 | ||
 | Administration moves toward enforcement | |
| Politico Playbook: 'Muddy water' | |
| Elizabeth Edwards: Attacker-in-chief | |
| Edwards fails to get Dems to ban together | |
| Dems chances to grow House majority surge | |
| '08 Notes: We Just Can't Stop | |
| Grasping at IL Straws | |
| Up 300 Points | |
| Ode to August | |
| The Daily 2008 |
| August is Hell for Political Pundits | |
| Return of the Bear | |
| The Natural Returns to St. Louis | |
| Special Report Roundtable - Aug 16 | |
| Fred Has Waited Too Long |
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August 16, 2007
Haste Makes Waste, Fred
By Blake D. DvorakFred Thompson has not missed his moment. The frustration that we're supposed to be feeling about his delayed entry into the race is being driven by an impatient media and a base aware that most of the primary events up till now mean little. Thompson's entry, whatever his chances, will be a big event that will overshadow all the summer's trivial twists and turns.
Part of Thompson's plan here has to do with the expectations game. Two months ago, Thompson wasn't just another candidate. He was the conservative savior, the Southern-Fried Ronald Reagan. It was an envious position for any politician but also dangerous. While Rudy Giuliani would be out there surprising Republican voters and earning their respect, Thompson would be disappointing voters whose expectations of him had been ridiculously high. Under those circumstances, Fred-Dot-Com would have burst rather quickly.
Since then, Thompson has made a few blunders and taken his share of hits. But by waiting and letting the excitement dissipate, Thompson has rid himself of some of the silliness that had raised his expectation level to unrealistic heights.
Another part has to do with plain economics. Take Ames, for example. Mitt Romney spent a couple million dollars to win a straw poll against a pack of notable, but clearly second-tier candidates. A victory, but a hollow victory in many ways since Romney's three main rivals didn't participate.
Had Thompson announced in June might he have had enough time and resources to beat Romney at Ames? It's possible, but Romney wasn't about to be muscled out of Iowa. He needed an Ames victory more than Thompson, whereas a second-place finish for Thompson would have deflated the infant candidacy quickly, not to mention sap precious resources. So the best move for Thompson was not to participate at all, especially since Giuliani and John McCain weren't going either.
We also should remember that it's still very early. The new Quinnipiac University poll released yesterday puts the race in some context: Sixteen percent of those Republicans surveyed have no clue about whom they support. In June, that number was 17%; in May, 16%; in February, 15%. What this consistency should tell us is that a sizable portion of the GOP electorate has not been focused on the race.
To reinforce that point, look at Romney, coming off the all-important Ames victory. According to Quinnipiac, 47% of Republicans don't know enough about him to have an opinion, which is down just slightly from 54% in June. Even Giuliani isn't any more known to Republicans now than he was in June - those who don't know him hovers around 12%.
What that means is that the half-dozen or so debates we've had since the spring has done very little to boost any of the announced candidates. One can make the case that Giuliani, who had serious baggage going in, had to get out there early and show the base who he is. But why would Thompson, already fairly well known, subject himself to Chris Matthews' inane lecturing months before it really matters?
Official or otherwise, Thompson has been running for president since the spring. But his patience in holding off any official announcement has allowed him to organize his campaign and develop a theme beyond his original - and slightly arrogant - proclamation about the "times meeting the man." Come Labor Day, however, Thompson - and the voters - will be ready.
