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March 03, 2007

Hot Stories: Dem Doldrums & Neo-Realism

Beltway Boys

MORT KONDRACKE, CO-HOST: Coming up on THE BELTWAY BOYS, Democrats promise big changes when they struck into office two months ago, especially on Iraq. We'll tell you why their agenda has been going nowhere fast.

FRED BARNES, CO-HOST: The U.S. gets ready to meet with Iran and Syria over the next steps in Iraq.

KONDRACKE: Forget China's currency market. Is Alan Greenspan to blame for this week's free fall in the stock market?

BARNES: And social conservatives continue to swoon over Rudolph Giuliani.

KONDRACKE: All that's coming up on THE BELTWAY BOYS. But first, the headlines.

(NEWSBREAK)

KONDRACKE: I'm Mort Kondracke.

BARNES: I'm Fred Barnes. And we're "The Beltway Boys". Hot story number one, Mort, Dem doldrums. Not Republican doldrums, Democratic doldrums.

KONDRACKE: For a change.

BARNES: Well, for a change, but it's a new year. It's 2007 now. Item number one, there's division over the Democrats' vaunted first 100 hours agenda. The House passed this list of items in their self imposed first 100 hours, give or take an hour, but every single measure is stuck in the Senate.

Now a couple of them will pass, for sure. One is the minimum wage. Another is, you know, money for energy research on alternative fuels, but those will be changed and then perhaps drastically. A number of the other ones aren't going to pass at all.

And the main thing is these things are bottled up in the Senate for now, all six of them, after Democrats in the House were promising how fast they'd get everything through, remember?

KONDRACKE: Yes, well, look, the Democrats have only been in charge for two months.

BARNES: Yes.

KONDRACKE: .so I mean, don't declare that this is a disaster yet. You know, and as you point out, the minimum wage is going to pass. There will be a bipartisan energy plan. There will probably a bipartisan Homeland Security plan eventually that passes.

BARNES: Yes.

KONDRACKE: Stem cell research is going to pass the Senate. It's going to vetoed by President Bush, but that's his problem, not the Democrats' problem. And it's a long term problem for the Republicans I think as well.

So you know, we'll see how bad it is and when it all works out in the end.

BARNES: Mort, I did not call it disaster. I called it doldrums. That's not the same thing. Give me a break.

Item two, there's no consensus among Democrats over steps to end the Iraq War. Check out what Harry Reid, the Democratic leader in the Senate, was saying. Watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. HARRY REID (D), SENATE MAJORITY LEADER: There's not yet been determination made by Democratic caucuses how we will finalize our legislative approach to this. There are a number of different ways we can go.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BARNES: Boy, not yet decided? They're completely (INAUDIBLE). They have been. You know, first their resolution was filibustered because they wouldn't allow a second Republican resolution to be voted on continued funding for the troops in Iraq.

Then they had - then they got filibustered again. Now they want to change the war resolution or whatever. They don't know what they're going to do.

In the House, they did pass an anti surge resolution, you know, one opposing the increase in troops and the new strategy that Bush has in Iraq. But then they started turning things over to John Murtha, the congressman from Pennsylvania, who came up with some, you know, micromanagement scheme, where he was -- and it sounded like he was going to be commander in chief. And that created rebellion by House Democratic moderates and even anti-war Republicans.

And now, I think, I personally think Murtha is an albatross for Democrats. And his plan is killed. They don't know where they're going to go. So it is - it is -- the D-word applies, `disarray.'

KONDRACKE: Yes, well, look, both Houses have demonstrated that they have a majority of members who are against the surge. They've said that.

Now going beyond that, there is trouble. And I'm glad there's trouble.

BARNES: Yes.

KONDRACKE: I mean, the John Murtha resolution, which was totally responsible to cut off funds for the troops is dead. The latest wrinkle on this is that they're going to have some sort of benchmarks for readiness of troops, but it's waiveable by the administration.

BARNES: Yes.

KONDRACKE: They want to put the onus on the administration. But what I think the Democrats ought to do, they made their point, right, that they don't like the surge. Now let Bush play out his plan and hope that it works, for heavens sakes.

BARNES: They should do that, but they can't. They're being pushed so hard by the left.

KONDRACKE: That's right.

BARNES: .or they're lefties in the beginning.

All right, thirdly, Democrats voted Thursday to make it easier for labor organizers to unionize workers, but didn't get enough Democratic support that could sustain a promised veto.

There's not going to be a veto. We will be filibustered in the Senate. It's a terrible piece of legislation, enormously unpopular. 90 percent of the American people oppose it because what it would do is deny workers a secret ballot election to decide whether they want to be in a union or not.

KONDRACKE: Yes.

BARNES: Because you know the truth is, practically nobody wants to be in a union anymore. So Democrats and labor have to come up with these ways to get around that.

