 | ||
 | Elian Gonzalez saga could haunt Obama | |
| Gitmo trial looms in election homestretch | |
| Back at Senate, Clinton treated like royal | |
| GOP favoritism in new IG report | |
| How Hoyer got the deal done | |
| LA Times/Bloomberg Poll: Obama +12 | |
| IN Polls: Prez Race Even, Gov Race Close | |
| McCain's Psychological Benefits | |
| VP Watch: Michigan Numbers | |
| The Charm Offensive Continues |
| A Transportation Stimulus | |
| McCain's Speech in Santa Barbara | |
| A Serious Energy Policy for Our Future | |
| The Imitators | |
| 'Victims' of Cut-Rate Loans |
|
December 03, 2007
A Month Out, Gauging The Dem Field
By Reid WilsonVIENNA, VIRGINIA -- One month from today, the tension will break. Iowans will step out of the cacophonous echo chamber in which they've been trapped for a year, and into a room full of friends and neighbors to begin their caucuses. With just a month to go, Iowa caucus-goers on both sides are taking final stock of the benefits and drawbacks each candidate brings to the field.
At the winter meeting of the Democratic National Committee, the final chance for candidates to win over their party leaders before votes are cast, those strengths and weaknesses were on full display. Most campaigns have at least something to be excited about. But every candidate faces challenges they must overcome and which otherwise could fatally wound their chances at the nomination.
If Iowa's caucuses were held today, most rival campaigns say they believe John Edwards would win. He alone began the race with an Iowa foundation, and his committed supporters are the goldmine any caucus-based campaign needs - largely older voters who have caucused before. Edwards' biggest strength, in brief, is that he came in second four years ago; his remaining base and the good will he generated put him in strong position for a good finish.
Edwards, though, has no illusions about where he stands in the race. "This campaign is about something much bigger than celebrity politics," Edwards told DNC members in Virginia. There, he is wrong. With Clinton and Obama in the race, Edwards is battling for oxygen as the media and voters obsess with two better-known candidates. Like it or not, he is involved in a celebrity campaign. Only trouble is, he's not one of them. His stint as John Kerry's vice presidential nominee gives him name recognition to be considered a top-tier candidate, but this year, being a rock star may be all that matters.
The front-runners' celebrity makes other candidates' tasks nearly impossible as well. No one on the Democratic side has the kind of experience Bill Richardson is able to boast. Others have served as chairs of major Senate committees, or in the White House. None, though, have negotiated the release of prisoners of war. Richardson excels in personal settings; accounts from the trail suggest he wins over supporters in small groups with ease, and a friendly chat with the neighborhood dictator must take a smooth touch.
But Richardson's skills do not translate into strong debate performances or moving speeches. And he has yet to decide his own position in the contest. He frequently calls on fellow Democrats to refrain from attacking; staying above the fray can lead to success, as John Kerry found out in 2004. But his position on Iraq is to the left of the rest of the field. "You can't say you're ending the war in Iraq if you're leaving thousands of troops behind," Richardson told DNC members. The shot at Clinton, Obama and Edwards shows Richardson has not yet committed to peacemaking within the field, though he has not attacked with conviction either. If he can't find his place in the field, voters won't be able to place him either.
Like Richardson, Joe Biden can brag of experience. Having chaired the Senate Foreign Relations and Judiciary Committees, no one at Friday's DNC meeting can lay better claim to the experience necessary to do the job than Biden. In debates, he seems at times exasperated with those who share the stage, as if he can't quite comprehend the naiveté he's forced to endure.
Biden's numbers have shown a slow and steady rise, though likely not enough to pull off an upset. He will never, though, lack for television time. It has been remarked that the most dangerous place in Washington is between Biden and a camera. But that's not always a good thing; the long-time Senator has a tendency to make unfortunate statements, as when he called Barack Obama "articulate," which was seen as a slight. Biden's mouth, which has frequently gotten him in trouble throughout his career, could prevent many caucus-goers to take him seriously.
No candidate had a better November than Barack Obama. He started out the month coming off a debate in Philadelphia, where Clinton stumbled for the first time. Coupled with an excellent speech at the Iowa Democrats' Jefferson Jackson Dinner, Obama has of late shown promise in Iowa, where several recent polls actually show him leading Clinton and Edwards. Going into the final stretch, every other candidate should envy Obama's position.
Still, some cannot help but feel that the parable of Occam's Razor applies to Obama; that is, the simplest explanation for a problem is usually the correct one. "The same old Washington textbook campaigns just won't do in this election," Obama said on Friday. "Triangulating and poll-driven positions because we're worried about what Mitt or Rudy might say about us just won't do." Trouble is, the same old Washington campaign is the standard for a reason: It works.
While the new kind of politics Obama wants is a wonderfully altruistic goal, it has yet to succeed, and he trails by wide margins in most states. If Obama pulls out the nomination, he will cause a fundamental reexamination of the way a campaign ought to be run. Until then, this new kind of campaign still finds him trailing in most states and in national polls.
The national front-runner, Hillary Clinton, who canceled her speech as a hostage crisis unfolded at a campaign office in New Hampshire, did not have to make a sale at the meeting. That's Clinton's biggest strength: She's a known commodity. Voters choose Clinton as their default nominee; other campaigns have had to play catch up from day one. After early primaries, when other candidates get a boost from good performances, Clinton will still lead polls in states where presidential hopefuls have yet to place television advertisements. The Democratic primary voters might conclude that the devil they know is better than the devil they don't.
As her fellow Democratic candidates do not hesitate to point out, though, to Republicans and many independents, the devil primary voters know is still the devil. Aside from her husband, there has been no Democrat to inspire more vitriol than Clinton has over the past decade and a half. For the last half decade, she alone has held the mantle. Clinton's biggest weakness is that, while she has a foundation perhaps more solid than any Democrat, she certainly begins any general election battle with a harder ceiling than other candidates.
Republicans, weakened by a terrible 2006 cycle and possessing a wounded national brand, know that and think Clinton provides their best hope for a win. Democrats, emboldened by victories last year yet desperate to reclaim 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, know that too.
Iowans are being bombarded by candidates, staff and volunteers virtually without pause. They have a month to go, and as they conclude their examinations, each contender's strengths and weaknesses are coming into sharper focus. How caucus-goers evaluate those traits will determine who emerges a winner, and who sees their chances end in Des Moines.
