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December 12, 2007

Post-Debate Frank Luntz Focus Group

Hannity & Colmes

HANNNITY: Welcome to HANNITY AND COLMES. We'll get right to our top story tonight. The world was watching today as the Republican presidential candidates met for the final debate before the Iowa caucuses, just 22 short days from now. And our own Frank Luntz watched the debate along with a focus group of Republican voters, and he has their reactions. Frank, good to see you.

FRANK LUNTZ, WWW.LUNTZ.COM: Hey, it's a pleasure.

HANNITY: You thought it was a big night. They thought it was a big night for Mitt Romney.

LUNTZ: They thought it was a good performance for Mitt Romney. For the first time, they saw him as being presidential. He's won one of your Fox debates before. But he's never done as well as he did this time. A plurality of people walked in supporting Rudy Giuliani, and they walked out a lot more questioning of Giuliani's front-runner status. And they thought that Romney was rehearsed. They thought that he was prepared. But they thought positively of it.

There are a couple clips I want to show you. The first one is on education. Romney has been able to do something that Giuliani has not, which is to demonstrate that what he's done in the state of Massachusetts, he can do nationally. Let's take a look at how they reacted to education. Remember, the higher the lines go, the more favorable the response.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ROMNEY: We test our kids. We have high standards. We teach them in English, English immersion. We say to be successful in America, you have to speak the language of America. We also put in place incentives for kids to do well. For those that take the graduation exam, which you have to take to get out of high school, we say that you're going to get -- if you score in the top 25 percent of the test -- a four-year tuition-free scholarship.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LUNTZ: Now, what you don't see in that clip is he also talks about the responsibility of parents. Romney has figured out how to use the right language on faith, the right language on family. And actually, with education, the right language on freedom.

HANNITY: We've been going through all these debates together. First of all, I love what you're doing here. To get the instant feedback, you begin to see what messages are resonating, what things are not working well, whether or not attacking each other is a good plan or idea, or going after the Democrats. I think this is all valuable material, especially when we get to the general election.

Here's the question I have, all of the candidates at one time or another either won this debate, had a good night, a bad night, and it literally changes every debate. So what should our audience make of that shifting?

LUNTZ: The first thing is Mike Huckabee would not be where he is today if it were not for the debates. He did not have any of the money of the other candidates. He did not have the organization. He did not have the air play, except for the debates. Every one of the Fox debates that we tested he came in first or second. He has a consistently good performance.

Second is that they set a tone for the coming two or three or four weeks. This is the last Republican debate before Iowa Republicans vote. You bet they paid attention.

HANNITY: When we look at the polls, we see that Huckabee is now in Iowa, but we really haven't gotten any polls -- he's been under a lot of fire now the last four days over a number of issues, clemency, pardons, parole, comments that he made about AIDS, this issue -- we'll ask Governor Romney about this when he's on a little bit -- about his comments about Mormonism that will appear in the Sunday "New York Times Magazine." So he might see a decline based on the scrutiny now that he's a front-runner?

LUNTZ: In fact, it was easy for him when he was under the radar screen. Now that he's above the radar screen, everything is taking aim. You feel like the NRA has brought out their guns. I've got to show one more segment. He talked about taxation. And every Republican does well when they talk about taxation, but Romney took a different approach. Instead of tax cuts for everyone, he focused on the hard-working middle class. Watch how high the lines climb in this segment.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ROMNEY: I don't stay at night worrying about the taxes that rich people are paying, to tell you the truth. I'm concerned about the taxes that middle class families are paying. They're under a lot of pressure. Gasoline is expensive, home heating oil, particularly in the northeast, is very difficult for folks. Health care costs are going through the roof. Education costs and higher education costs are overwhelming. And as a result, we need to reduce the burden on middle income families in this country.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COLMES: Didn't Thompson right after that say something like, you're not worried about taxes for rich people or being over-taxed.

LUNTZ: Thompson was very funny. The two of them went back and forth. What's interesting is that Romney not only scored well in the individual sound bites, but the overall presentation -- I've got to emphasize this -- it's not just where they stand on issues, which is what the reporters always talk about. It's the attributes. Do you trust him? Do you have faith in him? Is this someone who says what he means and means what he says? Is this someone who is good in times of crisis. In all of those attributes, Romney did well in today's debate.

