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Tsongas Wins, But GOP Sees Hope In Loss

Democrat Niki Tsongas, widow of the late Senator and presidential candidate Paul Tsongas, won election Tuesday night to fill the unexpired term of Congressman Marty Meehan in a closer than expected race that left some Republicans hopeful for their party's chances in 2008.

With 100% of precincts reporting, Tsongas led farmer and businessman Jim Ogonowski, a Republican, and three minor party candidates with 51%. Ogonowski scored 45% in defeat.

Still, said national Republicans, Ogonowski drew a blueprint for the party's Congressional candidates to follow next year, as he sought to tie Tsongas to the Washington status quo. "For any Republican challenger, they're running against Washington," said one GOP strategist who will work on several House races next year. "Now every Republican challenger can go out there and just point his finger at Washington and say, 'That place sucks. That is not what you and I are about.'"

Tsongas began the campaign with much higher name recognition than any candidate, Democrat or Republican, running. While her late husband held the seat in the 1970s, his name is plastered around the district, including on the Tsongas Arena, in Lowell, the district's biggest city. She raised more than $2.1 million through Sept. 30, FEC reports show, outspending Ogonowski by more than four-to-one.

Still, said Tim Sahd, editor of House Race Hotline, Ogonowski was able to keep up. "Early on, Ogonowski was able to define Tsongas as the incumbent, and himself as the underdog challenger. That got him close, but it wasn't enough," Sahd said. "Voters needed a reason in this very Democratic district to throw out a Democrat, and they didn't get one."

After one poll showed Ogonowski trailing by just ten points, in early September, Washington Democrats seemed to sense trouble. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Massachusetts Sen. Ted Kennedy and former President Bill Clinton all held rallies for Tsongas in the waning days of the campaign, while EMILY's List, the influential Washington group that backs pro-chocie women, spent about $125,000 in radio ads.

Institutional support from big-name Democrats was likely what helped Tsongas over the finish line. On the other hand, Tsongas' association with Washington Democrats is what got her in trouble in the first place. "Voters felt like she wasn't the change candidate, and I think the more we pushed that mantra, the better off we were," said Republican pollster Rob Autry, who handled polling for Ogonowski.

The election, many said, showed that once Republicans lost control of Congress, they lost a major albatross around their neck. "It was evident before the special election in public disapproval of Congress, but Ogonowski proved that an insurgent, outsider campaign can put a scare in an establishment Democrat," Sahd said.

The Republican strategist sees something of a moral victory in larger terms for his party. Polls consistently show that a depressed Republican base is less willing to turn out because of disappointment with their party over spending. "Because we don't have the majority, all that spending, that's not our fault anymore," he said. "To be able to run a race against Washington, we haven't been able to run that race for 14 years."

The National Republican Congressional Committee saw the defeat in the same positive light. "Jim Ogonowski sent a message to the Washington establishment and the Democratic Party that will reverberate throughout next year's election. Democrats have officially forfeited the mantle of change," NRCC chairman Tom Cole said in a statement.

But the GOP isn't home yet. Democrats won, Autry said, for some of the same reasons the party was successful last year. "They kind of reverted back to their strategy in 2006, which was to tie the Republican to [President] Bush and Iraq and drive that message," he said. "Unfortunately for us, that still has some resonance."

"At the end of the day, Republicans are responsible for the issues people are most upset about," said Democratic consultant Mark Mellman, citing the war, among other issues. By the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee's reckoning, the victory was a continuation of the wave that brought them to power last year. "Massachusetts voters sent a clear message, they support candidates who fight for their values to provide children's health care and work to end the war in Iraq," said DCCC chairman Chris Van Hollen in a statement.

Mellman pointed out that the district gave Tsongas virtually the same percentage as it did to Gov. Deval Patrick in 2006. Patrick won the district with 50.5%, the narrowest margin of any in the state. "Basically, Republicans and Democrats voted the same way they voted for governor" last year, he said, noting that 2006, "nationally, was a very good situation for Democrats."

If the narrow margin, in a district that Sen. John Kerry carried by 17 points in 2004, were reversed, Democrats would have faced serious questions about their status as agents of change. "They had to hold onto this seat, at all costs," the Republican strategist said.

Despite the loss, Republicans remained hopeful that the race indicates 2008 will not be as miserable for the party as many think. "To me, this is really encouraging," the Republican strategist said.

"There's some good things Republicans can take away from this," Autry said. "Despite the dire predictions of doom and gloom, what this campaign has shown is that we can run effective candidates, and when we have the right candidate and the right message, we can compete."

For Democrats, Autry said, the message is equally clear. "The strategy that supposedly worked well in 2006, I don't think is going to be a recipe for success in 2008." Still, he admitted, "unfortunately there are no moral victories in politics, and certainly not in campaigns."

Tsongas could be sworn in as early as today, the Lowell Sun reported.

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