2008 Polls National Iowa New Hampshire General Election GOP | Dem GOP | Dem GOP | Dem Head-to-Head

---

February 03, 2007

Hot Story: Pre-Season Rankings

Beltway Boys

MORT KONDRACKE, "ROLL CALL": Coming up on "The Beltway Boys," the 2008 presidential race is off to a fast and early start.

FRED BARNES, "WEEKLY STANDARD": We'll rank the candidates on both sides of the aisle, and tell you who we think has the best shot to win their party's nomination and the White House.

KONDRACKE: We'll also take a look at next week's showdown between President Bush and Congress over Iraq.

BARNES: And Senator Al Franken? The comic says he's in the Minnesota Senate race.

KONDRACKE: That's all coming up on "The Beltway Boys," right after the headlines.

(NEWSBREAK)

KONDRACKE: I'm Mort Kondracke.

BARNES: And I'm Fred Barnes. We're "The Beltway Boys."

The "Hot Story" - number one, anyway - is "Pre-Season Rankings." And Mort, of course, we're going to set the stage for a presidential campaign that's actually already begun, with candidates running hard. But we're going to rank, as you would, you know, a pre-season basketball team or a football team, give - give you the rankings, starting with the Democrats.

We think Hillary Clinton is the undisputed frontrunner, followed by John Edwards, Barack Obama and Al Gore. Of course, Gore hasn't said whether he's going to run or not. But I think we agree he'd be a top-tier candidate we he to get in.

And then there - of course, there are all those Democratic dark horses, Bill Richardson, Tom Vilsack, Chris Dodd, Dennis Kucinich. Maybe I left out five or six of them.

KONDRACKE: I don't care.

BARNES: I know. But - but there are a lot of them. A lot of Republicans, too.

Here's the latest FOX poll, and we know these FOX polls are pretty good, even - even this early in the game. The poll shows Hillary Clinton holding a huge lead over the rest of the field. Hillary's at 43 percent. You know, I'm kind of surprised at that, Mort. Barack Obama's No. 2 with 15; I thought he'd be higher. And John Edwards at 12; I thought he'd be a little higher, too. Al Gore is at 11, which is pretty good when you're not even running. And the rest of the field is in the dust.

Now Hillary's lead is really lopsided. But I think there's a flaw in her campaign.

Mort, you and I have watched her in her six years in the Senate, and - and she has really moved to the center after having this reputation as a big-time liberal. She's moved to the center, particularly on national security. Spent all those hours at the Senate Armed Services Committee meetings and hearings and so on, longer than other - other senators. Really become conversant on defense issue, was a supporter for a long time of Donald Rumsfeld, voted for the war in Iraq and so on. And - and has become more centrist on other issues.

And - and she sort of encapsulated in - in this one statement. Watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), NEW YORK: I grew up in the middle class, in the middle of America, in the middle of the last century. So by definition, I'm middle of the road.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BARNES: Well, there you have it.

But the - the - I think - I think she's jeopardizing by being in the - in the middle of the road, I think that makes her very electable as a president in the general election, but I think she's jeopardizing that by veering - sprinting to the left on Iraq. All of a sudden - she spent the month of January with one statement more and more and more in opposition to the war in Iraq, a war she had voted for.

And here's her latest on Iraq, in her speech to the Democratic National Committee on Friday. Watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CLINTON: If I had been president in October 2002, I would not have started this war. I would not. If we in Congress don't end this war before January 2009, as president, I will.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BARNES: Look, Eisenhower in '52 only said he'd go to Korea. Now she's saying she will go - not only maybe go to Iraq, but she'll end the war.

Look, that's, I think, a pretty dangerous statement for her. She wants credibility as a commander - a potential commander in chief. I think she may be jeopardizing that, and making herself less electable. A lot less electable.

KONDRACKE: Yes. She made that statement about being middle of the road at the New America Foundation, which is a radical center think tank, my kind of people, you know?

