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December 21, 2007

Robert Novak On Baptists & Huckabee

Hannity & Colmes

COLMES: Welcome to HANNITY AND COLMES. I'm Alan Colmes. Sitting in tonight, once again, for Sean, Mark Steyn. Nice to see you once again.

MARK STEYN, FOX NEWS GUEST ANCHOR: Great to be with you, Alan.

COLMES: You have a little carbon foot print right over there, like you said last night?

STEYN: Huge carbon foot print.

COLMES: Right to our top story tonight; it's less than two weeks until the Iowa caucuses, and there's a flurry of activity as the candidates move into their final push towards what they hope will be a victory in the Hawkeye State. Right now it's too close to call a clear winner for either party, and the same is true in New Hampshire, where a brand-new Gallup poll, released today, shows Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama in a dead heat in the Granite State.

Joining us now for the fastest two segments in politics, radio talk show hosts Michael Reagan and Stephanie Miller, and from the "Washington Times," Tony Blankley. Welcome to HANNITY AND COLMES.

Michael Reagan, neither party, Republicans especially, don't have a candidate they like. No candidate polls at 50 percent. They have a real horse race in the Democratic party. You can't predict what's going to happen in Iowa or New Hampshire, can you?

MICHAEL REAGAN, RADIO TALK SHOW HOST: Nobody can. This is the way it works. It always works like this, Alan. Nothing's changed in all these years of politics. As you get closer to the date of the caucuses and the primary, everything gets very, very close. That's why you see Obama and Hillary neck and neck in New Hampshire. That's why you see what's going on in Iowa as we speak.

Nobody's going to make up their minds about Iowa until probably December 26th or maybe December 27th, after they get through the whole Christmas operation. I haven't even bought a present for my wife yet. I haven't decided on that.

COLMES: Where's my present? Nothing for your favorite liberal.

REAGAN: I always call you Christmas day.

COLMES: Actually, you do, very often. People don't know that we speak. Don't reveal that. Stephanie, the truth is Democrats have a field of candidates they're more happy with, according to the polls, than Republicans are, who don't like anybody that they've got running?

STEPHANIE MILLER, RADIO TALK SHOW HOST: That's absolutely true. Every day you pick up that Huckabee rock, Alan, there's something new and horrifying under it. So I don't know. Rudy plummeted in the last few weeks. It's just that now they've picked up a Huckabee rock.

(CROSS TALK)

COLMES: Let's talk about the latest on Mitt Romney. That's an ever changing story too, because now it comes out that in 1978, Tony Blankley, Mitt Romney, who yesterday was talking about how his father marched with Martin Luther King -- today it turns out he went a step further in 1978, in an interview with the "Boston Herald," talking about the Mormon Church and racial discrimination; he said my father and I marched with Martin Luther King through the streets of Detroit.

Maybe he'll flip-flop on that. That will change in about ten minutes. But, Tony, another story yet from Tony Blankley -- I mean from Mitt Romney, inserting himself even further into the Martin Luther King story.

TONY BLANKLEY, "THE WASHINGTON TIMES": I don't know why he made that statement. He's had trouble from the beginning of a question of inauthenticity. And because of his flips on issues so close to when he declared for the presidency -- so this only feeds into a lack of credibility. I think that's been his danger zone all along.

Other than that -- I mean, what he says now is almost a perfect fit for the party, but an awful lot of people, including myself, have some doubt --

REAGAN: May I jump in?

COLMES: Michael.

REAGAN: What a surprise, politicians pandering during elections to certain groups of people.

COLMES: But changing --

(CROSS TALK)

REAGAN: Did he make a mistake? Yes, he made a mistake in saying what he said. Remember, it was Bill Clinton who sat in the back of the bus after he heard about the story of Rosa Parks --

(CROSS TALK)

COLMES: We move forward. The fastest two segments -- to make it that way, me move forward, practicing dirty politics. Fox News/Opinion Dynamics poll; here's what the respondents said, 22 percent said Clinton does it; eight percent Obama, six percent Edwards, 32 percent none of them do it, Stephanie. So more people think that most people don't play dirty politics.

MILLER: Couldn't we go back to Mitt for a second, because everybody's saying they called him flipper, flipper. I can't believe Tancredo threw his support. He can't even keep the illegal immigrants off his front lawn, for gods sake. Come on, it depends on what the definition of saw is; I saw my father march with Martin Luther King. I'm a hunter; now it's just vermin.

BLANKLEY: We need to give credit where credit is due, Laura Ingraham used the Flipper song for John Kerry in 2004.

(CROSS TALK)

REAGAN: To go back to the subject, Hillary; whose campaign was it that tried to sell us Obama might have been a drug dealer at one point?