COLMES: I want to show a focus group right now. This is a focus group where they're going to talk about Romney and their reaction. You said many of them came in as Giuliani supporters at the beginning?

LUNTZ: Romney had a very small percentage of the people that we had there, and he turned them because of his performance. The language is absolutely incredible. These are the words you want to hear if you want to be elected president.

COLMES: Let's take a look.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP

LUNTZ: How many of you thought Mitt Romney won the debate? Raise your hands. It's a clear consensus. What is it that Romney did that you found so positive?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He was very optimistic and forward looking, and he was the only one who really talked about bringing together the fiscal, economic, and social conservatives of the Reagan era. He was the only one who said that.

LUNTZ: Why Romney?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He was very articulate. He looked very presidential. He was very secure in his positions.

LUNTZ: You were concerned about his religious background before. Are you still?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: He totally clarified all of my questions on his religion, and he's the only one who is very open and very clear and clearly, he's electable.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He showed that he had very good knowledge of the issues. He looked presidential. He backed up what he was going to say economically, socially, environmentally.

LUNTZ: None of you felt he was scripted?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He's very, very cool, and he knows what he wants to say, and he's very good on the stump. So I think that comes through.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: To me, it's a salesman. I don't want a salesman as a president.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LUNTZ: OK, she was the one critic in all of this. But let me invite people out there, if you want to participate in one of these Fox focus groups, all you have to do is come to WWW.Luntz.com, and you'll have the opportunity. Sign up. We'll be all over the country. It's your chance to get on the air, put forward your point of view, because Fox wants to hear it.

COLMES: We're going to talk about one of the key moments in the debate coming up in the next segment. First, though, are people really paying attention? It's not even the New Year yet. And you're saying yes, Huckabee shot up because of his performance in the debates. But are most Americans really paying attention at this point?

LUNTZ: In all the polling that's been done, more Americans are paying attention to this election than any election.

COLMES: A 2:00 in the afternoon debate on a Wednesday.

LUNTZ: They might not have seen it at 2:00, but they will watch the commentary here on Fox. They will watch it on all the other networks, on - - they will read about it in the "Des Moines Register." I've got to tell you something, Alan, everybody cares about this election, because the future of America is at stake.

COLMES: I agree. I just hope they are focusing on it earlier than ever before.

LUNTZ: And they're focusing on issues. They're focusing on attributes. They care.

COLMES: More analysis of the debate with Frank Luntz coming up right after the break. And still to come tonight, straight off his debate in Iowa, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney will join us with his reaction to the latest poll numbers and all the activity from the trail, coming up on HANNITY AND COLMES.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COLMES: We continue with Frank Luntz. And there was a moment in the debate -- that's the one moment everybody's talking about. It's pretty controversial. But I guess Republicans may look at it differently than I will look at it. Set it up.

LUNTZ: I've been waiting for a Republican to stand up in some of these debates and say you know what, the moderator is biased. The questions are unfair. This sounds like a Democratic debate, except with the Republican candidates. And nobody did it until this debate, when Fred Thompson stands up -- and you'll see the clip right now -- and he says enough is enough. I'm not raising my hands. The dial shot up. In fact, he did it twice.

COLMES: But it wasn't a matter of left versus right.

LUNTZ: Let's take a look at just how favorable the reaction was when Fred Thompson said I'm not playing that game any more.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: By a show of hands, how many of you believe global climate change is a serious threat and caused by human activity?

THOMPSON: I'm not doing hand shows today.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: No hand shows?

No hand shows. Does that mean -- is that yes or no for you? Do you believe that global climate change is a serious threat and caused by human activity?

THOMPSON: Do you want to give me a minute to answer it.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: No, I don't.

THOMPSON: Then I'm not going to answer it.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: OK.

ROMNEY: How about 30 seconds?

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: No.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LUNTZ: Now, we're dial testing this, and they're going hell, yes! And some of the people weren't using the word hell. They've waited through this entire debate to finally see someone who says, you're not going to play games with us anymore. And they absolutely loved it. In fact, let's hear the sound.

