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December 09, 2006

Hot Story: Now, What?

Beltway Boys

FRED BARNES, "WEEKLY STANDARD": Coming up on "The Beltway Boys," the Iraq Study Group reports, President Bush decides. We'll take a look at President Bush's dwindling options.

MORT KONDRACKE, "ROLL CALL": Hillary Clinton is feeling the heat from newcomer Barack Obama. We'll tell you how she's adjusting her game plan.

BARNES: Blasphemy! Democrats say Congress will be in session five days a week now.

KONDRACKE: And why is one of Jimmy Carter's closest advisers dissing him in the press? We'll give you the scoop.

BARNES: "The Beltway Boys" are next, right after the headlines.

(NEWSBREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: (INAUDIBLE). I - I thought we would succeed quicker than we did. And I am disappointed by the pace of success.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BARNES: I'm Fred Barnes.

KONDRACKE: And I'm Mort Kondracke. We're "The Beltway Boys."

Well, the "Hot Story" - the only "Hot Story" of the week is "Now What?" President Bush is considering his options in Iraq, if there's going to be a change of policy. At long last, and with great hoopla, the Iraq Study Group, the Baker-Hamilton Commission - James Baker and Lee Hamilton - finally came out with their report, unanimous report rendered by 10 - five Democrats and - and five Republicans. Seventy-nine recommendations.

And you know how much I love bipartisanship and unanimity and consensus.

BARNES: Commissions.

KONDRACKE: And - yes, civility and moderation and all that kind of stuff.

But that applies to domestic policy. This is war, and in wars, you either win or you lose. And well meaning though this group was, and they adopted basically President Bush's stated objectives in Iraq - that can defend itself, govern itself, sustain itself and be an ally in the war on terror - there is pressure in this report for Bush to pull out practically all American combat troops by early 2008.

And that was used by the media in particularly, but Democrats as well, to hammer President Bush about what the policy's been up to now. And this came out in - in his exchange with Tony Blair at the - at the White House on Thursday. He was - he was assailed practically by a British reporter. But the - the American press was just about the same.

Watch this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

QUESTION: Mr. President, the Iraq Study Group described the situation in Iraq as "grave and deteriorating." You said that their increasing attacks is "unsettling." That will convince many people that you're still in denial about how bad things are in Iraq, question your sincerity about changing course.

BUSH: It's bad in Iraq. Did that help?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KONDRACKE: Yes, well, he - he went on. He.

BARNES: I like that answer. That was a snotty question.

KONDRACKE: Yes, well, he went on with his most vigorous answer in the - in the entire press conference, and - about how important it is that we win in Iraq. If we don't win in Iraq, he said, eventually the terrorists will take over that country, use it as a base camp for attacks in the United States. He was polite to the Iraq Study Group, but he was determined about what - about what his position is.

Here, watch his - what - what he said about the Iraq Study Group. Here.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BUSH: I thought the report did a good job of showing what is possible. The - the - the Congress isn't going to accept every recommendation in the report, and neither will the administration. But there's a lot of, you know, very important things in the report that we ought to seriously consider.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BARNES: You know, let me point to one, I think, very telling difference - and it's partly symbolic, but it goes beyond that - a telling difference between President Bush and the Iraq Study Group. And it has to deal with the word "victory," whether that what's you're seeking or not in Iraq.

Here's the president at - at that same press conference with Tony Blair. Watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BUSH: We agree that victory in Iraq's important. It's important for the Iraqi people. It's important for the security of the United States and Great Britain, and it's important for the civilized world.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BARNES: It certainly is.

Now here is James Baker, one of the codirectors of the Iraq Study Group, explaining after the report - their report was released, why the word "victory" is not in there.

Watch this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JAMES BAKER, DIRECTOR, IRAQ STUDY GROUP: We stayed away from a lot of terms that have been bandied about during the campaign season, in the political debate. You - you probably won't find "civil war" in here either. You won't find "victory." But you will find "success."

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BARNES: Now, I maintain there is a difference. There really is a difference. It's partly symbolic, I'll admit. But there really is a difference between success, or - and - and victory.

Success - well, let me start with victory. Victory means that the - the insurgents are defeated, and you have a democratic government in charge. May still be some violence, but the situation is radically better.

Success is very elastic a term, Mort. You know that. It can mean just there's a lot less violence, or it can mean there's some unelected strongman in charge of the country, in an - in an authoritarian way. And on and on and on. And - and I think - I mean, it - it - I'm - I'm backing up what you said earlier. This - it - it shows that the Iraq Study Group has not provided a path for winning, for victory in Iraq. It's a path towards something else.

Now Bush's strategy, of course, is to exploit this ballyhooed report by the Iraq Study Group first by, you know, being selective. He's - he's going to pick out things in it - of the 79 recommendations, there are a lot of them he likes. I - I - I point to one in particular, and that is to spend more money equipping the Iraqi army, which is so ill-equipped right now. And certainly we can afford it. That's one.

