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December 05, 2007

29 Days To Iowa: Gingrich On The 2008 Race

Hannity & Colmes

And now to our top story tonight, we're just 29 days until the Iowa caucuses on January 3rd, and the big news this week continues to be the surge of Mike Huckabee. For the first time today a national poll gives the former governor the lead, not just in Iowa, but across the nation.

Joining us now former speaker of the House and Fox news contributor Newt Gingrich. The speaker, by the way, is also the host and narrator of the film "Rediscovering God in America," now available on DVD. In fact, I want to talk to you in a moment about what Mitt Romney should say tomorrow.

But before we get to that, Mr. Speaker, welcome once again.

NEWT GINGRICH, FOX NEWS CONTRIBUTOR: Good to be with you.

COLMES: Let me ask you, given the Huckabee surge and the redistribution of points among the various candidates, does this make Newt Gingrich reassess whether you should have gotten into the race at a certain point?

GINGRICH: No, look, I think Mike Huckabee is doing an amazing job. The more people watch him, the more they believe in him. He's very comfortable with himself, is the phrase I hear most often. People tend to underestimate him. This is a man who got over 40 percent of the African- American vote in Arkansas getting re-elected at governor. He has a very attractive personality, and he's a small-state person running in Iowa where I think the style of small-town Arkansas goes over pretty well in small town Iowa. I was there yesterday. I was I Cedar Rapids in Muscatine and Des Moines, and I sense that there's a kind of pride among Iowans that they can't be bought, and that they kind of like watching this underdog come from behind.

Whether he can carry it out 29 days from now, Alan, we'll have to wait and see.

COLMES: Can he be a national candidate? Is it possible Mike Huckabee can get the nomination?

GINGRICH: Absolutely. He is -- he's going to go through what everybody else goes through. People are going to attack him, people are going to question him, he clearly has less knowledge about foreign policy, but his experience in health care, where he's a diabetic, and he lost 100 pounds and began exercising is personally a great story. He did great things in health care in Arkansas, his story on education reform. You know, he's a serious man, and he certainly fits, I think, with the other front runners and makes this a very, very wide open and very interesting race.

COLMES: If there's a primary in Georgia and Newt Gingrich is about to go vote, who does New Gingrich vote for in a Republican primary?

GINGRICH: I have many friends, and I'll vote for one of my many friends, Alan.

COLMES: That's not narrowed down enough for me, Newt.

HANNITY: Good answer.

(CROSSTALK)

COLMES: How about just initials. Initials would be fine.

GINGRICH: I knew you guys would hate that.

COLMES: You're not going any further, are you?

GINGRICH: No, not an inch.

COLMES: All right. Fred Thompson made a statement on the NIE report, and basically said the accuracy of the report can be received with skepticism. "He said the intelligence community has often underestimated the intentions of adversaries." Had it be favorable to the Bush policy on Iran, supporting all the war mongering, I think Republicans and conservatives would be praising the NIE; instead they're putting down the NIE. Isn't there a double standard here?

GINGRICH: Well, sure there is. There's a double standard on both sides. And all the liberals who hated the weapons of mass destruction report and talked about how bad the intelligence community are like this report and talk about how good it is.

I think there's some -- first of all, I think if you read the report carefully as I did this evening, it's pretty nuanced, it's pretty careful. It admits that Iranians are building centrifuges, it admits that they have a very large nuclear program, it admits they could get to a bomb, possibly as early as 2009, and it then says about one very specific program that they have reason to believe it was shut down in 2003. But when you read the whole report it's much more cautious and much more nuanced than the newspaper headlines.

HANNITY: Mr. Speaker, welcome back to the program.

Now I know you didn't get into the presidential race here, but you are in it, and you made some comments because Bill Clinton and one of his advisers went out there speaking about comments you had made about impeachment, and you said about Bill Clinton on C-SPAN: "He is fundamentally dishonest on a routine, regular basis. It's just his personality. He tells you the version that he needs to, to get through the week, and he just did it in Iowa over whether he used to be against the war." Explain.