Don't take my word for it. We asked people after the debate was over, what did you think of this moderator vis-a-vis the other ones? Watch how explicit they were about how disappointed they were in this moderator.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This was the worst moderator of any of the debates I've seen. She was antagonistic. She was, in some cases, obnoxious, in some cases rude. And she picked arguments with the candidates, which I thought was just a bad thing to do.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: She spoke very monotone, like she was very unenthusiastic about it.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: She put the candidates on the defensive.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Is there a reason why a lot of the Republican debates, they have Democratic moderators, but it's not reversed, with the Democratic debates; they don't have Republican moderators.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I don't think she's as bad as Anderson Cooper, who I think tried to type cast all Republicans as right wingers who are religious zealots and things like that.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: She was one of the most confrontational moderators that I've ever seen and I've watched a lot of political debates. Also, the "Des Moines Register," having lived in Des Moines for five years -- the "Des Moines Register" is extremely liberal, and she had an agenda obviously.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I think to ask a presidential candidate to raise your hand to answer a question in the debate is ludicrous.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LUNTZ: I've been waiting until this final Republican debate to have the opportunity to ask this question. Clearly voters out there are watching this debate. They are paying attention, Alan. And they don't like the way the moderators --

COLMES: You couldn't tell whether that moderator was left or right, liberal or conservative. There was no indication from the way she conducted it. Any moderator that said raise your hand --

LUNTZ: I understand that, but they looked at all the moderators. We asked them, how many of you have seen, a majority of the debates? Almost every participant had seen them, because they are watching. And they don't feel that these debates are fair to the Republicans.

HANNITY: I've got to tell you something, that was hilarious. That was priceless. It was necessary. And I've got to tell you something, when Fred Thompson said, well then I'm not going to answer, I fell off my chair. You said there was some guy that literally screamed out, expletive yes!

LUNTZ: But we don't know an FCC complaint.

HANNITY: This is cable, but we're not going to say it.

LUNTZ: Thompson was asked another question, because had the best sound bites of the evening. And they asked him about trade, and he turned it into an illegal immigration question. You'll notice I keep bringing up on this show -- I want the viewers to watch how high Thompson scores on this answer, because I still believe that illegal immigration is going to be one of the hot issues, and will determine who the Republican nominee is. Let's take a look.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

THOMPSON: I think free trade and fair read is the backbone of our economy. I think it's been just as good for us as it has Mexico. In fact, I think Mexico needs to think about that when they criticize us for trying to enforce our border. They export -- or send more people out of the country every year than we do, in terms of illegal aliens. So it's been a good thing for both countries.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LUNTZ: I think the secret for Fred Thompson's campaign, because he's the only candidate who can say it, he's got a clear record and a clear position on illegal immigration. If I were Fred Thompson's advisor, I'd be talking about illegal immigration every opportunity I had.

HANNITY: It's very interesting, this is so fluid, both the Democrats and the Republicans. There's going to be a debate with the Democrats tomorrow. You'll be back. We'll dial up. We'll focus group them for tomorrow here. But what's fascinating here is it's so fluid, and it's changing in Iowa. It's changing in New Hampshire, South Carolina.

And then you've got these emerging strategies, which we've discussed at length. Some people put their resources in the early states; some in the later states. We can't really tell right now what's going to happen.

LUNTZ: I've never been in a situation in my professional career where I can't call it. And even if I couldn't call it, I'd still try. This time, I don't dare. I don't know who is going to win Iowa between Hillary and Obama. I don't know who is going to win Iowa between Huckabee and Romney.

HANNITY: One fun thing that you've been doing is you did ask questions about HANNITY AND COLMES to the Republicans today, and tomorrow you'll ask the Democrats about HANNITY AND COLMES. Give us a quick synopsis.

COLMES: When you do it Democrats, make it COLMES AND HANNITY.

LUNTZ: What do you call this, a tease? Tomorrow, I'll tell the viewers right there what they think of Sean Hannity and Alan Colmes.

COLMES: No thank you.

LUNTZ: Tomorrow, we'll have Democrats and --

HANNITY: On my radio show, we have this thing called the Hate Hannity Hotline. Every other call is Alan. But besides that, it shows a little bit of a divide.

LUNTZ: There's one consensus. They all love these focus group segments.

HANNITY: Pat yourself on your back.

COLMES: You're going to focus group yourself, Frank? Is that what you're going to do?

LUNTZ: If I'm not going to do it, who else is?

HANNITY: Frank, we'll see you back here tomorrow. Democrats right here on the Fox News Channel, 2:00 p.m. Eastern, that debate. We'll have all the results coming up tomorrow night.

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