COLMES: It was one guy who has since resigned.

(CROSS TALK)

STEYN: Let's get to the smarts of the Hillary campaign, since you mention it. Remember that Fox News poll a couple of days ago that showed more people thought Hillary Clinton was smart than thought Bill Clinton was smart. Now, apparently, Bill Clinton agrees with them. He said, today, "the reason she ought to be president is that she's proven in every position she's ever had in life that she's a world class genius in making positive changes in other people's lives."

Like what, Stephanie?

MILLER: What? Well, they're both smart. I'm happy to have both of them back in the White House. That's fine. I'm happy to have all that peace and prosperity back.

BLANKLEY: There's a crudeness to their effort to sell themselves.

REAGAN: What about the homeless man in New York in 2000 who asked her for a dollar when she was leaving the event, and she walked away from him. How about the waitress in St. Louis that was stiffed on the tip. She really helps other people, doesn't she?

STEYN: She's the Queen Mother of England. She doesn't carry cash. Let's go to this poll in New Hampshire. "Boston Herald," "Boston Globe;" they've endorsed McCain. "Union Leader" in New Hampshire, "Valley News" of Lebanon, New Hampshire has endorsed McCain. He's within seven points of Romney. Is he going to steal New Hampshire from Mitt Romney, Tony?

BLANKLEY: Well, if he's going to win anywhere, it's going to be New Hampshire. If Romney loses to Huckabee in Iowa, he'll lose momentum, and McCain may be able to slip by. I still have my doubts about that. My sense is that McCain's time has passed. But he's clearly having a resurgence. If he's going to have one, it's New Hampshire.

Give him about a 40 percent chance of winning New Hampshire.

STEYN: Let's go back to the Huckabee rock, as Stephanie put it. Michael, what do you think of this business, Condi slams Huck. Huck said that the Bush administration had an arrogant bunker mentality, and Condi thwacked him down on that. This guy's embarrassing on foreign policy, isn't he?

REAGAN: Well, listen, he was attacked -- the last three days, Ann Coulter attacked him, Condi attacked him on behalf of the president of the United States, and today Rush Limbaugh hit him for there hours because his supporters decided to blog Rush Limbaugh, blog me also. You can't mention Huckabee on your show without his supporters coming after you. So for three hours Rush went after him today.

No, Huckabee's making some stupid mistakes. He's reading his own press stories, thinks he's bigger than he is and going after people he should never have gone after.

STEYN: You're just part of that Wall Street/Washington axis.

MILLER: I disagree.

(CROSS TALK)

STEYN: The fastest two segments in politics. Back with our panel in a minute. And then are Baptist turning their backs on Huckabee now? Robert Novak will be here to explain what could be a potential problem for the rising GOP candidate. Plus, more than 400 prominent scientists tell Al Gore he's wrong. The global debate is far from closed. The latest on the climate change battle. All that coming up on HANNITY AND COLMES.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: For me, Michigan is personal. It's inexcusable that Michigan is undergoing a one state recession. High levels of unemployment, industry is shrinking here. Jobs are going away.

We're going to invest in technology and research to make sure that American goods are pushing into other markets.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

STEYN: That's Mitt Romney's latest TV ad, targeting the voters in Michigan. Many of the candidates have been ignoring the Wolverine state, but Romney's giving his home town special attention. Will it help his campaign? We continue now with our panel.

Tony, Michigan gets overlooked between New Hampshire and South Carolina. Do you think it will be quite important for Romney?

BLANKLEY: Well, Romney's in a difficult situation where it's considered a home state. It's his father's home state, although he's from Massachusetts more recently. So he has do well, probably win. Nobody's taking it real seriously. Huckabee is coming up in the polls in Michigan as well.

So I wouldn't say it's a lose-lose for Romney, but he's going to have to win decisively to turn it into a plus. It could easily be a minus for him.

STEYN: Let's go to the candidate who gets talked about all the time, you certainly see plenty of signs for him. And he raises a ton of cash. The "New York Sun" had a story about his fund-raising prowess today, but the problem is translating this into votes. And he can't seem to get any respect from the Washington establishment, in terms of translating it into votes.

Michael, is this purely an Internet phenomenon that will have no resonance on the ground whatsoever, come actual voting time?

REAGAN: Absolutely, it's Internet. The problem he has with buying respect with all that money is when you look at his supporters, when they're wearing pirate hats and carrying signs to look into 9/11, like somehow we're complicit in what happened on 9/11, you're not going to get respect from the people who are going to be out voting in the caucuses or in New Hampshire, any one of the states.

So he may have a ton of money from the Internet from those yahoos, but the reality of it is it's not going to buy him vote.