GINGRICH: What is there to explain? I mean, I don't see -- how could any serious person look at -- and then President Clinton is one of the most charming people in politics, but how could any serious person look at his routine pattern of changing the facts to fit the current conversation, and not recognize that this is a person of limited connection to factual accuracy. That's not an attack on him; it's just a fact.

HANNITY: I agree with you, but let's think about -- that's a profound thing to say about somebody, that they are fatally flawed in their character. Now, does Hillary -- do you think she has the same characteristics?

GINGRICH: No, I think she's very different from Bill Clinton. But if you read the most recent Dick Morris column, it's just devastating on taking apart President Clinton's five-minute ad in favor of his wife, in which he goes and he takes each assertion, and he tells you, from his personal experiences as a consultant in the '80's what his understanding of the facts were, and it's almost -- it ranges from a very funny column to a very sad column as you read it.

And my point was what happened on C-SPAN we were doing the "Book Notes" program about various books I've written, and they showed a clip from the president speaking at his library in Little Rock last Friday night, and he made a series of allegations that were untrue. But they made perfect sense in terms of what he wants to believe. And my only point wasn't -- I wasn't trying to attack him, I said it looked like it was a perfectly Bill Clinton moment.

HANNITY: Look, I saw the interview, and you said it in a very measured tone. Obviously it wasn't personal. But for you it's a matter of fact here. I want to ask this, because at different times, you alarmed me at one point when you said that you thought there was an 80 percent chance that Hillary was going to be the next president, and then after pressure, Hannity pressure, I got you to reduce that. That was after the debate in Philadelphia.

COLMES: You reduced it because of Hannity, not because of your own thought process.

GINGRICH: That is baloney! That's baloney!

HANNITY: That's my version of Clinton. That's my -- all right. So you reduced that number to 50. Now we see the polls that Barack Obama is leading in Iowa, he's catching up in New Hampshire, it's a horse race in South Carolina -- look at that smile. Do you think she's still...

GINGRICH: I'm still back on your earlier assertion. I reduced my estimate of her likelihood of winning because she began to fail in her performance as a candidate, and she was clearly having problems keeping her campaign together.

COLMES: Not because of Sean Hannity?

HANNITY: You know, I'm just like Bill Clinton, I want to take credit for everything. But here's the question. Don't answer. Will you reduce the number? do you think her chances are reduced?

COLMES: Don't buckle to the pressure.

HANNITY: We'll get back to that question when we get back after the break, and then it's a new segment right here on "Hannity & Colmes," aimed at bringing you the news from the campaign trail like you've never seen before. We call it the Fastest Two Segments in Politics. So are the latest polls, are they good news for Hillary? Well, you'll have to stay tuned to find out. That's straight ahead.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D-NY), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thank you all, very much.

SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thank you!

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HANNITY: And we continue now with former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich. All right, Mr. Speaker, the big question -- 80 percent you thought Hillary Clinton was going to be president, and then down to 50 percent because of my great influence.

GINGRICH: No.

HANNITY: Where is it now?

GINGRICH: I'd say somewhere between 40 and 50, and I'll tell you, I was in Iowa yesterday, in Muscatine, and Cedar Rapids and Des Moines, and when I would talk to people -- folks don't realize, in the Democratic caucus, when you go into vote, if you vote for somebody who doesn't get 15 percent, you get to vote a second time, so if you're for Biden, or Dodd or somebody, Kucinich, and they don't get to 15 percent, then you get to recast your ballot.

When you ask the secondary question, I think John Edwards may come in first, Obama may come in second, and Senator Clinton may come in third in the Iowa caucus, and that would be a stunning evening.

HANNITY: Look, I think when people think of Newt Gingrich, they think of you as the architect of the revolution that brought the Republicans to power in the House of Representatives for the first time in 40 years, so strategically, tactically, you're the go-to guy. American Solutions which is -- I know where your passion is right now. You guys put out basically a polling on the web site, anybody has access to it, I've looked at it myself, you've drawn up this document this week. I want to ask a question based on the information you're providing everybody, what do the Republicans need to do to beat Hillary assuming she's the nominee? What do they need to focus on?

