 | ||
 | New group to attack Hillary from left | |
| Fred's home-state bundler oversaw fined GOP | |
| Blue Dogs refuse to pony up for DCCC | |
| Dems have upper hand on national security | |
| Levin fires new salvo in primary war | |
| Ad-Hoc Liberal Dem Group Plans to Mobilize Against Hillary | |
| New Cook Poll | |
| The PM Line | |
| Candidate Reax to Southwick's Confirmation | |
| Drudge vs. The New Republic |
| Can the War on Terror Be Won? | |
| Confronting the Islamo-Fascists | |
| McCain-Feingold Strikes Campus | |
| Obama Voters at the Crossroads | |
| Food Is Not Enough |
| The Cost of HillaryCare | |
| How Hillary Revived the GOP | |
| Romney's Religious Dilemma | |
| Return of the Chicken Hawks |
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October 24, 2007
GOP Narrows Its Scope
By Reid WilsonBack to something we touched on briefly in Morning Thoughts: How are campaigns deciding where to put their resources? Recent trends and FEC filings show a pretty clear-cut picture, and while no campaign will admit to pulling out of an important primary state, some candidates are barely investing in what they think would be a lost cause for them.
The Des Moines Register has an important breakdown of how campaigns are spending their time and money in Iowa these days. Mitt Romney, polling first with 26.3% in the latest RCP Iowa Average, 11 points higher than Fred Thompson and 12.5 points higher than Mike Huckabee, has clearly invested the most in the state. He has by far the most staff, 67 (next highest number: Thompson and Rudy Giuliani, with 12 each) has run the only television ads, and has won the most state legislator endorsements, at 15.
Other campaigns, it appears, have all but ceded Iowa to Romney. Yes, as John McIntyre wrote this weekend, Huckabee has a shot at winning Iowa. But the caucuses take organization, and with 67 staffers versus just eight, Romney can outwork the Huckabee campaign many times over. And if, as they say, Rudy Giuliani is not giving up on the state, why would he stay away for more than two months, before returning last week? A Thompson adviser told Politics Nation last week that the campaign will make a serious push for Iowa, but none has emerged thus far.
For the GOP, the real first fight will come in New Hampshire. Romney leads in the state by just 4.2 points, according to the latest RCP New Hampshire Average. Romney's lead was much bigger, though Giuliani has pulled closer over the end of the summer. As in 2004, John McCain will make a strong push in the Granite State -- he's visited a total of 17 times, more than any candidate save Romney, at 28, according to numbers compiled by The Hotline.
Meanwhile, writes The Hill, Thompson is again largely absent from New Hampshire. He will go so far, a source says, as to send a surrogate to Concord to file candidacy papers for him. In a state where candidates file, then offer a speech and get pages of free media, surrogate campaigning is frowned upon, to say the least. State GOP chair Fergus Cullen offers this shot: "We would welcome him here to start campaigning any day now."
After New Hampshire holds its primary, Michigan is next in line, slated to hold its primary on January 15. The latest RCP Michigan Average has Romney up 5.2% over Giuliani, though the two latest polls show Giuliani leading narrowly -- and an Insider Advantage Poll has the four top-running candidates within five points of each other. Our bet: If Romney or Giuliani's campaigns decide they might lose New Hampshire, watch for a surge of advertisements in Michigan to prevent any more blood loss. If either, or both, decide to dump money into the Wolverine State, will Thompson be able to spend here as well?
Thompson's first real shot at a victory looks like it will come in South Carolina, where he trails Giuliani by just 0.2 points in the latest RCP South Carolina Average. Romney, who had trouble getting traction in the Palmetto State over the first eight months or so of the campaign, goes up with a new ad in the state today, and has recently signaled he will invest heavily in the state, which could spell trouble for Thompson and Giuliani.
Giuliani and Romney will spend resources in the Palmetto State, and Thompson, it seems, is banking on being "the" Southern candidate. Whether or not he can actually win a state at all, much less the nomination, will likely depend on how he does in the first Southern state to cast its ballots.
Romney will likely win Iowa. Romney, Giuliani or McCain will likely win New Hampshire. Romney and Giuliani have leads in Michigan that would be expensive to beat. And Thompson, Romney and Giuliani are all in the hunt in South Carolina. Campaigns have narrowed their focuses to states they can win. Now, it seems, whichever candidate is given the snowball mantle first can roll through February 5th and on to the nomination. Unlike the Democratic field, this one is anyone's ballgame.
