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Finally, Nevada Finds Its Moment

When New Hampshire Secretary of State Bill Gardner announced last week that his state would hold its traditional first in the nation primary on January 8, virtually audible sighs of relief came from campaigns that, until then, had been shockingly unsure of the calendar under which they would have to compete for their party's presidential nominations. And while Gardner's move was expected, simply seeing an official order of states must have been a relief.

But the group with the biggest reason to celebrate was far away from Gardner's offices in Concord, happily situated just a few miles from the glittering lights of America's best-known playground for adults. Long ignored by the national media and their party's presidential candidates in spite of their special status, Nevada Democrats finally found a reason to be happy: Their caucuses are now perfectly situated to have a dramatic impact on the nominating contest.

Because of the compressed nature of the primary calendar, candidates of both parties will have just five days to react and adjust between the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary. After the primary, any Republican challengers left standing will have an additional week to square off before Michigan voters head to the polls. Four days later, Republicans in the Silver State and in South Carolina will make their preference known.

On the Democratic side of the aisle, though, the situation is much different. Following the lead of Senator Barack Obama, most of the party's candidates pulled out of Michigan's contest, in order, they said, to honor a pledge to the four DNC-sanctioned early states. Just Hillary Clinton and Mike Gravel remain on the ballot there, making the primary certain to be overshadowed by the state's GOP contest.

Instead, for eleven days after New Hampshire polls close, surviving Democratic candidates will focus their attentions on Nevada, which will, for the first time, hold caucuses before the party's nominee is evident. The next contest, South Carolina's Democratic primary, will be held ten days after Nevadans caucus.

Nevada's position of prominence has been in doubt ever since the DNC's Rules and Bylaws Committee gave the state permission to hold the caucuses before February 5, when any state may hold its contest on any day. The move was designed to involve the state's large and politically influential Hispanic population. Coupled with an early South Carolina primary, where a disproportionately large number of Democratic primary voters are African American, the committee's goal was to involve a more diverse crowd of Democrats, instead of relying on Iowa and New Hampshire, both states where whites make up more than 95% of the population.

Originally, the state was slated to caucus just after Iowa. But thanks to shenanigans in Michigan, which moved its primary to January 15, and a state law in New Hampshire preventing the primary from going after any other like contests, both states jumped ahead of Nevada's January 19 date.

And despite its prominent position, Democratic candidates have all but ignored Nevada. A CNN-sponsored debate at UNLV two weeks ago was one of just a few such events focused there, and candidates have made far fewer trips than to other states; Governor Bill Richardson had taken 11 trips to Nevada before the debate, more than any other candidate. Still, that number is less than half the number of trips he's taken to both Iowa and New Hampshire.

Clinton had been to Nevada just five times, fewer than John Edwards' eight trips and Obama's nine. By contrast, she had taken 25 trips to Iowa to Edwards' 42 visits and Obama's 35 excursions, according to statistics compiled by The Hotline.

Still, should a frontrunner like Clinton, Obama or Edwards stumble in Iowa or New Hampshire, Nevada will be the next - and perhaps last - chance to right their ships. A miscue such as Howard Dean's infamous scream speech might not be fixed in the five days between the first two contests. But because all three Democratic front-runners - especially Clinton and Obama - are awash in cash, eleven days of paid media provides more than enough time to solve any outstanding issues.

The state's large Hispanic population may also present an opportunity to Richardson, the lone Hispanic in the race, and a problem for top-tier candidates who hope for a good performance. Running fourth in most early states and having raised impressive amounts of money, Richardson could survive to outperform a top-tier candidate, breathing at least some life into his bid. Falling behind the governor, though, could be fatal to whichever campaign finds themselves in that position.

But Richardson is the only second-tier candidate who could benefit from the state's unique political culture. Democrats got a bargain when they selected the state - not only did they involve more Hispanic voters, but they picked a place where Unions still play a crucial role. And because most major unions have lined up behind Clinton, Edwards and Obama, other candidates may find themselves left without a vehicle for their message. The state's crown jewel, the massive Culinary Workers union that represents employees on the Vegas Strip, has yet to announce its backing.

On the GOP side, Nevada remains unimportant and painfully ignored. Coming four days after Michigan, where every candidate will compete, hurts. But South Carolina will take any and all attention away from Nevada, operatives say. The Palmetto GOP will hold their contest on the same day, the first Southern state to hold a contest, and the national media's attention will focus heavily there.

But for Democrats, the eleven days between New Hampshire and Nevada will provide a critical window for campaigns to make adjustments necessary to carry on their campaigns. If one candidate sweeps the first two contests and proves unbeatable in Nevada, it may be the last adjustments the others are able to make.

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Related Topics: election 2008 | nevada |

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