SEND TO A FRIEND

|

PRINT ARTICLE

|

GOP Looks for the Next Michael Flanagan

In 1994, as Democrats were going down to the Republican wave that washed over the country, Michael Flanagan provided perhaps the most surprising upset of the evening. Flanagan, a Republican, beat eighteen-term Democratic Rep. Dan Rostenkowski, on Chicago's north side, in a district where former President George H.W. Bush had won just 33% two years before. Flanagan was a marked man from the beginning, and two years after arriving in Washington, Democrat Rod Blagojevich beat him nearly two-to-one.

In 2006, Democrats benefited from a national wave, and in some districts, the party won without expecting to. This year, Republicans are licking their chops, waiting to take on members they think could be the next Michael Flanagan.

Rep. Nancy Boyda, of Kansas, anti-war and relatively liberal, donated $300,000 to her own campaign in 2004 and spent an impressive $1.1 million, only narrowly losing the fundraising battle to then-Rep. Jim Ryun. Still, Ryun cruised, taking 56% of the vote as President Bush won the district with 59%. But two years later, with Kansas Gov. Kathleen Sebelius, a Democrat, heading the ticket instead of Bush, Boyda took full advantage of the wave, beating Ryun in a repeat bid, 51% to 47%.

Despite national Democrats worrying about her ability to keep the seat, Boyda has refused to participate in the party's Frontline program for vulnerable members. The party has tried to help her build legislative accomplishments - she introduced the bill to ban pensions to members of Congress convicted of certain crimes - but she faces a decidedly uphill battle for re-election, especially as she faces another presidential cycle, when her district will likely vote strongly Republican.

The Republican primary will produce a nominee in strong position to take on the freshman Democrat. Ryun is running again, as is State Treasurer Lynn Jenkins. Jenkins has already hinted that the primary may be an ugly affair. In a meeting of district Republican leaders in August, she criticized Congressional GOP leadership, though without mentioning Ryun by name.

Both have shown early fundraising potential; through the second quarter, Jenkins had nearly $300,000 cash on hand, while Ryun banked $301,000. Boyda held $346,000 in reserves.

The race is one of National Republican Congressional Committee chief Tom Cole's favorites, and he often mentions it as one of the GOP's strongest pickup opportunities. If the party has money to play anywhere, Boyda's name will be near the top of the list.

If Beltway predictions had been accurate, Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, in New Hampshire's First District, would not have made it through her party's primary, much less gone on to defeat Rep. Jeb Bradley in 2006. But no one expected the dramatic Democratic swing New Hampshire underwent last year, when Democrats picked up both Congressional seats, won control of both houses of the state legislature and re-elected Gov. John Lynch with the highest margin in the state's history.

The swing can be attributed mostly to souring moods on the war in Iraq. Running in the primary, Shea-Porter, a Democratic activist, was a heavy underdog to State Rep. Jim Craig, a party leader in the State House. But Craig's attitudes on the war were far more cautious than those of Shea-Porter, who advocated ending the war quickly. That sentiment was echoed by the state's Democratic voters, who gave her a 54% majority in the primary, to Craig's 34%. Despite being outspent five to one in the general, Shea-Porter edged out Bradley 52% to 48%.

Like Ryun in Kansas, Bradley thinks the election was a fluke, and wants his seat back. He will face former State Health and Human Services Commissioner John Stephen in the GOP primary, a rematch from 2002, when Bradley took 31% in an eight-person field to Stephen's 23%.

Like Boyda, the NRCC has its eye on Shea-Porter. While Democrats have been hounding the GOP on the State Children's Health Insurance Program, Republicans have pushed back against some members, including Shea-Porter, in newspaper ads accusing them of voting to cut Medicare for seniors. Also like Boyda, Shea-Porter has refused to be included in the Frontline program. Still, she has found some success raising money, and through September 30 had raised over $410,000, banking $375,000.

The district narrowly favored President Bush in 2000, when he won New Hampshire, and 2004, when he lost the state. If Republicans have a chance at winning the Granite State in 2008, Shea-Porter may not be in Congress long. Still, the GOP has its work cut out for it because of a coattail effect: Lynch will again be on the ballot (every state office is up every two years in New Hampshire) and former Gov. Jeanne Shaheen is heavily favored in her rematch with Sen. John Sununu; a recent poll showed her leading the freshman senator by as much as 16 points. If voters in New Hampshire are casting ballots for Democrats up and down the ticket, Shea-Porter could live to serve another term.

The final candidate for the Michael Flanagan award, Congressman Tim Mahoney, has offered national Republicans perhaps the easiest line of attack of any freshman member. "Very candidly, this isn't the greatest job I've had," he told The Hill in May.

Mahoney represents central Florida's 16th District, and he should have faced one of the easiest contests, for a challenger, of any candidate in 2006. On the general election ballot, he faced the name Mark Foley, though Foley had withdrawn after a scandal exposed his inappropriate emails to Congressional pages. Still, with Mahoney's opponent, State Representative Joe Negron, forced to run under Foley's name, the Democrat managed to win by just 2%.

The narrowness of the race, combined with a strong Republican recruit in Tom Rooney, son of Pittsburgh Steelers owner Dan Rooney and Mahoney's perceived difficulty acclimating to the job, puts Mahoney near the top of the Republicans' target list.

Mahoney had already raised nearly $900,000 through the second quarter, and will surely top the magic $1 million mark when he files papers with the FEC today. Rooney maintained almost $275,000 on hand through the same period. Still, the Steelers fan is independently wealthy, and will be able to close any fundraising gap Mahoney opens.

President Bush won the district twice, by 6% in 2000 and by 8% in 2004, and redistricting made the seat safer for the GOP. Though Negron used a clever slogan when he stood in for the GOP - "Punch Foley for Negron" - he had just a month to campaign. Given even another week, Negron would likely have taken Mahoney down. Mahoney's Republican opponent in 2008 will not face the same stigma of having to run under Foley's name, and the incumbent's re-election bid will be extremely uphill, at best.

Michael Flanagan made the most of his time in Congress. After an historical upset, and his own loss two years later, he now runs a consulting firm just blocks from the Capitol in Washington, D.C. He was the product of a wave the likes of which few had witnessed in their lifetimes. Now, as Democrats swept into office in 2006 consider their own political futures, Republicans hope that at least a few are likely to follow in Flanagan's wake.

---

Sphere: Related Content

|

Email

|

Print

|

---

Related Topics: election 2008 |

Sponsored Links