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July 10, 2007

Special Report Roundtable - July 10

FOX News Special Report With Brit Hume

SEN CARL LEVIN, (D) MICHIGAN: The purpose of the surge was to give the Iraqi political leaders the space to work out a political agreement. And, as he has pointed out, as our leaders agree, although the surge is now complete, there is no evidence of political progress on the part of Iraqi leaders. None whatsoever.

SEN LINDSEY GRAHAM,(R) SOUTH CAROLINA: When it comes to defeating al- Quida in Iraq, not only is it possible, it is inevitable if we continue to do what we are doing. And that is keeping the pressure on, going into areas where they had resided in the past, forming new alliances with the people who reject their ideology. The enemy, al-Quida, is literally on the run.

HUME: Two quick glances at different perspectives on this war. It is very clear, now, the Democrats in the House and Senate will continue to introduce resolutions that, one way or another, will either slow down, and- or completely terminate, the president's policy, or strategy, of the surge in Iraq.

Republicans, so far, or at least enough of them, are holding together to resist it, but that could change at any time.

Some thoughts on all this, now, from Fred Barnes, Executive Editor of The Weekly Standard, Mara Liasson, National Political Correspondent of National Public Radio, and Mort Kondrake, the Executive Editor of Roll Call, FOX News contributors all.

Well, what about this? You are now having forceful arguments being made, as you heard from Lindsay Graham, that the surge, which, I gather, didn't get up to full strength until less than a month ago in Iraq, is working, that al-Quida is hurting and has been hurt by it.

And then you are hearing from people like Senator Levin and Senator Reid that the surge has been progress for six months and no progress has been made. How is this debate going?

KONDRAKE, EXECUTIVE EDITOR, ROLL CALL: Well, clearly, the surge, the troops to supply--the forces for the surge--have just gotten there. That is a fact.

HUME: To full strength?

KONDRAKE: Yes. The thing is that the administration and it's backers have changed the stated purpose of the surge, now. It used to be, give time for the Iraqi government to meet all the benchmarks, to get its political reconciliation in order.

That is clearly not happened. And so now, advocates of surge, like Lindsey Graham, and the president, and others, are focusing on the successes. And the successes are manifest against al-Quida.

Now, the question is, does--

HUME: But haven't they also been manifest in terms of the sectarian violence? The civil war being side of this being diminished?

KONDRAKE: OK. The question is can the Iraqi security forces hold that? Hold the Sunnis and the Shiites apart, police the streets at such time as we withdraw?

HUME: We wouldn't know that yet.

KONDRAKE: Well, that would seem to require a political settlement. In other words, if you have got these trained up forces, Sunni militias and Sunni police and Shiites, and there is no political settlement among their leaders, what happens when we leave? They start fighting each other.

MARA LIASSON, NATIONAL PUBLIC RADIO NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes. Look, I think that it might be true, as Senator Levin said, that there is very little evidence--he says there is none--but there is certainly very little evidence of political process. The question is, is there enough evidence of security progress for it to be worth staying there?

Clearly the majority of Democrats, all Democrats have decided no, it is not.

HUME: In fact, though, there are two components to the benchmark. One of them was political, agreements on legislation of various kinds. And the other was security in terms of the Iraqi end of it.

The Pentagon is saying that the Iraqis have done well on that, by comparison, although very little has happened on the political side.

LIASSON: Although it is pretty clear that the benchmarks are not being met. But maybe, as the administration is now suggesting, they are not the best benchmarks, they are not the best way to measure progress.

And I think the big question still remains, how many Republicans are not going to just voice criticism of this, but are actually going to join with Democrats when these amendments start coming in.

FRED BARNES, EXECUTIVE EDITOR, WEEKLY STANDARD: I don't think many, as it looks like right now. And we will muddle through and the surge will continue, and so on.

Look, idea of the benchmarks is not that they were supposed to all be met at the beginning of surge, it's at the end of surge. And that is after the surge has been successful, after al-Quida has been defeated, after some measure of security and peace had been created--I almost said restored but that wouldn't be accurate--created in Iraq. And that is what you get political reconciliation.

Now, look, it would have been nice to see the Iraqi government do more than they have, which isn't much, but they are paralyzed. But they are almost irrelevant to the surge and the counterterrorism campaign run by General Petraeus, which is winning in the belt around Baghdad, and some neighborhoods of Baghdad, which they have gone into already.

And we will find out more when he comes back in September. That was when we were supposed to have the first grade on the surge. Not in July. Democrats have moved it into July. And why have they moved it into July? Is there some god reason for this? There's only one reason-- it's the congressional calendar.

They have to do it now because they are going to be off, just like the Iraqi parliament, they are going to be off for the month of August. And so they feel they have to do it now.

There is no reason to grade all this stuff now, to judge the surge, and to judge the counterinsurgency, and all that. It's only because of the congressional calendar that they are doing it now, and that is a pretty poor reason.

HUME: At the end of this debate we are having now, will the president be able to carry the surge forward in the next year, or not?

BARNES: I think he will, yes.