BARNES: Radical center? I don't even know what that is. I know center.

KONDRACKE: Center, and - and - and exciting new ideas.

BARNES: All right.

KONDRACKE: But we'll talk about that some other time.

She - she did not repeat "middle of the road" when she made her speech at the Democratic National Committee, even though she did cite all that stuff about being middle class and all that kind of - the whole pack, the whole Democratic pack, is surging to the left as - as fast as it can. Hillary is just behind the - the - the - the -- her two major rivals, Obama and - and John Edwards. She is in favor of capping the number of troops in - in Iraq, not necessarily pulling back, although she says we should have a phased withdrawal. And she's threatening the Iraqis with the loss of aid if they don't measure up to certain earmarks.

John Edwards and Obama are further to - to her left. Edwards is in favor of an immediate pullout of 40,000 troops, and - and wants Congress to cut off the money.

And here's what he said at the Democratic National Committee on Friday. Watch this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOHN EDWARDS (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We cannot be satisfied with passing non-binding resolutions that we know this president will ignore. We have the power to stop the escalation of this war.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KONDRACKE: And then Obama said that - that he wants to star withdrawing troops in May of this year, and he wants them all out by April of - of 2008.

Here's - here's his statement on the Senate floor on Wednesday. Watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), ILLINOIS: This plan would not only place a cap on the number of troops in Iraq and stop the escalation. More importantly, it would begin a phased redeployment of U.S. forces with the goal of removing all U.S. combat forces from Iraq by March 31, 2008.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KONDRACKE: Yes. The left-wing magazine "The Nation" wrote about all this - about Obama: "With his latest announcement on Iraq, Obama can now be considered the major anti-war candidate. Obama's move could be devastating to John Edwards."

BARNES: I doubt that.

KONDRACKE: Well, actually, I think what - what we've got here is a game of hopscotch, where everybody is going to go - is going to bounce over the other guy.

Now Obama's real problem is what we heard a business executive from Chicago say to us last week, that the presidency is not an entry-level job.

BARNES: Well, I hope the voters think that.

Look, when we - remember in 1984 when all the Democrats were leapfrogging each other to say who was first for the nuclear freeze - which turned out to be a terrible idea. Actually, it was from the beginning.

Here's what I wonder about: what are Hillary Clinton and John Edwards and Barack Obama and all the rest of them going to say if the counterinsurgency strategy with this new surge of troops actually works to secure Baghdad and make Iraq viable as a - as a stable country? What are they going to say?

I think I know what they're going to say. And - and you know what it is, Mort? They're going to ignore success. Same thing Democrats did in '74 and '75 in Vietnam. They're going to ignore it and pretend like their opposition to the war is all that matters.

KONDRACKE: Yes, I'm afraid you're right.

You know, among the dark horses this week, Joe Biden, senator from Delaware, stepped in it at the - at the very outset of his - of his campaign with this remark about Barack Obama. Watch - listen.

(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)

SEN. JOE BIDEN (D), DELAWARE: ".the first sort of mainstream African- American who is articulate and bright and - and clean - and a nice-looking guy."

(END AUDIO CLIP)

KONDRACKE: Yes, well.

BARNES: I could barely hear that.

KONDRACKE: Well, he said - you know, that Barack Obama is the first African-American candidate, and a clean, articulate guy. You know, it - it - it - it were ambiguous (ph) comparisons to other African-Americans who - who have run for president.

But he also was very refreshing about the other candidates, including Obama's lack of experience, and Hillary and John Edwards as chaotic - the chaotic consequences of their plans for Iraq. Of course, I think that Obama - that Biden's plans would lead to chaos, as well.

Coming up, Fred and I will handicap the Republican field for president in 2008. Does anybody have the right stuff for the GOP nomination? Find out after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KONDRACKE: Welcome back to "The Beltway Boys."

