Fireworks Likely at GOP Debate

In the world of presidential debates, the challenging party usually produces the acrimony and incumbents accentuate the positive.

But the reverse may be true when 10 Republican presidential hopefuls hold their first nationally broadcast confrontation tonight.

A week after Democratic aspirants met in a session marked by efforts to avoid the negative and act presidential, the GOP candidates seem likely to go after one another with considerable gusto as they vie for the favor of the party's dominant conservative wing.

A heated clash would have a certain degree of irony, since the debate is taking place at the presidential library of Ronald Reagan, author of the GOP's so-called 11th Commandment: "Thou shalt not speak ill of a fellow Republican."

Beyond any acrimony on social issues, the encounter will likely provide a sharp contrast with the Democrats on Iraq. Except for long-shot Texas Rep. Ron Paul, the candidates all back President Bush's policies and may unite in deriding Democratic efforts to force him to withdraw U.S. troops.

The debate comes at a time when increasing infighting among the top GOP contenders has failed so far to clarify the race or ease concerns of conservatives unhappy over the Republican field.

That raises the stakes, since conservative backing has been a key to winning GOP nominations.

And the longer that disquiet persists, the more likely conservatives might bypass the front-runners for one of the candidates who currently trail in the polls - or, more likely, for one still mulling a White House bid, such as former Sen. Fred Thompson of Tennessee or former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia.

From the outset, the three top contenders - Sen. John McCain of Arizona, former Mayor Rudy Giuliani of New York and former Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts - have put a premium on wooing conservatives, stressing their own stances while bashing their rivals.

But their inconsistencies have opened them up to attack.

Mr. McCain, who has always opposed abortion rights, angered social conservatives with his 2000 attacks on the Rev. Jerry Falwell and Pat Robertson. He voted against some Bush tax cuts, though he now says he'd extend them.

Mr. Giuliani, who appointed many Democrats to the bench in New York, now says he favors strict constructionist judges like the nominees of GOP presidents, including Justices Antonin Scalia, Clarence Thomas, John Roberts and Joseph Alito. However, he still favors federal funding of abortions.

Mr. Romney, who once touted his support of abortion rights, now opposes them. He has spoken out ever more strongly against stem cell research and gay marriage.

Recent comments by the three have accentuated the infighting.

Mr. McCain circulated a paper contrasting his positions on abortion and gun control with those of Mr. Romney and Mr. Giuliani. Mr. Romney responded by chastising Mr. McCain for changing his stances on the Bush tax cuts, ethanol and overturning the Supreme Court's sanction of abortion rights. And Mr. Giuliani, who previously supported civil unions, opposed a law on the subject passed by the New Hampshire Senate because it "goes too far" toward recognizing same-sex marriage.

Against this backdrop, Sen. Sam Brownback of Kansas and former Govs. Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, Jim Gilmore of Virginia and Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin hope to gain some support among religious conservatives, who will be especially influential in next January's Iowa caucuses.

So far, none have shown much movement in the polls or fundraising. They seem overshadowed by speculation over the prospects of such noncandidates as Fred Thompson. In several polls, the former Tennessee senator who now appears on television as the district attorney in Law & Order has placed third behind Mr. Giuliani and Mr. McCain. In another, he passed Mr. McCain.

On Iraq, tonight's debate may be mainly interesting if it reveals any new divisions between the candidates and Mr. Bush. Besides Mr. Paul, who has opposed the war from the start, Mr. Brownback has questioned the military "surge" and the president's failure to do more diplomatically. And Mr. McCain, a leading backer of the surge, has sharply criticized Mr. Bush's management of the war.

The most prominent GOP war critic, Sen. Chuck Hagel of Nebraska, won't be there, since he has not decided if he'll run. But it would be significant if any of the others join Mr. Paul in attacking the Bush policy.