The second one, though, is more difficult. And that is to use the report's endorsement of Bush's goal in Iraq, which you repeated earlier - you know, for Iraq that can defend itself and govern and so on - to use that. Plus, its call for bipartisanship to try to quell all the Democratic forces that want to pull out of Iraq right now.

Now, that's the hard one, though to - to - to really tamp down - to find a way to tamp down the - the Democratic get-out-of-Iraq-now brigade. It's very hard. And when President Bush met with congressional leaders, including the Democratic leaders, on Friday, it showed that success is - on that last part - or victory on that last part is not his hand - at hand.

Dick Durbin, who is No. 2 in the Senate - the No. 2 Democrat, came out of there and said, The first business that we have to deal with is starting to get troops out of Iraq. That's not victory or success.

KONDRACKE: That's defeat.

BARNES: That's defeat.

KONDRACKE: Yes.

BARNES: Yes.

KONDRACKE: OK, Bush is getting input now from the Pentagon, and he's getting it from the National Security Council and the State Department. So we go on to the, "now what?" And he's going to come out with a decision with a speech - a primetime speech, apparently, the week after next. The - the week of - of December 18.

So here's what I hope he'll do. You can call this the Kondracke Plan, if you want.

BARNES: First, or not to (ph).

KONDRACKE: Yes, I'd prefer not to, too.

First, there should be a surge of more troops in Iraq, 50,000 at least, primarily to clear and hold Baghdad. That's - you know, that - if we can establish pacification in Baghdad, that will -- that will go a long toward - toward winning the war.

Secondly, accelerate the training and equipping of - of Iraqi troops, which you pointed out. Now, there was a - one damning paragraph in that report, which said that the United States, last year, spent only $3 billion on equipment for the Iraqi army, which accounted for two days of expenditures - U.S. expenditures in Iraq. They're - they're driving around in - in open jeeps when we've got armored - armored vehicles.

Third, appoint James Baker as a special envoy to Damascus. Now James Baker insists that the Syrians will make a trade: that they will stop supporting Hezbollah, stop trying to overthrow the Lebanese government, deliver Hamas as a - as a - as an entity that will support the existence of Israeli, all in return for the Golan Heights. Now if he can deliver this deal, he deserves a Nobel Peace Prize. So I suggest that Bush appoint him to that job.

Fourth, increase the size of the total military. This is something that John McCain has been calling for for months, and it's a good idea. And even the Democrats say that they're for it.

BARNES: And so is "The Weekly Standard."

KONDRACKE: Right. And fifth, side with the Shiites and warn the Sunnis.

Now, this is a last-ditch item. If -- Nouri al-Maliki is - is holding a reconciliation conference with the Sunnis and the other groups in Baghdad. If that works, great. And that's - should be our objective. But it - if it won't work, we should side with the 80 percent that's the majority - that's the vast majority of the country, the Shiites and the Kurds, try to isolate Sadr among that group. But basically side with the Shiites and the Kurds, and warn the Sunnis, if we're forced to get out of here, you're going to be the victims of this. The - the - the you're going to get killed. So get on with the program.

BARNES: Right. OK.

Here's my plan, but I'm not calling it a plan. I'm just calling these ideas that I have. And you'll see I - I agree substantially with what - what you said, starting with this one: first, Mort, increase troops substantially, Americans and Iraqi troops, to secure Baghdad.

You got to - look, if you can't control your capital, you can't control the country. I mean, it's just as simple as that. And besides, Baghdad is - what? - a quarter of the population of Iraq.

Second, hold generals accountable, as Abraham Lincoln did, and replace those who fail to achieve goals. Look, if in six months, the generals there can't secure Baghdad, get some other generals to try a different tactic.

Third, force the Iraqi government to arrest Muqtada al-Sadr. Mort, you know he's a criminal. There was an arrest warrant out for him before. He - his activity is treasonous, among - among other things. You're going to have to come to grips with him sometime. Should have done it a couple years ago, but now it's better than never.

Fourth, stop coddling Syria.

(CROSSTALK)

KONDRACKE: You don't agree with my Baker.

(CROSSTALK)

BARNES: I don't agree with Baker. The Baker - look, I mean, sending Baker, who wants to coddle Syria and is promising things he can't deliver, would have been like in World War II, sending Mahatma Gandhi, who won't - who said he could conduct civil disobedience, and that would stop Hitler - you know, Gandhi to Berlin as a - as a special envoy. Mort, the -the Baker thing is silly.

Fifth, add two army divisions to American armed forces. This is agreeing with you, and - and they need at least two. I mean, look, I'm for a streamlined army, but there - there are some instances, and Iraq is one, where you just need a lot of boots on the ground.

KONDRACKE: Especially the army and the Marines.

BARNES: Yes.

KONDRACKE: .and trained for counterinsurgency activities, which - which went out of style in the - in the military after Vietnam. It's got to be brought back.

BARNES: Yes, but the - the soldiers who are trained in it do very well.

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