GINGRICH: Well, I think it's pretty clear. We introduced in Iowa yesterday the concept of the platform of the American people which anybody can get by going to Americansolutions.com, and I believe the Republicans have to do just basically three things -- be for very real change, represent clearly the values of the American people, which is represented clearly in the platform of the American people, and force Senator Clinton or the Democratic nominee, whoever it is, to choose between the values of the left and the values of the vast majority of Americans, and if they do that in a positive, issue-oriented way, I think that they have a very real chance of turning 2008 into a historic referendum.

HANNITY: I think -- we've gotten caught up, but they're still going to be comparing-and-contrasting ads. Hillary Clinton's record, or lack of access to her record, those are legitimate issues, her shifting positions on driver's licenses, that's legitimate.

Go ahead.

GINGRICH: It's all legitimate. But I'm going to give you a simple example. One of the most positive issues in America today is making English the official language of government. That's an 87 percent issue, majority of Democrats, majority of Republicans, majority of independents, majority of Hispanics, I think a clear choice is Senator Clinton for English as the official language of government, or, as she has been up until now, is she against it? You can go -- if you look at the platform of the American people, you can go through issue after issue after issue, shoe where there is a huge majority on one side, and the question for her, whether it's Senator Clinton, or Senator Obama or Senator Edwards, are they prepared to split with their left and side were the American people? Or do they want to stay with 10 or 12 percent of the country?

COLMES: Mr. Speaker, I vehemently disagree with your assessment that under the (INAUDIBLE), that there is on one side there's the left and the other side the majority of the American people. On issue after issue, depending upon the polls you're looking at, generally Americans side with Democrats on education, on health care, they want out of the war in Iraq, they don't like the so-called war on terror is being conducted. Issue after issue, it's not like the left on one side, the American people on the other. I say it's the other way around.

GINGRICH: Alan, you said Democrat, I said left. When you ask about values, this is a country which is -- for example, 70 percent of the country would abolish the death tax. The Democratic candidates would refuse to abolish it. By 49-41 the American people would abolish the capital gains tax. All three candidates actually vote to raise the capital gains tax.

I'm just saying, Alan, not Democrat/Republican, I think right now because of performance failure, the Republicans are in a deep hole, and you're going to get a whole series of questions where people are going to say Democrats, but when you go to values and you start asking about issue after issue, you're going to find a surprising share of the country, 84 percent of the country, would like to have the option of a one-page tax form and an optional flat tax.

(CROSSTALK)

COLMES: You're probably right on taxes, but on education, on health care, on the war, on a whole other range of issues, people tend to favor, you want to say Democrat, I'll say left, or vice versa. They favor...

GINGRICH: That's not true, Alan.

COLMES: Not the Republicans. You want the change. People want change. Change does not mean putting another Republican in office.

GINGRICH: We're talking past each other. If you pose Republican/Democrat right now, for a variety of reasons Democrat would score better. If you said who makes better peanut better sandwiches, a Democrat will score better. If you ask people about their values, the left is a very small minority.

HANNITY: You've never tried my peanut butter sandwich, Mr. Speaker. It's pretty...

COLMES: And that's where the left wins, because I make a better peanut butter sandwich. Thank you very much, Mr. Speaker, for being here with us.

Coming up, the Hucka-boom continues. We'll tell you why Mike Huckabee is celebrating more than a surge in Iowa, the fastest two segments in politics coming up. And then, you might remember the Folsom Street fare and the flyer that caused so much outrage. You're not going to believe what happened in broad daylight at that very fair. We're going to show you the tape. It is explicit, but it's coming up on "Hannity & Colmes."