STEYN: You don't buy him as a small government Constitutionalist in the Reagan tradition then?

REAGAN: Listen, as my father would say, well, I'm not going to vote for him.

COLMES: That's a good impression.

STEYN: That's very good. No hope for Ron Paul, Stephanie?

MILLER: I think the most significant thing, Tony, is that if you look at military families, they give the most to Ron Paul of any Republican candidate. And he's -

REAGAN: Who says that?

MILLER: He's the only Republican candidate that wants to get out of Iraq, like 70 percent of the American people do. So I think that is significant. When he does the Republican debates, he's like piggy on "Lord of The Flies." I think they're going to kill him with a rock. He gets booed at the Republican debates. He's the only one talking sense, like my dad and Goldwater did in 1964.

STEYN: Ron Paul landslide, 70 percent of people agree with him. Tony?

BLANKLEY: I think he's as much a crank as he is a libertarian. His foreign policy is a farce, and nobody outside of the periphery of politics takes it seriously. And he's not going to get more than two to four or five percent in any election. So he can spend as much money as he raises. I don't think it's going to make any difference.

COLMES: Let's talk a little Obama here. Apparently, Barack Obama is talking about a possible cabinet position for Arnold Schwarzenegger. Let's take a look.

There they are. They have a little bit of chemistry there, at least if you put those pictures together. So Stephanie, is that a good move for Barack Obama? I thought we had audio on that. That's why I paused for a second. Stephanie, what do you think about that?

MILLER: Alan, I like it. It has the same sort of multi-culturalism that our California gubernatorial debate did here, between Arianna Huffington and Arnold Schwarzenegger. You know, the one you needed a UN head set for (INAUDIBLE).

I thought we were going to have to state our California state slogan to, what?

COLMES: We have a whole great comedy show here.

REAGAN: Can I jump in on Schwarzenegger?

COLMES: Yes.

REAGAN: Why is Obama doing that? Because he'd like to win California. You a have governor who runs to the right, leans to the left. The reality of it is you have the governor saying he's going to let 22,000 criminals out of jail. He'd be better off running with Huckabee than he would be running with Obama.

COLMES: Guess who else -- Stephanie, did you want to say something?

MILLER: He had to become that thing, Alana -- to govern in California. What's it called? Oh, yes, a Democrat. That's what he had to become.

COLMES: Here's another person about to jump in. Cynthia McKinney, is she going to make a return? And here's something she's putting out.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP

CYNTHIA MCKINNEY, FORMER HOUSE MEMBER: The illegal, immoral, and undeclared war in Iraq wages on. American soldiers, Iraqi children, the troops and our Constitution are all casualties of that shamefully unnecessary enterprise. The Republicans have deceived us; the Democrats have failed us.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COLMES: Tony Blankley, she wants the Green Party nomination. Could she be the Ralph Nader of this up coming election?

BLANKLEY: No, Ralph Nader is a pretty sensible guy whose policies I disagree with. This is a woman who is on the edge of the lunatic fringe. She, I believe, accuses us of causing September 11. She is -- I remember her from the Hill. She is really lost in reality.

COLMES: Stephanie, is she --

MILLER: Alan, here's the one thing she has over Huckabee. She doesn't need Chuck Norris to come with her. She will kick you in the head herself if you don't vote for her.

COLMES: That's right.

(CROSS TALK)

REAGAN: I see the trifecta now, Cynthia McKinney, Kucinich, and Paul. They're running. I don't where they're going, but they're not taking me along.

COLMES: You need to have this as part of campaign. It really puts things in perspective.

REAGAN: Nobody cares about Cynthia McKinney. Nobody's going to vote for Cynthia McKinney unless she writes herself in. She makes, as Tony, said, praying for Ralph Nader to come back.

COLMES: All right, Michael, Stephanie, Tony, we thank you all very much for being with us tonight.

Coming up, Mike Huckabee is surging in the polls. It seems the former Baptist minister isn't getting much support from fellow Baptists. Robert Novak will explain why.

And 400 scientists object to Al Gore's "Inconvenient Truth." They say global warming isn't man made. The latest on the climate crisis debate. We'll have it for you coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COLMES: Mike Huckabee's presidential campaign has defied the odds with his recent upswing in the polls. The former Arkansas governor and Baptist minister has become a major player for the Republican nomination. But not all his fellow Baptists have lined up behind him. With us now, syndicated columnist and Fox News contributor Robert Novak.

Talk about how this could be hurting Huckabee. Is he being hurt by this, Robert?

