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October 19, 2007

Jindal Likely To Take Seat For GOP

By Reid Wilson

As Louisiana voters prepare to head to the polls tomorrow, four candidates will be holding their breath in anticipation of a close race. But while most close races mean at least two candidates have a chance at emerging the winner, the only question remaining in the race for Louisiana governor is not whether Rep. Bobby Jindal will lead the first round of voting, but whether he will cross the 50% mark needed to avoid a runoff.

Jindal has constantly led Democrats State Sen. Walter Boasso and PSC Commissioner Foster Campbell and businessman John Georges, an independent, by seemingly insurmountable margins of thirty, even forty points. But after 2003, when Jindal led after the first round of voting only to lose narrowly to Democrat Kathleen Blanco, he is putting every effort into winning outright and avoiding a runoff.

His three opponents, many agree, can only depend on advertisements aimed at cutting into Jindal's support, as well as a huge African American turnout, to force Jindal to continue his campaign into November, when the runoff would occur.

Jindal finds himself in a position any politician would envy. After his narrow loss in 2003 and his subsequent election to Congress, Jindal has been campaigning virtually non-stop for years. When Blanco's approval rating tanked after her handling of Hurricane Katrina, polls showed Jindal beating her handily in a rematch. "A lot of [Jindal's lead] was sort of buyer's remorse in the last governor's race," said an independent political advisor who asked not to be named.

When Blanco announced she would not run again, Jindal was left without an opponent, and without the prospect of any serious opposition. "Bobby Jindal has been able to run this campaign as if he were the incumbent," said political analyst Elliott Stonecipher.

In Louisiana, African American voters overwhelmingly choose Democrats, largely canceling out registered Republicans. The battleground, say longtime political observers, are over white Democrats and independents. "There are many Democrats who are, quote, Democrats in name, but they vote Republican," said Greg Rigamer, the state's top targeting expert who has worked for both parties and works for Jindal this year.

After Katrina, Democrats took a huge hit. Rigamer estimates that the party could lose as many as 40,000 fewer African American voters. Stonecipher compared the loss to "loosing limbs." The state's political center has shifted away from New Orleans, east toward Baton Rouge and Lafayette, and north toward Shreveport.

Some suspect that a big-name Democrat, perhaps former Sen. John Breaux or Lieutenant Gov. Mitch Landrieu, could have overcome that loss. But Breaux declined to mount a legal challenge to questions about his residency, and Landrieu was weakened after he lost a bid for mayor of New Orleans in 2006.

That left a party with few choices. "They don't have a strong bench, and they weren't able to get a candidate with strong ties to the Democratic base," said one Louisiana Democratic operative. Boasso, who is independently wealthy, was a Republican until last year. "There's only one candidate that was a Democrat before qualifying," the operative said.

Given the imminent takeover of the governorship by a Republican, it would seem likely that Senator Mary Landrieu, a Democrat facing re-election next year, would have a difficult time winning. But strategists on both sides say Landrieu is in good position, thanks to Louisiana's one-of-a-kind political climate.

That Boasso switched parties is not uncommon for Louisiana, nor is it that many registered Democrats would not think twice about voting for a Republican. The state's primary system is unique: The preliminary round of voting includes candidates from all parties, and the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, advance, provided none makes it past 50%.

The process, according to political watchers in the state, means voters form fewer allegiances to parties and more connections to individual candidates. "It's degraded the party connection that you see in other states," said the Democratic operative. That means candidates cannot rely on a base vote, like they would in other states. "What you see is that voters are really voting personality and voting the people," the independent professional said.

"There's no great reverence for the party," Rigamer said. That lack of allegiance extends to political professionals as well. Rigamer himself worked for Landrieu in 2002, Blanco in 2003, Republican Sen. David Vitter in 2004 and, now, for Jindal.

But because fewer voters are tied to a party, a statewide wave in favor of one party or another has yet to emerge. Landrieu won her first election in 1996, one year after Republican Governor Mike Foster took 64% of the vote. The year after Blanco, the Democrat, won election, Republican Vitter avoided a runoff.

Landrieu faced a difficult race in 2002, when she was forced into a runoff. This year, she is making preparations for another tough race. Through the third quarter, she retained more than $3.3 million cash on hand, a much better position than the one in which she found herself after the third quarter of 2001. In 2008, she will likely face State Treasurer John Kennedy, who is running unopposed this year for re-election.

Still, Landrieu may have reason for optimism. Louisiana sources say she has built a smart, effective turnout operation, and late polls suggest Jindal may not be in the strong position he once was. A poll in August showed him climbing to 63%. A week later, a poll for Georges pegged the front-runner at 54%. But the latest poll, conducted by Southeastern Louisiana University, showed Jindal at 46%, below the 50% threshold.

The poll, though, showed 29% of voters were undecided, while Jindal attracted 18% of the African American vote - more than any candidate except Boasso, at 22%. Unless the vast majority of undecided voters break against the Republican, Jindal looks likely to win the governor's mansion outright.

If he does, though, political pundits should avoid reading anything into it, except as the natural conclusion of a perfectly positioned campaign.

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