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Answering the Unanswered GOP Questions

Appearing together for the first time, the Republican field as it is likely to look come caucus day met Tuesday in Dearborn, Michigan, to debate economic issues. With twelve weeks, at most, to make their case to Republican primary voters, the candidates find the race they run in a state of flux. Partisans favoring every contender are spinning the pundits by offering different answers to some key questions:

Did Fred Thompson have to win his first debate?

Yes: Thompson's late start makes every day that much more important. After disappointing performances at Republican gatherings in California, Indianapolis and Mackinac Island, the once white knight of conservatives needed to prove he could stand heads and tails above the rest of the field. The reviews showed Thompson did not win, and some even cast his performance as dull and disappointing. Thompson had his shot; he won't be a contender after failing to capitalize on his first debate.

No: Thompson showed up. That's enough. After an admittedly slow start, Thompson got stronger as the debate went on, took a good off-the-cuff shot at Mitt Romney, and avoided being tarnished. When Chris Matthews tried to stump him by asking the name of the prime minister of Canada, Thompson passed the test. Plus, how many Republicans were watching a debate at 4 p.m. on CNBC? Even fewer happened upon the 9 p.m. repeat on MSNBC. Thompson survived, shook off the rust, and has the chance to perform much better at the next debate, on October 21 in the key state of Florida, on the key station for Republicans, Fox News.

Who gets to play front-runner?

Giuliani: The mayor leads in national polls. Barring personal investment in the race, he raises more than any other Republican. February 5th is a big day that will require a lot of investment in a lot of states, which other candidates can't necessarily afford. That means Giuliani's name recognition carries the day.

Romney: His lead in Iowa looks virtually unassailable. In every early state, he has the best organization among Republicans. If he wins Iowa and New Hampshire, he could be unstoppable. Plus, as the only candidate with a checkbook big enough to cover thousands of ad points in California, Florida, Michigan and other early but overlooked states, and the will to use it, he could be playing in twenty states alone, while others have to pick their spots.

Thompson: Look at the pictures from the debate on Tuesday. Tall, deep-voiced, in command. It's been a rough start for Thompson, but GOP voters are clearly looking for something different. The training wheels are off, now Thompson's going to turn up the heat and wow crowds in a way none of the others have been able to. His second-place finishes in national polls, and the latest Des Moines Register Iowa Poll, is a great place to start.

None of the above: That's what Mike Huckabee, John McCain and the rest of the field hope. Though in truth, that argument is one any Republican nominee will have to get used to. The eventual winner will portray himself as the underdog to the Democratic juggernaut, who, if the twelve mentions she got during the debate are any indication, the GOP thinks will be Hillary Clinton.

How influential will Christian conservatives prove to be?

Very: James Dobson, Tony Perkins and other leaders of the Christian right despise Giuliani's socially liberal past. They're not enamored of Romney's past positions either, and some groups, especially in South Carolina, have begun spreading rumors about the Mormon religion designed to derail Romney further. That discontent should help Thompson, about whom top evangelicals remain suspicious, though lately Southern Baptist Convention head Richard Land has come to his defense, or Huckabee, whose religious credentials are the best in the field.

Still, the Bush Administration has continued to marginalize Christian conservatives, most notably by virtually ignoring the Office of Faith Based Initiatives and social conservative priorities. If Christian conservatives decide to teach the GOP the lesson that they are a force to be reckoned with, this question is better left to the general election and a third-party run from the right.

Not very: In 2004, Howard Dean stirred up the Democratic base more than John Kerry did. Still, Democrats just wanted to get rid of President Bush. If Republican primary voters decide their main goal is to beat Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, rather than to find the candidate they most agree with, the religious right will be sidelined. And despite Land's kind words for Thompson, none of the four front-runners, including John McCain, has particularly strong ties to evangelicals. The Christian right has yet to succeed in elevating someone like Huckabee or Sam Brownback enough to make a difference.

Will Southern primaries be definitive?

Yes: No Republican nominee in the last thirty years has failed to win South Carolina's primary. Thompson, leading by five in the latest Insider Advantage poll, trails Giuliani by just 0.2 points in the latest RCP South Carolina Average. He trails by wider margins in New Hampshire and Iowa, and if he is to win the nomination, he's got to get his first win somewhere. A South Carolina victory could propel him to better positions in Florida and in February 5th states, creating a snowball effect that gives Thompson the delegates to be the nominee.

No: No Republican nominee in the last thirty years has failed to win either Iowa or New Hampshire. Once Iowa or New Hampshire decides on a candidate, there simply won't be enough time for a losing candidate to rebound. And with the quick turnaround between primaries and the media's obsession with the race and any metric by which to measure it, all the paid advertisements in the world can't beat the free media that comes with an Iowa or New Hampshire win. If Romney sweeps both, he can cruise to the nomination. If Romney and Giuliani split, it's a two-way race, and Thompson, or anyone else, for that matter, won't be able to find the oxygen to continue.

Most importantly, how many candidates have a real shot at the nomination?

No more than two: Coverage yesterday stuck to sharp exchanges between Romney and former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani. That spat, and a lack of attacks aimed at Thompson, save Romney's Law & Order zinger, shows which candidate they think is their biggest rivals. They have the most money, the best organizations and find themselves in the best position to win Iowa (Romney) and New Hampshire (both). The two candidates would like everyone to believe the battle is between them alone. Giuliani would like to contrast his leadership with Romney's flip-flops. Romney would love to get Giuliani and his liberal social positions alone.

More than two: Thompson's just getting started. Polls in Iowa and nationally show Mike Huckabee is actually getting some traction (could he really get the third ticket out of Iowa?). John McCain has a following, and is best positioned to capitalize on any remaining support for the war in Iraq among Republican primary voters. And Ron Paul has $5 million with which to wreak havoc. The race is wide open, and Romney and Giuliani are flawed enough that the others can capitalize down the stretch. A day is a long time in politics. Twelve weeks is an eternity, especially if you're a Republican with a history of moderate to liberal positions.

Twelve weeks out, the answers to these questions shape the race. That every answer, to every question, is actually legitimate is a testament to the fact that the Republican race, even after Thompson's entry, Romney's ads and Giuliani's star-power, is up for grabs among at least a few strong candidates.

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