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

COLMES: Despite recent news that Hillary Clinton is slipping in the polls, a new "L.A. Times"/Bloomberg polls reveals that she's still the front-runner, with 45 percent, with Obama and Edwards way behind with 21 and 11 percent. Fasten your seatbelts. The Fastest Two Segments in Politics begins right now. With us, from "U.S. News and World Report," Michael Barone, Republican strategist Leslie Sanchez, and co-author of "Common Ground," Democratic strategist, Bob Beckel.

What do you say about that, Leslie? You know, we keep hearing in some circles Hillary's not doing as well, oh, she's suffered, oh, these missteps. Nationally she continues to very well.

LESLIE SANCHEZ, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Nationally, she continues to be the front-runner, there is no doubt. Some people think that she peaked too early, but the reality is there are -- 50 percent of the population does not like her, and internally the Democrats know that she has such strong unfavorables or -- in terms of support that they wonder if she can really carry the water all the way to the end there.

COLMES: Bob Beckel, this is what Republicans keep saying, unfavorable, unfavorable, unfavorable, and then they may underestimate Hillary Clinton, and be very surprised come Election Day if she gets the nomination.

BOB BECKEL, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Yes, well, they're underestimating all the Democrats.

The point about this national poll is we're learning this when you look at the Republican side is they're meaningless right now. If you lose Iowa -- if she loses Iowa, you're going to see those numbers collapse a good 15 points nationally. So, you know, a lot is going to depend on what happens in Iowa and New Hampshire, the two states, by the way, which they were trying to diminish the importance of by moving all these other states forward. And guess what, we've made them two big monsters again.

COLMES: All right, let me put up on the screen now, I want to show you an ad for Tom Tancredo. He got into some controversy the last time he did an ad. Some say this one is even more extreme. Let's take a look.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ANNOUNCER: Muggers killed, children executed, the tactics of vicious Central American gangs now on U.S. soil. Pushing drugs, raping kids, destroying lives. Thanks to gutless politicians who refuse to defend our borders. One man dare says what should be done. Secure the borders. Deport those who don't belong. Make sure they don't come back.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COLMES: Michael Barone, is this the politics of fear, and does it work?

MICHAEL BARONE, "U.S. NEWS AND WORLD REPORT": Well, Tom Tancredo is referring to a problem that's real. There really are gangs of Latino immigrant kids. Some of them are illegal immigrants. But I think it's way over the top. He's trying to grab a lot of attention. What fascinates me is that this is really different from the persona of Tom Tancredo we've seen in the debates, where, for the most part, far from being fiery, he seems kind of mousy. So this is a single-digit candidate trying to attract attention.

(CROSSTALK)

COLMES: Here's another issue...

BARONE: I think there's a risk for Republicans for sounding like you're bigoted somehow on immigration. There are also gains to be made from it if you get the Democrats out on a lime in favor of...

(CROSSTALK)

COLMES: We're going to move forward because these are the fastest segments, so let me move forward.

Mitt Romney firing a landscaping company that worked for him simply because they continued to use illegal immigrants when he had warned them not to, but now look at him, he hammers Giuliani on this same issue. Take a look.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The mayor actually brought a suit to maintain its sanctuary city status, and the idea that they reported any illegal alien that committed a crime, how about the fact that people who are here illegally are violating the law. They didn't report everybody they found that was here illegally. And this just happens to be a difference between Mayor Giuliani and myself.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COLMES: And here's what "The Boston Globe" reported, though. It says the next morning on Thursday, at least two illegal immigrants stepped out of a hulking maroon pickup truck in the driveway of Romney's Belmont house, and then proceeded to spend critical several hours -- or several hours raking leaves, cleaning debris from Romney's tennis court and loading the refuse onto the truck. This a little problem, Leslie, for Mitt Romney, a little flip-flop there?

SANCHEZ: Not at all. There's nothing inconsistent here. The debate happened before "The Boston Club" decided to moonlight as Border Patrol agents and chase these individuals down. Some of them, they followed them to Guatemala and were asking them their immigration status. Once it was disclosed that there were undocumented, the governor called the owner of the small business, found out that it's not sincere what he was doing, and he fired the company. That is very consistent. He doesn't support companies that hire illegal immigrants.

