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January 06, 2007

Hot Story: Showdown on Iraq

Beltway Boys

MORT KONDRACKE, "ROLL CALL": Coming up on "The Beltway Boys," President Bush and Democratic leaders are making nice for now. But a showdown over Iraq is just days away.

FRED BARNES, "WEEKLY STANDARD": Bush is shaking up his military team on the ground, and will announce a new Iraq strategy next week.

KONDRACKE: But Democrats want to flex their political muscle, and will likely oppose a troop surge.

BARNES: And Rudy Giuliani is forced to do some big-time damage control this week. We'll tell you why.

KONDRACKE: That's all coming up on "The Beltway Boys," right after the headlines.

(NEWSBREAK)

KONDRACKE: I'm Mort Kondracke.

BARNES: And I'm Fred Barnes, and we're "The Beltway Boys."

And the "Hot Story" is "Showdown!" Of course I've talking about showdown on Iraq, and President Bush is girded for battle. He'll give a speech on Wednesday evening to outline his - quote - "new way forward" - unquote on Iraq. And we have a pretty good idea of what he's going to say. And we have a pretty good idea how Democrats are going to respond.

I mean, we know for instance that Bush is going to go for more troops in Iraq, a surge, which I think may be as many as 30,000 troops. He's going to want more money to boost the Iraq economy, and some money to - to the - the fledging political parties in Iraq. And - and Democrats are obviously poised out there to oppose everything he says.

But listen to Bush first. Watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I'm in the process of making up my final decision as to what to recommend. What - what recommendations to accept.

One thing is for certain: I will want to make sure that the mission is clear and specific and can be accomplished.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BARNES: That was when - after he met with Angela Merkel, the German chancellor on Thursday.

Now - I mean, Democrats have - there are certain things they can do and not do. But we know they're going to be for the most part opposing Bush on this. They can't block - in the short run, they can't stop him from sending the - more troops to Iraq. But they can block new spending on - on things that the president seems to want. You know, this money for the economy and for the political parties in Iraq.

And, you know, just a day after the - the Democrats were sworn in - they had one day of bipartisanship, then the next day Pelosi and Reed sent this letter to the president. Let me read you part of it, Mort:

"Surging forces is a strategy that you have already tried and that has already failed. Like many current and former leaders, we believe that trying again would be a serious mistake. It's time to begin to move our forces out of Iraq and make the Iraqi political leadership aware that our commitment is not open-ended" - unquote.

I think we'll also hear some of this Democratic criticism a day before Bush's speech, when - there's a hearing on Iraq before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, in Democrats' hands, and headed by Joe Biden, who's become I think every day a stronger critic of the American intervention in Iraq.

Now - I don't know. If I had to guess, here's what I'd say - I mean, the battle is on, at home and - and in Iraq. And I think the president's going to win the domestic battle. But the one in Iraq? That's up in the air.

KONDRACKE: I know.

This is Bush's last shot in - in Iraq. It's his last shot for victory, and his last shot really to avoid a humiliating defeat, both for himself and for - for the United States. It's got to be a big surge. It's got to be a long surge. It's got to be a successful surge. And - and it's got to establish security for once and for all in Baghdad and Anbar province, and pave the way for economic development and - and political development.

And this is a long shot, I got to - I got to say. Because nothing before has - has worked.

Now Bush looks like he's going to go for broke. He's not only, you know, going to surge, but he's also replacing his team in - in Iraq. The military - General Casey, who's been in charge of the Iraqi forces; General Abizaid, the CENTCOM commander, both leaving. Incoming Admiral William Fallon for CENTCOM, and General David Petraeus, probably the most successful and praised commander ever to - to serve in Iraq is going to be the - the overall commander in Iraq.

Also, our ambassador there, Zalmay Khalilzad is leaving, and he's going to take over the U.N. job. And Ryan Crocker, who's the - been the ambassador to - to Pakistan is moving over to be - to be the new Iraq ambassador. So he's trying to do a fresh start here.

Now the Democrats, as you say, are not going to support him at all. They're going to do every thing possible to thwart him, short of actually denying money for the troops. And, you know, and - and as you say, they may even deny money for - for other things.

The big question is, Are the Republicans going to support him? Right now, the only upfront supporters he has for this policy are - are heroes John McCain and - and Joe Lieberman. Every body else is sort of silent and standing by and waiting to see what happens.

BARNES: Yes. Well, he's not going to get any help, particularly from Nancy Pelosi, who - who, you know, of course rose to become the first woman as a House speaker ever on - on Thursday. And - but she used her speech - you know, this was supposed to be a day of high bipartisanship. And she used her speech to whack Bush repeatedly on Iraq.

