 | ||
 | Elian Gonzalez saga could haunt Obama | |
| Gitmo trial looms in election homestretch | |
| Back at Senate, Clinton treated like royal | |
| GOP favoritism in new IG report | |
| How Hoyer got the deal done | |
| LA Times/Bloomberg Poll: Obama +12 | |
| IN Polls: Prez Race Even, Gov Race Close | |
| McCain's Psychological Benefits | |
| VP Watch: Michigan Numbers | |
| The Charm Offensive Continues |
| A Transportation Stimulus | |
| McCain's Speech in Santa Barbara | |
| A Serious Energy Policy for Our Future | |
| The Imitators | |
| 'Victims' of Cut-Rate Loans |
|
November 21, 2007
Some Thanksgiving For Everyone
By Reid WilsonJust over six weeks from today, frigid Iowans will huddle together for warmth in crowded homes, church basements and school gyms to allocate the first delegates of this year's presidential race. Later this week, caucus-goers and primary voters in early states will be allowed one of the last respites of the campaign as candidates pause for Thanksgiving.
The break will last little longer than Turkey Day itself, but it provides candidates a moment to pause and give thanks for events that put them in good position to win their party's nomination.
Barack Obama will give thanks to Bob Novak on Thursday. The conservative columnist's assertion over the weekend that Hillary Clinton's campaign has unearthed dirt on the freshman senator re-enforced the concept that Obama is the candidate with whom Clinton is most concerned. The bizarre multiple back-and-forths the two camps engaged in on Saturday, charging and counter-charging that the other was engaged in politics as usual, produced no clear winner, but Beltway pundits are now on notice: If anyone attacks Obama, his campaign will come out swinging, and hard.
Clinton, meanwhile, is giving thanks for John Edwards. After a strong performance in the Democratic debate in Philadelphia, many thought Edwards' criticism of the front-runner was better than Obama's. A three-way race, including Edwards and Obama, is much better for Clinton than if she is faced with a head-to-head with the better-funded Obama.
Edwards' shots in Philadelphia, coupled with Clinton's weak performance, also allowed her to get back on track in a debate last week in Las Vegas, purportedly the most-watched clash of the primary season. During that debate, and with a very sympathetic crowd, Clinton took shots at Edwards and Obama, showing teeth that might not have come out until the general election had Edwards not put her on the defensive at Drexel University.
The rest of the field has little for which to be thankful. Despite decent fundraising performances, Bill Richardson remains uninspired in debates. Dennis Kucinich and Mike Gravel are excluded on a more regular basis. Only Joe Biden can find good news, as the national media repeatedly asks why he isn't a bigger factor in the race. In the end, that positive press leaves an opening for Biden, whether as a vice president or as a senior statesman. Sometimes even a loss can turn into a win.
On the Republican side, Mike Huckabee is grateful to everyone in Iowa who has suddenly discovered his candidacy. No one has risen faster - Huckabee trails only Mitt Romney in the state, and in one poll by just two points - with less money in the bank. The national media is currently in love with the former Arkansas governor, and coming just weeks before the caucuses, now is a great time to be on the way up. Everyone will argue that the race breaks late, but at some point identifying that break becomes key. Huckabee hopes his current good fortune is the way the Iowa GOP race is going to break. For now, he's giving thanks just for having the shot.
Mitt Romney, ironically, should also be thankful for Huckabee. Consider the conventional wisdom: That Mitt Romney will win Iowa. The expectation will change the storyline leaving the state, and many in the media will focus on the second and third place finishers. If Huckabee overtakes Romney in polls, that conventional wisdom changes. Romney will undergo a week or so of stories suggesting his campaign is all but over. That is, until his superior bank account and organization kicks in. Romney is likely to win Iowa, but if Huckabee helps more people question that conclusion, a Romney win suddenly becomes much more valuable.
Despite the initial buzz surrounding his campaign, Fred Thompson has not had much to be happy about lately. His national poll numbers, which peaked at 23.5% in early September in the RCP National Average, have since sunk to 15.5%, just barely ahead of John McCain and Romney. In fact, the latest InTrade price shows contracts betting Ron Paul will be the GOP nominee are more expensive - meaning bettors think the scenario is more likely - than contracts choosing Thompson.
But Thompson has to be ecstatic about winning backing from National Right to Life. The support boosts him among conservatives and deprives others of the unquestioned pro-life mantle. Huckabee questioned Thompson's abortion record on Fox News Sunday this weekend, but if he runs into that criticism again, Thompson's comeback has been pretty easy: He's won the key endorsement. That's enough to raise a glass to on Thursday.
John McCain, meanwhile, has to thank Hillary Clinton. Clinton leads each of the top four Republican front-runners, but her lead over McCain is the smallest, at just two points in the latest RCP Poll Average. In fact, at least a few polls of late have shown him leading. Every Republican is trying to make the argument that they are the most electable candidate. Down in the money race, down in the polls, McCain's argument is the strongest, borne out by public opinion surveys.
With Romney, Huckabee, Thompson and McCain all firmly planted on his right, Rudy Giuliani is pleased that all the candidates are still in the race. Giuliani has not only staked out a position held by a significant minority of the GOP base - socially moderate - he has also, for the most part, successfully avoided the wrath of conservatives by making the right noises on court appointments. That's prevented the base from coalescing around an alternative, and it means Giuliani remains at the top of the pack in a race he would not otherwise win.
Unlike the rest of the Democratic field, the three Republican House members seeking the nomination are winning surprising attention of their own. Paul's jaw-dropping fundraising and unique position in the GOP field, along with Tom Tancredo's illegal immigration niche and his new dramatic television spot are ensuring that the debates, and the field, remain lively. Even Duncan Hunter, former chair of the House Armed Services Committee, finds himself in regular television demand. The three will not win the Republican nomination, but they can be grateful for their experiences, which has raised all of their profiles.
The break for Thanksgiving will be brief. But just weeks before the voters actually cast their ballots, the day off will be appreciated. And just as stores will lure shoppers with big sales and lots of advertising, candidates will up their appearances and television buys as the Holiday season approaches. Take a breath on Thursday. It will be the last anyone gets until Christmas.
