is a lot of social conservatives have accepted Romney.

COLMES: Mike Huckabee going pheasant hunting. Let's show tape of this. Every time there's a presidential race, it's goose hunting with John Kerry -- they've always got to show that they've got a gun and can shoot animals. Quinn, again, you're the Arkansas guy here. Is this an accurate representation of Mike Huckabee, going pheasant hunting? Does he do it every Sunday right after church?

HILLYER: For all I know, he does. He apparently did bag a bird on this trip, and that's one thing that will not be taken away from him, even if his record is.

COLMES: We're going to have lots more to come. Gallup polls ranking the most admired women in American. We'll unveil the big winners and surprising losers when we get back on HANNITY AND COLMES.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COLMES: We continue with the fastest segments in politics. Good news out of North Carolina for Hillary Clinton. The Tar Heel State has been a solid red state in the past. A new Rasmussen Poll has Clinton closing in on Giuliani with 39 percent to his 40. The same poll shows her beating Romney 42-40.

Is this going to finally silence the critics who call her unelectable? We now continue with our panel. Doug Schoen, you're the pollster here. First of all, what's happening to Giuliani?

SCHOEN: Giuliani is imploding. There are a lot of questions about Mitt Romney, as we've been suggesting. What this poll says to me is that North Carolina, and probably most of the south, is up for grabs. There's a lot of dissatisfaction with Bush, a lot of dissatisfaction with the Republicans, 20 percent undecided, any one state.

COLMES: Once they get a load of who's actually running, then they say I'm going with the other person, that really changes the numbers?

SCHOEN: It certainly will change when the field is selected, and North Carolina is reliably Republican. But this poll suggests it could be different.

COLMES: Leslie, you are a Republican. You shouldn't get too excited about how Hillary can't win, can't turn a red state blue. You never know what's going to happen between now and election day, right?

SANCHEZ: No, that's clearly the case, but we do think we know, the more people who get to know Hillary Clinton, in comparison to Republican candidates, Republican candidates fare better. I mean, consistently --

COLMES: That's not what we're just showing up here. We just showed the opposite.

SANCHEZ: Realistically -- you were the one touting she was inevitable and she was so strong. I don't think --

COLMES: I never said inevitable. A lot of people in the media did. It looked like that for a while. Nobody wants an inevitable candidate. You have to work for it.

SANCHEZ: Now they're seeing if she can skate by Iowa. Let's keep it in perspective. We're very early on, but we will know soon.

COLMES: Come back tomorrow, I'll show you another poll. Here's an example of retail politics. This is the way it actually works in Iowa, because Bill Richardson -- now, I think he's a great candidate, but you don't see a lot of him on the radar screen. Here he is; he's at a diner, at a coffee place. He's talking to 18 people. This is the way it works, where you actually get to meet just about every voter.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Can you give a brief outline of some of the major points?

GOV BILL RICHARDSON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Yes, I would withdraw all the troops within a year. I would put some troops in Kuwait, and I would put more some troops in Afghanistan.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COLMES: Quinn Hillyer, this has been one of the few candidates who actually said, I will get out of Iraq within the first year, if I'm president of the United States, and there he is expanding upon what he would do among a small group of people in a coffee shop in Iowa. He's telling what exactly he would do.

HILLYER: That is one of the charms of Iowa, although I would note that I think Richardson talked to more people when he was trying to get Monica Lewinsky a job than he was talking to there in that coffee shop.

COLMES: That is very funny, and I see a campaign ad.

SCHOEN: I will say this, given Bill Richardson's experience internationally, given his strength in the south and southwest, he will be on a short list that Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama has for vice- president.

COLMES: Why are people like Richardson, and even Chris Dodd, who also has a very good resume, is a very smart guy, why do they not resonate with enough people?

SCHOEN: Tough to break through, Alan. There are three candidates who are resonating, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards. There just isn't enough air space. Chris Dodd and Bill Richardson are terrific guys. They'll serve in high roles in Clinton's cabinet, or Barack Obama's cabinet, if one of those two are elected, but just no room to break through.