Watch this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. NANCY PELOSI (D-CA), HOUSE SPEAKER: The American people rejected an open-ended obligation to a war without end. Shortly, President Bush will address the nation on the subject of Iraq. It is the responsibility of the president to articulate a new plan for Iraq that makes it clear to the Iraqis that they must defend their own streets and their own security. A plan that makes - promotes stability in the region, and a plan that allows us to responsibly redeploy our troops.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BARNES: You know, I don't think Democrats correctly understand American - the American people's sentiment on Iraq. Obviously, they're upset, because we appear to be losing in Iraq. I don't think they want to lose though. I don't think they want a - a hasty retreat, which Democrats seem to be - to be advocating. Certainly Nancy Pelosi does, and she's a follower of John Murtha, who wants a - remove the troops immediately.

Now, you know, Republicans - or the White House, really, is girding for battle also on domestic issues as well. And it's not insignificant that Harriet Miers, the White House general counsel, is leaving. And we don't know who's going to replace her, but it's - it's going to be some hard and tough lawyer who's going to have to deal with a flood of subpoenas coming into the White House, particularly as Democrats go back and try to find flaws in every thing President Bush has done, particularly in Iraq.

But by the way, Mort, I think the White House is - is ready to use the veto, to use executive orders, to get filibusters by Senate Republicans, both to defend themselves, and block policies they don't like. They like some of the things Democrats want: immigration reform and extending No Child Left Behind. I think they'll agree on energy. You know, more money for these alternative fuels.

But the fight is on.

KONDRACKE: Yes.

You remember in "The Godfather," when - when they want to the mattresses for the - for the - for - for war, you know? They set Tom Hagan aside as the.

BARNES: Yes.

KONDRACKE: .as the peacetime consigliore, and he got a wartime consigliore. That's what Harriet Miers' replacement is all about.

The - the - look, the message of the last election - and both Republicans and Democrats said say so, was, the public is sick and tired of combat war - warfare between the parties. They want not vetoes; they want not filibusters and stuff like that. They want action. And there can be action on the - the - on the items that you - that you mentioned, immigration and - and so on.

The problem is going to be on money. Both sides say that they want to get the deficit under control. They want to eliminate the - the - the budget deficit by the year 2011, I think it is. The - the - what the president wants to do is not raise taxes, and limit domestic spending. What the Democrats want to do is invest in - in domestic programs, health and - and education and children's - children's health, for example. That's going to cost money.

They got to get the money from increased revenues somewhere. And either it's going to be higher tax rates, or it's going to be some - some other device for - for (INAUDIBLE). That's where the - the crunch is going to come, over this money business. And I could write you a scenario for a closedown of the federal government again.

BARNES: Yes.

KONDRACKE: Remember, when the - when - when the Republicans took over in 2000 - in 1994, the next year there was a - a budget showdown. And - and the government got shutdown. I mean, you could - you could have that same kind of confrontation in 2007.

BARNES: You could. But we won't have that. It.

KONDRACKE: Well, I hope not.

BARNES: It's not going to happen. Look.

KONDRACKE: The public would be disgusted if it happened.

BARNES: The White House is perfectly happy having this argument with the Democrats. They want more spending and tax increases. The - the Republicans and Bush want spending restraint and no tax increases. They think that - that helps Republicans. I - I think that's up in the air, particularly when you bring in issues like child health care and so on, for spending on that, which most people I think favor.

But - but this is the battle we're going to have. The public, in the election in 2006, did not vote for higher taxes. In fact, they didn't even vote, I don't think, to change anything in any particular policy except to find one that wins in Iraq. I mean, we have a center right sentiment in this country, and that really hasn't changed.

So I - I think Bush - and Bush has now has adopted a policy, I believe, of - of no new taxes across the board. Social Security reform - if - if Democrats won't accept personal investment accounts, the president's not going to give them a tax increase. So it's off the table, too.

KONDRACKE: Listen, if you want to get - if - if you want to make a down payment - and it's possible that there won't be one - on getting our great debt problem under control, you're going to have to raise some revenues. And if Bush is going to stand in the way of that, I guarantee you, the public is not going to be with him.

BARNES: What would happen with the tax money raised - extra tax money on Social Security that's brought in? It'd be spent right away. You know it. You know it.

KONDRACKE: No. Not right away.

BARNES: Oh, of course! Immediately. Yesterday.

KONDRACKE: That's the philosophical difference between us (ph).

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