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November 30, 2007

Obama in the Lead in Iowa

Hannity & Colmes

COLMES: Check in with the Hawkeye State. A new ARG poll shows Obama taking the lead for the first time at 27 percent, while Hillary falls behind with 25 percent of the vote. And on the Republican side, Romney and Huckabee in a virtual tie at 28 percent, 27 percent respectively.

Meanwhile, the Granite State, there things remain status quo on both sides. For the Democrats, Hillary maintains a commanding lead with 30 percent and Obama in second with 25 percent. Romney up -- is up for Republicans at 29 percent, McCain in second with 21 percent, followed by Giuliani with 19 percent.

Will there be more changes in the weeks leading up to the primaries, or will clear frontrunners emerge?

Joining us is now, Republican pollster Kellyanne Conway, and Democratic strategist Tanya Acker.

Do you see any political fallout from what happened today in New Hampshire?

KELLYANNE CONWAY, REPUBLICAN POLLSTER: There will be very little.

COLMES: Meaning less in terms of...

CONWAY: You don't think that the hostage takeover was a plant? I'm just kidding, Alan.

COLMES: I know. I saw the wink in your eye. I'm sure you're kidding about this.

CONWAY: I was kidding. Everybody's glad everyone's safe.

But now, what you do learn from all these polls is that these races are very fluid, and particularly on the Republican side. And that means many voters are going to subscribe to this -- the big mo. You can't poll momentum. You can't buy it in an ad, but it takes on a life of its own.

And I think whoever wins in Iowa, if people don't meet certain expectations, it can be very difficult for them to recover.

COLMES: Listen, we don't know who's going to win in Iowa. Obama is doing very well in Iowa.

TANYA ACKER, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: He is.

COLMES: And Hillary may not win Iowa, as everybody thought she might, but that doesn't mean her candidacy is in jeopardy.

ACKER: Absolutely not. I mean, I think that the important thing to remember here is that, one, Hillary emerged as the clear front-runner so early on because she had the machine. She had the name recognition. A Democrat really, really like her husband, for very, very good reason, but now...

HANNITY: Oh, come on. Stop it.

COLMES: Let her speak. Go ahead. Go ahead.

ACKER: As the race gets tighter, I think people are delving a little deeper into some of the issues.

And I've got to say, I think something's going to happen. I think that there's a surprise that we haven't seen. I think that when you hear - - when you listen to somebody like Chuck Hagel come out as stridently as he did against this administration and you've got him meeting with Bloomberg and Bloomberg meeting with...

COLMES: And Obama meeting with Bloomberg.

ACKER: I think that there's something -- something's going to happen.

COLMES: By the way, if you look, Kellyanne, further at the ARG poll, you find out that 64 percent of American voters say Bush has abused his power as president. You have 34 percent say abuse has rised to the level of impeachable offenses and he should be impeached.

CONWAY: Is he running again? Running?

(CROSSTALK)

COLMES: My question, if you actually listen long enough to hear the question, which is that's got to hurt whoever the Republican candidate is going to be.

CONWAY: Well, in May -- please explain to me again why Hillary Clinton has 120 percent name I.D. in Iowa and New Hampshire and only 25 percent of the vote and 30 percent of the vote?

COLMES: Because there are lots of very good potent candidates who the people are into.

CONWAY: For the pro-Hillary people you've got to start feeling nervous out there, because she's got nowhere to go. She's not going to be warm and accessible tomorrow. People aren't going to talk tomorrow.

I think the most telling polling result in all of these surveys that FOX shared with us today is that, to both Republican and primary -- Democratic, Republican primary voters, trust was the most important attribute. Even have experience. Hillary is less trusted than most of the Democratic candidates.

HANNITY: It goes to her unfavorable rate which remains at 50...

CONWAY: Of course. At 45 percent.

HANNITY: Forty-five to 50 percent nationwide. And when you ask questions about whether or not she'd make decisions for political expediency, the answer is yes here.

She's got a bigger problem, Tanya. It's not just she's down 4 in Iowa. A recent poll. It shows that Barack Obama is now within 2 in South Carolina. So if he wins Iowa and she doesn't perform as well in New Hampshire and he wins South Carolina, Barack Obama, you know, this is no longer a coronation for her.

ACKER: Absolutely. It's absolutely not a coronation. I mean, look, Barack is doing really, really well. The race is tightening. Edwards is tightening. He's closing in on Barack. I think that what this shows is that it's not a fate accomplit for Hillary. She will not be crowned the nominee. I think that she's got somewhere...

HANNITY: I want her to be your nominee.

ACKER: Absolutely.

HANNITY: I want Hillary to win. Let me go on the record.

(CROSSTALK)

HANNITY: Right now she's losing -- wait a minute. A Zogby poll just came out. She's losing to five Republicans. Five of them. She's losing to Rudy, Romney, Fred Thompson, Mike Huckabee, and John McCain. She's losing head to head against all of them.

ACKER: Here's the thing. Here's the thing. She's got -- I'll admit she's got some fairly high unfavorables, but remember she's been in the public eye for a very long time.

HANNITY: You'll admit it. OK.

CONWAY: That's why she has unfavorables, sweetie. Everybody knows her.

ACKER: And Rudy Giuliani -- Rudy Giuliani, as we find out more about the guy...

HANNITY: All right. Stop the Rudy bashing. Let me ask Kellyanne a question here.

We've got an interesting dynamic emerging in Iowa with Mike Huckabee now. He's leading in New Hampshire by -- I'm sorry, in Iowa by two points. When we go to New Hampshire, it's Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani second, Huckabee third. And then Giuliani is winning in South Carolina in this poll. Literally, you've got three different guys winning here. It's pretty amazing for the Republicans.

CONWAY: And look, the Republican Party has long been the royalist party. They always nominate the next in line. Here, the line is very crowded. It's a horizontal line. It's true competition, and we should welcome it.

The other problem, the reason that I think Democrats are fighting for Chuck Hagel and Mike Bloomberg and the man in the moon and Mickey Mouse, is...

HANNITY: They want help.

CONWAY: ... because they know Hillary Clinton may get 43 percent but...

HANNITY: Let me ask you one last question. I know you're a big Fred Thompson supporter. He had a good night the other night in the debate. Is he going to, you know -- how do you think he's going to fare?

CONWAY: Well, he's still No. 2 in the national polls behind Rudy, and in Iowa he's No. 3, and in South Carolina he's been holding steady. In fact, he went up three in Iowa. He's not playing well in New Hampshire, but we never really had much of a campaign there, compared to the other two places.

I think nobody's going to drop out because of exactly what you just said. There's three different front-runners and...

COLMES: And Rudy had a little problem with what came out about his expenses being hidden.

(CROSSTALK)

COLMES: You're looking to him for aid and comfort. You know he's got a problem with it.

HANNITY: By the way, when is Hillary going to release her documents so we can have the same scrutiny, Alan? You should demand...

(CROSSTALK)

COLMES: You should look at Rudy Giuliani's expenses being hidden in departments (UNINTELLIGIBLE) having to do with escorting his mistress.

HANNITY: ... stuck it in his pants.

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