ROBERT NOVAK, SYNDICATED COLUMNIST: I think so when the word gets out. He's essentially an evangelical candidate. That's his support. That's the reason that people are coming out to vote for him in the Iowa caucuses. And when you find Judge Paul Pressler (ph) of Texas, one of the most esteemed conservatives in the Baptist movement, who has endorsed Fred Thompson, and is know to feel that Huckabee was on the wrong side in the Baptist wars, fighting between the liberals and the conservatives; I think that's a serious problem.

Huckabee takes the position that the Baptists are almost obliged to support him, that they would be abandoning him to the secularists if they didn't support him. But when somebody like Judge Pressler supports Fred Thompson, it shows there's a split in the movement.

COLMES: As I understand it, what Huckabee did -- I mean, he's pro- environment. He wants to reach out to people from different countries. I guess some people on the far right have a problem with that. But isn't that part of what Christians actually preach, caring for your fellow person, caring for the environment, being a -- stewardship of God's creation? Isn't he doing what many Christians would say that's what we should do?

NOVAK: Alan, you may not realize it, but there's been a huge fight in the Baptist -- Southern Baptist Convention, where they felt that the establishment people, people like you, were taking over.

COLMES: People like me.

NOVAK: The Christian left was taking over, and the conservatives came back and fought. Governor Huckabee was on the opposite side of that when he was president of the Arkansas Baptist Convention. And Judge Pressler, who doesn't say much about him on the record, does say on the record that he never knew a conservative that Governor Huckabee appointed when he was in the church.

COLMES: How much does this mean in terms of if he even gets a nomination, general election, how powerful is the block he's tries to woo as we head toward 2008? Are they as big as they were four, eight, 12 years ago?

NOVAK: Well, I think they are. They're essential to his getting nominated. The question is, if the ordinary evangelical begins to say that, my goodness, the conservatives in our movement don't like Huckabee, he's in big trouble. He's in big trouble as early as January 3rd on the night of the Iowa caucuses.

COLMES: Let's talk about that. Is the Huck-a-surge -- or Hucka-boom, as some have called it -- could he generally get -- genuinely get the nomination?

NOVAK: Nobody I know thinks he could, but Alan, I have to tell you, nobody thought he'd get this far. Nobody thought he'd be this far ahead in the polls. I can tell you now that the McCain people and the Giuliani people want him to win in Iowa, figuring he doesn't have the organization or the money or the evangelical support is not so important in New Hampshire. They don't figure he could be a problem, and they have to stop Romney in Iowa.

So he is -- nobody cares for Huckabee very much, but the Giuliani and particularly the McCain people see him as their only hope to stop the danger of Romney sweeping the board.

STEYN: Robert, this is a fascinating column of yours, because the wrap against Huckabee to date has been that he's not politically a conservative. But essentially what these Baptist fellows are saying is that in Baptist terms he's not a conservative either. That's got to hurt him, hasn't it.

NOVAK: That's right. He was definitely on the other side in this really aggressive, vicious, may I say, war in the Southern Baptist Convention. It was in the 1970's and through 1980's. He was definitely on the liberal side. These people have long memories and remember that. But, Mark, let me tell you that, nevertheless, there are certain kinds of Baptists and Evangelicals that say this is one of our own. He may not be perfect. That's what one of the Baptists that I interviewed said. He may not be perfect, but he's one of ours.

So it will be interesting to see how that plays out. I believe he has to have solid evangelical support even to win in Iowa.

STEYN: You get the sense that he could hold enough of that support in Iowa, but at some point this does have to kick in. Do you think by South Carolina, for example -- I assume he has no chance in New Hampshire. A good third place showing is probably his most likely result there. But by South Carolina, a lot of this stuff has got to kick in, hasn't it?

NOVAK: I think it will. You look at him; there's so many things about him that make him an inauthentic conservative. For example, he's against school choice. He got the School Teacher's Union endorsement in New Hampshire. What kind of Republican gets the school teachers' endorsement? So on top of this, you find that he has been on the liberal or the moderate side in the Baptist wars, which may not be known in the ordinary non-Baptists. But I think most Baptists know about it. I think that's a problem.

STEYN: Yes, it sounds like he might make a good Christian left leader, like they've apparently been looking for for some time.

NOVAK: I think that is the case. And he has -- he has kind of a mean side. I wrote in the column that he kind of jumped on Judge Pressler when he encountered him in California several weeks ago. But in Texas on Tuesday he -- I'm sorry, yes, on Tuesday for a fund-raiser, he invited Judge Pressler. He embraced him. So, Governor Huckabee is -- you can't always be a mean guy in politics. You have to pretend you're nice.

STEYN: He's done a good job of it so far. It will be interesting to see how long that holds up. Robert Novak, thanks very much.

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