HUME: Mara?

LIASSON: Into next calendar year? Yes, I think he will. I think it is hard to see them coming up with a veto proof majority to actually stop it.

KONDRAKE: I agree with that. But there has got to be some political progress, or it won't be long into next year--maybe the early months. Thee has got to be political progress.

BARNES: Mort, mort, on ground, where the Sunnis have rejected al- Quida and now joined with the government and the American forces, and so on, that is political progress.

If you are waiting for Maliki, you may have to wait longer.

HUME: Next up with the panel, Senator McCain is seems to be saying everything is hunky-dory with his presidential campaign. Well, we'll see what the all stars have to say about that after today's developments. Stay tuned.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SEN JOHN MCCAIN, (R) ARIZONA: No, It was a collective decision. We sat down and talked about it, and decided what was best for the campaign, and we think the campaign is going fine.

HUME: Well, the campaign may be going fine, but that makes it a little hard to explain why the director of campaign, the campaign manager, the political director, all quit today. Four of them, four of the top people, including a man who has been at McCain's side in nearly all of his presidential campaign endeavors, that being John weaver, a long time McCain Advisor and a key strategist for him.

So, where is the McCain campaign? It appears to be, with the money running out, with a weak fundraising quarter, on life support. But he says it is going fine.

BARNES: Well, you know, I actually think it is a little better off than it was before the campaign reshuffling here. I mean, it was going nowhere then.

But it is ultimately going to be up to McCain. And this was not a collective decision, this was McCain's decision. When he got back from Iraq on Sunday, people who talked to him said he decided then that there was going to be huge shake up. And this is campaign--

HUME: He said it is not a shakeup.

BARNES: Well, you know, look--

HUME: I'm just trying to--

BARNES: This is not necessarily fatal to a campaign. Remember, John Kerry fired his campaign manager--

HUME: Yes, but he wasn't out of money the way McCain is.

BARNES: Well, if he could get that $6 million, borrow it, basically, from his wife, that money--I don't think McCain can access that, maybe he can, but I don't think he is going to.

KONDRAKE: From John Kerry's wife? I think you're right, he probably can't.

BARNES: Yes, he would rather not do that, but he may have to.

Look, McCain has to decide what kind of a campaign he is going to run. And he hasn't decided it yet. Is he going to run a campaign on his strengths that will appeal to Republican and conservatives? I'm talking about winning the nomination, and that with the slogan "Commander in Chief from day one," and talk about that.

Or is he going to be the guy who is talking about, I can work across the aisle, and I think we ought to get bipartisan solutions, and so on. That stuff is not going to win him the nomination.

And he can't do both. He has had a muddled message. He needs one strong message. If he does it, I think he can get back the race.

LIASSON: Look, they also said they are only going to concentrate on three sates. Of course, he only has money to concentrate on three states.

HUME: Those states being?

LIASSON: Being New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Iowa. And--

HUME: He is in tough shape in Iowa.

LIASSON: She in tough shape in Iowa.

And I would say, right now, McCain, it is fair to say he is in the second tier. And what that means is, I think the definition of being the second tier--

HUME: The first tier being?

LIASSON: The first tier being Romney, Giuliani, and then the = soon to be candidacy of Fred Thompson, who, at least in the polls--

HUME: Which Carl says he will announce in early August.

LIASSON: And, at least in the polls-

BARNES: Not June?

LIASSON: But the point is, in the polls--

BARNES: It could be tomorrow. Remember, it was going to be July 11?

HUME: That was the Politico, or somebody said that.

LIASSON: Anyway, look, I think the definition of being in the second tier is hoping that something bad happens to the guys in the first tier, which means you are less in control of your own fate than if you are if you are the frontrunner.

And McCain is back to being an underdog. And he has always said about himself that he is never comfortable unless giving some straight talk, and I think he looked pretty uncomfortable there saying that everything is fine. Because it is not.

KONDRAKE: Look, this campaign, I don't know what McCain was doing leaving these managers in charge of Terry Nelson and John Weaver, because they completely messed things up.

They ran a campaign--Nelson was a veteran of the George Bush campaign, where he was a frontrunner, had lots of money, so they set up an operation all over the country as if they were going to collect $100 million--

HUME: Well, Rick Davis, wasn't he the guy who estimated they could raise the money, though, wasn't he?

KONDRAKE: Not that I know of. But in any event--and Weaver was a terrible manager in the sense that he blew his stack all the time, and got people mad, and couldn't organize.

So Davis is at least a calm hand. And mark Salter is still there, who is McCain's co-author of books, and stuff. And so I think the campaign will be settled.

They have blown through all this money without putting a single ad on television. They have a skilled ad team, but they haven't put anything on yet. So--

HUME: Will he survive this, or is his campaign about over?

KONDRAKE: I think he can comeback.

HUME: So you think he will?

KONDRAKE: Commander and Chief, Fred's slogan--

HUME: Mara, will he come back, or is this about over?

LIASSON: I think he has to do something by the Fall.

BARNES: Yes, of course he does. But he will.

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