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May 14, 2007
Special Report Roundtable - May 14
FOX News Special Report With Brit Hume
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
LEE BANDY, POLITICAL COLUMNIST: The verdict sneaked up on him. And it does surprise a lot of people that Rudy is running as strong as he is a state like South Carolina which is very conservative.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUME: That, of course, our old friend Lee Bandy, one of the sagest observers of political here in South Carolina. He's been doing it for a long time and the Rudy of whom he was speaking, of course, is Rudy Giuliani and the person he sneaked up on is John McCain. And that is reflected in a freshly minted poll just out today from our old friend Wit Ayers.
Let's look at the numbers reflected in the poll that show John McCain now ahead in South Carolina 25 percent, but that is down from earlier polls in terms of his lead in this state. Rudy Giuliani now at 20, Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich two, as of yet, undeclared candidates, next and then Mitt Romney all the way down at eight.
Now why is Mitt Romney No. 8 surprising? Let's look at the South Carolina name recognition in terms of the number of percentage of voters down here who have heard of these candidates. As you can see Giuliani and McCain nearly everybody has heard of them. But Mitt Romney, who is a relative unknown, has got his name recognition because of advertising in this state, all the way up to 87 percent. That puts him ahead of Fred Thompson, who despite his television career, only has 70 percent recognition in the state. And yet Romney remains behind candidates lesser known than he is. And two of whom have not yet declared.
Some thoughts on this now from Fred Barnes, executive editor of the Weekly Standard; who joins me here, as well, Bill Sammon, senior White House correspondent of the Washington Examiner; and from back in Washington, Maura Liasson national political correspondent of National Public Radio -- FOX NEWS contributors, all.
Let's start with the McCain-Giuliani horse race, such as it is. Mara, any thoughts on how Giuliani has gained ground here on McCain -- yeah, how he's gained ground on McCain when McCain seemed to be doing so much better here?
MARA LIASSON, NATIONAL PUBLIC RADIO: Look, I still think that McCain is still the front-runner in South Carolina. McCain has been working the state very, very hard. Giuliani has only made a couple of trips. And I think the Giuliani phenomenon is showing up in this poll just like it is nationally among Republicans where he's ahead of McCain in almost all the national polls.
And I think even in some of the other early primary polls. I don't think people have started to focus. What's puzzling to me is if one of the reasons why Romney isn't doing as well, which as Lee Bandy suggested maybe it's his religion, people have focused enough on Romany to know that, I don't think they have yet focused on Giuliani to think of all the other ways the he's different from the typical South Carolina voter, Republican voter.
FRED BARNES, WEEKLY STANDARD: Here we're in a state where people care about the Republican race, because it's an early primary, probably the first southern primary, although they are squabbling with Florida about who's going to come first in the South. So, I think they have paid more attention to these candidates, but I do think that they have paid a lot to Rudy Giuliani recently because these gotten so much attention nationally over his stand on abortion.
HUME: I know, but that doesn't seem to hurt him.
BARNES: But I think it's going to. You know, you don't get these reactions immediately, I think you'll see that McCain probably gained some and Rudy loses some. Look, this isn't the final word, there's going to be a lot more to go on in this campaign, including a debate tomorrow night.
BILL SAMMON, WASHINGTON EXAMINER: As for Romney not doing as well in terms of actually support, I mean, he's doing better in name recognition.
HUME: He spent a fair amount of money here, as you can see -- people know who he is.
SAMMON: Yeah, his first block of state-wide ads were launched here in South Carolina. They were on for several weeks, they were off, they were back on now. I think they may be down now, he's doing some national cable buys.
I talked to Romney's people today about this, to get them to try to explain this and they said look, obviously it would be better if they getting more support, but the process of getting your name out there, first step is getting people to recognize your name. That's not necessarily the same thing as knowing what you have done. I think people recognize Rudy Giuliani's name and they also know something that he's accomplished, namely his leadership in the wake of 9/11. People know John McCain, he campaigned here before, he ran here before so they know something about him. So, I think it's a process. We've go eight months before the first contest and I think once they get to know a little bit more about Romney, I think at least their hope is that he'll move up.
HUME: Mara, let's bring you in on that. Your thoughts on why it is that Mitt Romney, who's got people to recognize him at least, can't seem to get any traction?
LIASSON: You know, it's puzzling. I mean, why would Rudy Giuliani, somebody whose views are so liberal compared to the typical South Carolina voter be at the top of the heap and Romney who has, you know, now changed his views to become much more in line with that kind of voter, is not. I mean, maybe it's his Mormon religion, if you would expect that to hurt him, it is in South Carolina.