HANNITY: Michael Barone, let me go to you. I know we spent a lot of time, a lot of focus in Iowa, but New Hampshire is going to come fast and furious. Let's go to the ABC/"Washington Post" poll, and it shows that Mitt Romney's still leading there with 37 percent, John McCain with 20, and 16 percent for Rudy Giuliani. You don't seem to have the big Huckabee factor yet in New Hampshire there. What does that mean?

BARONE: Well, one reason, Sean, is about 38 percent of Iowa caucus- goers identify themselves as evangelical Christians. Only 18 percent, less than half as many, so identify themself in New Hampshire.

Huckabee is about getting two-thirds of his support in Iowa from that group, and the question is whether he can expand beyond it, and that's going to be tested in New Hampshire.

HANNITY: Bob Beckel, let's go to "The Los Angeles Times"/Bloomberg poll, question about Hillary Clinton. There's been a lot of whining going on here, but the question goes in here. Has been fairly or unfairly criticized by Democratic opponents during the presidential primary campaign so far? Fairly criticized, 45; unfairly, only 39. Has there been too much whining on Hillary's part? She's a woman. The boys are ganging up against her. She's being swift boated. Both she and Bill have been making that claim.

BECKEL: Well, you can't have it both ways. I mean, you can't be the strongest and most experienced candidate in the world and then complain when somebody hits you. But look at that poll. That polls says 39 percent of the people think she's been unfairly treated, exactly the number she's got nationwide on average. So what it is her supporters saying she's being treated unfairly. The people who are not her supporters saying that she has not been treated unfairly.

HANNITY: All right, Bob, stay right there. There's lots more to come. More polls, more soundbites from the candidates.

And also coming up tonight, disturbing video taken at a Bay Area street fair that is best described as pornographic. So what does Nancy Pelosi think? Straight ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HANNITY: Last week Hillary Clinton held an event in South Carolina where she shared the stage with dozens of African-American ministers. After the debate, her campaign claimed to have the support of over 80 ministers on -- in the state. However, the Associated Press, well, they researched the endorsements and found some discrepancies.

Quote, "After being asked for names of the ministers, Clinton's campaign first released a partial list of 44 names. A day later, a list of 82 names was released. And that included one name that was repeated twice, several misspelled names, churches listed in the wrong city or with an incorrect name, and a dozen people listed without a church affiliation," end quote.

We continue now with Michael Barone, Leslie Sanchez, Bob Beckel.

Leslie, why -- why does it always seem that the Clintons -- why do I feel like there's Clinton fatigue already? The entire dishonesty? You know, Norman Hsu is indicted and now...

SANCHEZ: The list goes on and on. This just adds to the skepticism that both Democrats, independent conservatives and Republicans already have, but you have to look at the fact of the faith-based community, the African-American community are communities you do want to serve well. Especially in South Carolina there are 50 percent of the Democratic primary.

South Carolina could be a firewall if Iowa and New Hampshire do not go that well, so this is definitely something that could trigger downfall and lose support.

HANNITY: Well, 50 percent unfavorable rating, trustworthiness lowest among all Democratic candidates.

Michael Barone, let's head to the state of North Carolina, where John Edwards right now, in his own home state, is losing to Hillary Clinton, as you can see right there, 31, 26, Barack Obama 26. He can literally come in third in his home state. If you can't win your home state, why do I think you don't have a chance of becoming the nominee?

BARONE: Well, I think John Edwards is a long shot. They say, Sean, he's doing well in Iowa, but he's not doing well in New Hampshire, did not do well there four years ago. His North Carolina performance reminds me of what Mayor Edward Koch said about the late Congresswoman Bella Abzug said when she failed to carry her own precinct, or reporters asked him why, he said her neighbors know her.

He said, funny thing is...

BECKEL: Just one thing. If he wins Iowa, he'll win North Carolina.

HANNITY: Well, but, Bobby...

