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January 11, 2007

Bush Buys Himself A Little Time

By Carl Leubsdorf

To all but the truest of true believers, President Bush's latest effort to salvage the U.S. role in Iraq seems like a last-ditch effort to delay the inevitable.

It depends heavily on the dubious proposition that a modest increase in troops will succeed - where all else has failed - in reducing the violence and stabilizing the political situation.

And it faces criticism from both those who think that only a credible threat of U.S. withdrawal will force the necessary political changes in Baghdad and those who think that 21,500 additional troops will not be enough to make a real difference.

In his long-awaited speech last night, Mr. Bush called the situation in Iraq "unacceptable" but held out hope his moves would bring us "closer to success" and "hasten the day our troops begin coming home."

But by rejecting the bipartisan Iraq Study Group's plan to start phasing out U.S. combat forces, he decided, in effect, to delay withdrawals indefinitely.

Some military backers say this latest effort could take two to three years to succeed.

That means that, unless Congress blocks funds to implement the troop increase, any conclusive outcome could be delayed until after Mr. Bush leaves office.

It virtually ensures that the future U.S. role there will become the centerpiece of the 2008 campaign.

And it places the president's GOP supporters such as Sen. John McCain in the potentially perilous stance of maintaining a position most Americans oppose.

Unsurprisingly, potentially vulnerable GOP senators facing re-election in 2008 - Norm Coleman of Minnesota, Susan Collins of Maine, Gordon Smith of Oregon and John Sununu of New Hampshire - were cool to the latest Bush panacea.

So was Kansas Sen. Sam Brownback, a conservative GOP presidential hopeful.

Mr. Bush did acknowledge his responsibility for the state of affairs in Iraq to a greater degree than before, declaring that, "where mistakes have been made, the responsibility rests with me."

But his dire warnings of the impact of a U.S. pullout could enable him to blame any ultimate failure on his foes or his successor.

Indeed, recent days have seen an effort by some administration backers to blame problems in Iraq on U.S. military commanders, rather than their civilian bosses.

Ultimately, responsibility for success or failure is the president's.

Since polls show the American people already rate the U.S. effort in Iraq a failure, his job is doubly difficult.

Meanwhile, in seeking to get off the political defensive, Mr. Bush challenged Democratic critics to show they have a better way to achieve the stability in Iraq that both parties claim they want.

"All involved have a responsibility to explain how the path they propose would be more likely to succeed," he said.

But the Democrats are resisting getting enmeshed in such a debate, arguing Mr. Bush is ignoring voters who made clear in November they want a way out of Iraq.

Their stance is bolstered by the fact that polls show a solid majority thinks the war was a mistake and favor getting out.

Still, Mr. Bush's initiatives may buy him some time.

The ultimate political verdict won't lie so much in the instant reactions as in the success or failure of his moves.

And despite renewed Democratic vows to force him to change course, they are unlikely to seek more than a symbolic rejection of the escalation for now.

That gives Mr. Bush some time - perhaps six months to a year - to produce some successes.

But if the situation is not noticeably better by next January's presidential caucuses and primaries, it's hard to see any outcome but even greater public pressure to bring American troops home, regardless of what it might mean for Iraq.

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