KONDRACKE: Yes, you know, I mean, it's pathetic, actually. Practically every single Democrat in the House of Representatives has voted for this, including moderates, new Democrats, supposedly pro-business blue dogs. They all voted for it.

BARNES: I know.

KONDRACKE: Why? Because they're scared of the labor unions.

BARNES: Yes.

KONDRACKE: That's why.

BARNES: Indeed they are. And another reason why Democrats are tied in knots. A good defense on the part of Republicans, especially on the Senate side. And I would, of course, have to sing about Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader in the Senate, who is the master of using minority rights, of which there are a lot in the Senate for sure. But using it to maximize the power of the minority.

And he's got 49 Republican votes. And on Iraq, of course, he had Joe Lieberman, too. And he has made the most of it.

KONDRACKE: Yes. But look, the measure of this performance of this Congress for both Republicans and Democrats ought to be accomplishment.

BARNES: Yes.

KONDRACKE: .not gridlock.

And there's some good news on this front. Kent Conrad, Democrat from North Dakota, and Judd Greg, Republican of New Hampshire, have been trying to put together a working group to solve the long-term entitlement program, along with the administration. The deal is struck. They're actually - they're going to start negotiating with Hank Paulson of the Treasury Department. And something could happen.

BARNES: Well, we'll see. But one more thing, Mort, look, the onus to achieve some accomplishments is with the majority in the Senate, not the minority, the majority. That's who it sticks with.

KONDRACKE: Everything takes bipartisan deals with a Republican administration.

Coming up, with North Korea and now Iran, we'll tell you how the new pragmatism is driving the Bush foreign policy. Stick around. Hot story number two is straight ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KONDRACKE: Welcome back to THE BELTWAY BOYS. Hot story number two is neo-realism. I want you to watch this exchange that took place in the White House briefing room with Tony Snow. Watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Could it be that you're concerned if you do - if you are seen as embarking on a new policy, is the concern that the old policy was wrong?

TONY SNOW, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: No, the concern is you guys are getting it wrong. And I don't know how to get you to get it through your heads that it's not new. I mean, it's just -- it's just not new.

What's going on here is something that has a long set of precedence. There are multilateral forums, where if the Iranians are there, we're not going to walk out. The Iraqis, we have always said, if they invite us to this regional forum, we will be there. They invited us, we're going to be there.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KONDRACKE: Well, you know, in a sense what Tony Snow said is true. Just a second now. Just a minute. For the purposes of this particular regional conference that Iraq invited us and the Iranians and the Syrians to, you know, there is -- this is not a break of precedent that we're going. And we're not -- Tony Snow says we're not going to go and have one-on-one talks with the Iranians and the Syrians.

On the other hand, there has been a significant change in American foreign policy in the second Bush term from the first. Condi Rice is presiding over something that's much more diplomatic, much more multi- lateral than the Cheney/Rumsfeld neo-con unilateralism of the first term. And it's produced some results, like the de-nuclearization agreement with North Korea.

Now a lot of hawks say that this is all weakness. But it's worth noting that this is not the same foreign policy that you get the kind of negotiating strategy that Democrats and Europeans tend to favor, where you bring your hat in your hand and you're willing to divide up, you know, give up half of your assets. This is muscular, coercive diplomacy.

Neo-realism is not my term for it. It was something applied by "The Wall Street Journal," but I think it's true. It's -- what we did with North Korea was that the Chinese applied muscle. We applied muscle. And the North Koreans have buckled under. Now what we're trying to do with Iran is to do the same thing. We've got a lot of military pressure on them, economic pressure, political pressure, diplomatic pressure. And we're trying to get them to stop uranium enrichment. We'll see if that works.

BARNES: Yes, unfortunately, there's no China there that would have great influence on the Iranians.

Look, I like muscular coercive diplomacy. The more muscular and the more coercive, the better. But it does have.

KONDRACKE: Beats war.

BARNES: Yes, it does, yes, but it has to be backed up, this diplomacy, by the threat of the use of force. And you have to be willing at certain times, as in Iraq and Afghanistan, to actually use force. And then the threat becomes credible.

Who in the past week, Mort, has been the man who has carried out, I think, very strongly and very visibly exactly what you're talking about? Muscular, coercive diplomacy? It's Vice President Dick Cheney.

First, when he made it clear to the Iranians, not that he was talking to them, but through the press, that the military option to take out the nuclear facilities in Iran is still on the table. It wasn't a threat, he just said it was there. Good for him.

And then he went to Pakistan, of course, and talked to Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf, telling him look, you got to do something about what you're letting happen in northwest Afghanistan, where you're letting the Taliban and al Qaeda forces regroup and train.

That can't continue. We'll see what Musharraf does.

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