BECKEL: Sean, my point is all these polls, all these polls outside of Iowa and New Hampshire are meaningless right now, because we've got a slingshot out of these two states. And if somebody wins in those states unexpectedly or somebody loses, it means that you're going to get a huge momentum going into these other states.

HANNITY: All right. Then this question goes to Michael Barone, who knows every district, where it voted in every election past and present. Now, look, this is an entirely new environment, Michael Barone. But Bob Beckel does bring up a good point, and that is the issue of momentum following Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina.

What if Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani, the two leaders right now - - what if they were to lose those three states? Can they still take the nomination? And would we literally be reconfiguring the process and creating a new paradigm?

BARONE: The answer, I think, is that they can still win the nomination, Sean, but I think we don't really know the effects of these early contests. We're speculating.

We can find in the past where people have gotten bounces from Iowa and New Hampshire victories. We can find in the past where they didn't or where they were insufficient to propel a candidate that had formerly been behind ahead of his better-known rivals.

So I wouldn't rule out Rudy Giuliani, even with those early losses, though I think he needs to show some kind of strength there. I wouldn't rule out Hillary Clinton.

HANNITY: Leslie, let me ask you about the Hucka-boom, as everyone's calling it. And this is a poll, actually a national poll, Scott Rasmussen actually has him in the lead of all the candidates nationwide. It is not consistent with all the other polls that show Rudy ahead. Your thoughts?

SANCHEZ: No, and I talked to several Republican pollsters about that. There was a little bit of shock and awe there, as well. I think, overall the consensus is that they're suspect of it, and we're going to wait and see what some other polls -- any other polls are consistent with theirs.

(CROSSTALK)

BECKEL: It's another -- it's another indication of why national polls at this stage in the game in the process don't mean that much. It also says -- we got that poll -- how weak the other Republican candidates are.

COLMES: That's a good point. By the way, let me -- let me show you what Edwards is. Let's more forward here. Edwards has -- and he's presenting himself as different than the other Democratic candidates, as a populist. And here's the latest ad he's putting out.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOHN EDWARDS (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The system is corrupt. And it's rigged. And it's rigged against you.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Finally, someone telling the truth.

EDWARDS: And we can say as long as we get Democrats in, everything's going to be OK. It's a lie. It is not the truth. Do you really believe if we replace a crowd of corporate Republicans with a crowd of corporate Democrats that anything meaningful is going to change?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COLMES: Bob Beckel, what about that message, that it's not just about getting a Democrat, it's about getting a non-corporate, not another typical Democrat? Is that a good message for John Edwards?

BECKEL: It's not a bad one. By the way, this guy takes the longest time to say the word "lie" that I've ever heard in a politician.

But look, he's making a point here. It's clear who he's pointing his fingers at. He's pointing at the Clinton people, going back to the '90s when Clinton got a lot of money from corporate entities. And she has now, too.

It's very -- it's not very subtle, but it's not a bad message in certain parts of New Hampshire. It's not bad. They're very strongly independent.

COLMES: Brand new poll out. This is a Marist poll. This confirms another poll we put up earlier tonight. But this is just New Hampshire. Clinton 37, Obama 23, Edwards 18, Michael Barone. Good news for, if that's true, for Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire.

BARONE: That's pretty good news, and it's also an ABC/Washington Post poll revealed this afternoon, which was 35 Clinton, 26 Obama. Neither of the Clinton and Obama numbers are statistically different from those in the Marist poll, but the Marist shows a wider margin; only nine points in the ABC/Washington Post poll.

I think -- I think Obama has the capacity to be competitive in New Hampshire. Obviously, that would probably be increased if he wins -- if he wins in Iowa or achieves a big positive result like that.

So Hillary's leading. She's got a good organization in New Hampshire, but Obama is not too far behind.

COLMES: And as Bob said, what happens in Iowa could influence the next states including New Hampshire. We thank you all very much...

SANCHEZ: Absolutely.

COLMES: ... for being with us tonight. Thank you all so much.

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