But, look I think this debate is very, very important for all these reasons we're just discussing, people we're just discussing, people are going to hear a lot about Giuliani and abortion, they're going to hear a lot about the Confederate flag, they're going to hear a lot about issues that are of particular interest to South Carolina Republicans and I wouldn't be surprised if you see some kind of sorting out in these polls after tomorrow night.
BARNES: You know I can tell you why Rudy's running ahead of Mitt Romney. He's a national hero, or at least and Romney is not. Look, Romney, we ought to learn a lesson from this too, Brit, and that is who is the leading money raiser among Republican candidates? Mitt Romney. Money does not equal support. They are two different things. You can raise a ton of money, as he has as a former business man and investment banker, and it doesn't mean he has support. There's something holding voters back, though.
SAMMON: His success is not limited to money. He's seen to have won the first debate, he wins straw polls. I think the guy is for real and to count him out at this stage of the game I think would be a big mistake.
HUME: OK, panel, pause for a moment here, we're going to come back and talk about Iran and some things the vice-president had to say about that, more next stay tuned.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DICK CHENEY, U.S. VICE PRESIDENT: We are confident that there are a number of senior al Qaeda officials in Iran. They've been there since the spring of 2003, about the time we launched operations into Iraq, the Iranians rounded up a number of al Qaeda individuals and placed them under house arrest and they're still there. What activities they've been engaged in, I'm not at liberty to discuss.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HUME: He says he's not at liberty to discuss those activities, which suggested that he and the administration know something about what the al Qaeda operatives in Iran are doing. Back with the panel to discuss this question of al Qaeda in Iran and the relationship of al Qaeda to the goings on in Iraq, as well. Fred, your thoughts on what about this and what implications it hold for the administration.
BARNES: Well, one thing you have to remember -- remember, so often, I think it was the CIA and many others that said there could be no connection between Saddam Hussein and al Qaeda because al Qaeda is Sunni -- or rather, the -- Saddam Hussein was a Shiite and they are Sunnis, or I guess Saddam is a Sunni. But I'm going to fumble to my point, here one way or another, but the truth is the Iranians are Shiites, al Qaeda is Sunni, and yet, they are obviously working together here because they have one similar goal in mind. And the goal is not to create an Iraq that is stable, they want to destabilize Iraq and keep it that way because they think that's in their best interests. And because, and particularly to drive America out. Because America is the enemy of both al Qaeda and the Iranians.
SAMMON: And that's why you have the Bush administration now saying they will meet with the Iranians on the issue of Iraq, on the narrow issue of Iraq.
HUME: Isn't that a genuine shift?
SAMMON: It is a shift. But in fairness, you know, the president's detractors, I mean, you can't win for losing. I mean, when you don't meet with the Iranians are you're bad because you met with the Iranians, then you say, OK, well, I'll meet with the Iranians, you're a flip-flopper, you know.
And I think it's important to distinguish between this meeting and a meeting that might be held about the nuclear ambitions of Iran. And on that front the Bush administration has not backed down from its refusal to meet one-on-one with the Iranians because the disputes are different. The dispute over Iraq is a one-on-one dispute, between us and Iran, we don't want them meddling in Iraq. The dispute over the nukes is the international community against Iran, so we want to be apart of the international community meeting with the Iranians. And I think Bush is holding his ground on that front.
LIASSON: Look, I think talking to Iran is talking to Iran. I mean, it's clearly a shift and something good may come of it or nothing may come of it at all, but what I think is interesting is the premise of talking to Iran about Iraq and our ambassador in the region, Ryan Crocker, has said this, is that somehow the U.S. believes Iran has an interest in a stable Iraq.
Well, you know, Fred just raised the question, maybe they don't. Maybe they want to see Iraq as destabilized as possible, partly in order to push the American forces out and also to extend their own control there. But I think that's an assumption that is definitely unclear. What kind of Iraq does Iran want? And re they willing to work with us to create stability there?
BARNES: Look, look, I don't think that's unclear at all. We see what the Iranians have done in Iraq. They sent in weapons -- they send them in, they were used against Americans, to kill Americans. They want to destabilize Iraq. And for our State Department to act as if -- and I've heard State Department officials say this as you have Brit, to say that, well, it's really in the best interest of the Iranians to have a stable Iraq, well, nobody told the Iranians.
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