Now, let's - let's take a look at the Republican field for 2008. We think that John McCain should be in the top spot, followed by Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. In the FOX poll, Rudy Giuliani is leading the field with 34 percent; John McCain with 22; Gingrich third at 15; and - and Romney is a surprisingly low 3 percent.

There are a whole slew of Republican dark horses, that you can see them here - here on the screen.

Now, if Democrats are surging to the left, I would say that - the - the main Republicans are sort of meandering to the right.

BARNES: Yes.

KONDRACKE: You've got John McCain trying to cozy up to the religious conservatives that he - that he formerly dissed. And Mitt Romney is reversing himself on - on abortion and gay rights and - and so on.

The - the Gallup poll shows that among Republican voters, Rudy Giuliani is regarded as more likable than John McCain, better in a crisis, a better speaker, better understand the problems of ordinary Americans, and would be - do - do better in a general election. So then why are we picking McCain over - over Giuliani?

By the Kondracke rule of Republican primogeniture. That is, the next- oldest guy in line gets to be the king. So that's McCain.

BARNES: You mean like Bob Dole in `96.

KONDRACKE: And Ronald Reagan before that.

BARNES: Yes, I buy that. That's pretty good.

Look, none of these guys is actually locking up the dominant conservative base in the Republican Party, particularly in these Southern primaries. They've - you know, they've picked off people - well-known people. But the - but - but they haven't gotten anyway.

You know, truth is, they - to his credit, Romney is the only one who's made some in - some inroads among conservatives, significant ones, I think. And when he was on "FOX & Friends," the morning show on FOX the other day, he in one, I thought, really effective statement, defended his Mormon faith, and allied himself with Christian conservatives and pro-lifers, and indeed the whole social conservative movement, which is huge in the Republican Party.

Watch this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MITT ROMNEY (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I believe in God. I believe that - that all of his children are - are around us, in the various nations and in this great nation. I believe in the sanctity of human life. And I believe that if people want to understand the nature of my life, they can look at my wife and me and our family. They can see that our faith has made us better people, better Americans. And we share the - the values of the other citizens of this great land.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BARNES: Woo! That was pretty good, if you're running a Republican primary. Wouldn't help you much in the Democratic primary.

Now I - I - I - I want to have - mention one other guy, and that's Newt Gingrich, who says he'll wait around for a draft, and he'll decide next September of something. If Gingrich got in the race now, he's a guy that I think could really, with that dazzling speech he gives and so on, really grab a lot of these conservatives who are holding back. The - his personality tends to scare people off, but he has great potential as a Republican presidential candidate, I think.

KONDRACKE: Yes.

You know, all the major Republican candidates are in favor of Bush's surge. John McCain is the most out - out in front on this. But he does have an explanation for - in case it doesn't work, why it didn't work, and why things could have gone better if he'd been president. And that is, that we didn't have enough troops there from the beginning. And I think it's a - it's a valid explanation.

Now what's fascinating to me about this Republican race is that here you have Chuck Hagel getting all this adoring publicity from the mainstream media for opposing.

BARNES: Right.

KONDRACKE: .Bush on the surge, and he is nowhere in the polls.

BARNES: You know who is.

KONDRACKE: It's astounding.

BARNES: You know who is really extraordinarily popular, and even as a potential presidential candidate among Republicans? Jeb Bush, the former governor of Florida. Of course, he's not running.

But think of this, Mort: a John McCain for president, Jeb Bush for vice president ticket. I think that would be a winning ticket in the general election.

Now who do you think's going to win the general election? I mean, if I - if I held a gun to your head?

KONDRACKE: If you held a gun to my head - in the general election?

BARNES: Yes.

KONDRACKE: I'd say, `Shoot.'

(LAUGHTER)

KONDRACKE: I'm not ready to say.

BARNES: All right.

---

Sponsored Links

About Us | Contact | Advertise | Privacy Policy         © RealClearPolitics 2006