COLMES: Leslie, Quinn's very funny line aside, you've got to admit, here's a guy that was energy secretary, U.N. ambassador, governor of a state, actually lowered taxes, governor of New Mexico. He has a sterling resume and should probably be given more credit on the campaign trail than he's currently getting.

SANCHEZ: One thing, he's a very likable guy. There's nobody that doubts that. And he does very well in retail politics. He's built his career on that. He's the guy that goes to the ice houses and hangs out with folks. People like that. But at the same time, he does not have the name I.D. or the presence to overcome really the coronation of Hillary Clinton. And that is the biggest obstacle that all the Democrats are facing.

COLMES: Doug, if you had to pick right now, who are the nominees?

SCHOEN: I would say it's going to be Hillary Clinton and I will go out on a limb and say John McCain.

COLMES: You say John McCain. Will the "National Review" change its endorsement?

LOWRY: Tune in a couple of weeks. Speaking of Hillary Clinton, let's look at this eye opening, A-1 story the "New York Times" had on Hillary Clinton. It had this passage in it, "in seeking the Democratic presidential nomination, Mrs. Clinton lays claim to two traits nearly every day, strength and experience. But as the junior senator from New York, she has few significant legislative accomplishments to her name. She has cast herself instead as a first lady like no other, a full partner to her husband in his administration. And she says all the stronger and more experienced for her eight years with a front row seat on history."

Then, Doug, this piece goes on to say she didn't have a security clearance. She didn't weigh in at all on Somalia and Haiti and some other foreign policy issues. And when her husband was making the very important deciding of whether to bomb bin Laden or not, she wasn't speaking to him because of the Monica Lewinsky flap. Does this undercut her experience argument?

SCHOEN: I was there, Rich, and I worked with both Clintons for six years in the White House. I can tell you that Bill Clinton consulted with her on virtually every decision he made. So her claim to experience is right. She's hawkish on foreign policy. She was in the minority as the senator for the bulk of her term, so it's tough to pass legislation. I think that she was a good senator. I think she was a full partner of President Clinton.

I think the story is largely unfair. The story also pointed out that she had gone to some 79 countries and had been an ambassador of good will and had helped build peace in places like northern Ireland.

LOWRY: So, Leslie, do you think visiting 79 countries and being a good will ambassador is the kind of experience that should put Hillary over the top in this race? Leslie?

SANCHEZ: Thank you. She had a very good tour guide on those 79 countries, but I don't think that qualifies anybody because she can read a travel guide. The bigger distinction is, Bill Clinton himself said she was not a co-president. He down-played that role. I think she basically served, as other first ladies, being a sounding board -- she admits that -- to her husband in his decision making. But, again, it's an example of her inflating her resume to suit her political needs.

LOWRY: Let's look at some Gallup numbers here about who is the most admired woman in America. Hillary Clinton won for the sixth year in a row. Let's look at these numbers. Hillary Clinton clocks in at 18 percent, nosing out Oprah Winfrey at 16, Condi at five, Angelina Jolie and Laura Bush at three -- and that's kind of tragic -- Margaret Thatcher at two, Benazir Bhutto at two. And then you have Nancy Pelosi down with some others at one percent.

Quinn, what does it say to you if Nancy Pelosi is running behind Margaret Thatcher in the admired woman category?

HILLYER: Well, it means that Margaret Thatcher is a great lady of the age. But I'm not sure that I would buy much into a poll that puts Angelina Jolie up there with Laura Bush. Although, I can see putting her with Hillary Clinton. I mean, Angelina Jolie is good at these foreign affairs.

LOWRY: Doug, as a professional, do you put any stock in these numbers?

SCHOEN: I would say this, it's good news for Hillary that she's at the top of the poll. She's six times more popular than, I guess, Angelina and Laura Bush.

LOWRY: And that's the standard in America, isn't it? If you're more popular than Angelina --

SCHOEN: She's ahead of Oprah, and I think that works to her advantage.

LESLIE: Come on, guys. I'm sorry, the poll is nonsense.

LOWRY: We've got to leave it there. Leslie, thanks so much. Thanks, Quinn. Thanks, Doug.

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