2008 Polls National Iowa New Hampshire General Election GOP | Dem GOP | Dem GOP | Dem Head-to-Head

---

November 04, 2006

Hot Story: Advantage Democrats

Beltway Boys

MORT KONDRACKE, CO-HOST: Coming up on THE BELTWAY BOYS, it's put up or shut up time. After all the stump speeches, all the debates and all the TV ads, in just three days, you decide.

FRED BARNES, CO-HOST: We'll handicap all the hottest races and predict the winners.

KONDRACKE: We'll tell you how John Kerry's gaffe might play out on election day.

BARNES: And we'll give you our final predictions on the balance of power.

KONDRACKE: THE BELTWAY BOYS are next, right after the headlines.

(NEWSBREAK)

KONDRACKE: I'm Mort Kondracke.

BARNES: And I'm Fred Barnes.

And we're THE BELTWAY BOYS.

We're coming to you tonight from the Fox News Channel's election headquarters in New York City.

And tonight's one and only hot story -- advantage Democrats.

Mort, one thing is certain about this election, it is a Democratic year. If you have an "R" by your name, in lots of parts of the country, that's going to hurt you.

Now, what are the reasons for this?

I think two of them have been cooked in the cake and are pretty obvious -- the war in Iraq is unpopular. That -- everybody knows that. And they will have this six year jinx, where if it's the sixth year of a presidency, people have gotten wary of the folks in power, whether at the White House or whether in Congress. And, of course, that's Republicans this year.

And there are two reasons, as well, or ways that Republicans, I think, have made this worse for themselves. One, of course, is reform. I think Republicans are popular when they're pushing reform, whether it's tax reform, entitlement reform, immigration reform. I mean think if the Republicans had come together on immigration reform. I think that would have helped them. But, in fact, they have abandoned reform.

And the other one is their campaign strategy, that just hasn't worked. You remember we -- I remember hearing about it about the same time you did. It was going to be a choice between a Republican and the Democratic candidate in the Senate and House, not a referendum on President Bush.

Well, it's pretty much a referendum on President Bush. So that didn't work.

In fact, practically, nothing has helped the Republicans, except for John Kerry in the last few days with that slur, which he said was a joke that was botched, this slur on American troops in Iraq, which actually reflected what I think a lot of liberals think, that the G.I.s over there are kids who didn't study in school or dropped out and that -- and now we're stuck in Iraq, which actually isn't the case.

But that's what they think.

A lot of people criticized Kerry, but my favorite was Vice President Cheney.

Watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DICK CHENEY, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Senator Kerry said he was just making a joke and he botched it up.

(BOOS)

CHENEY: I guess we didn't get that nuance.

(LAUGHTER)

CHENEY: Actually, he was for the joke before he was against it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BARNES: That's pretty good for Cheney.

KONDRACKE: Well, look, on this Kerry business, I think that it has a lot more to do with the 2008 presidential race than the 2006. I think it was a passing phenomenon.

But it does have an effect on the 2008 race. And to demonstrate that, here is our Hillary Clinton and Jim Webb, the candidate for the Senate in Virginia, showing that they weren't amused by that botched joke.

BARNES: Yes.

KONDRACKE: Watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON (D), NEW YORK: What Senator Kerry said was inappropriate and I believe we can't let it divert us from looking at the issues that are at stake in our country.

JIM WEBB (D-VA), U.S. SENATE CANDIDATE: If that was John Kerry's attempt at a joke, he needs to work on his punch line.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BARNES: Yes, those are Democrats now.

KONDRACKE: Yes. Exactly.

I mean John Kerry had very little chance of getting the nomination again in 2008 anyway. They are gone. They are utterly gone now.

Look, I completely agree with you this is a 60-year itch election. They are always, almost always referenda on the incumbent president and whatever has gone wrong during his term. And in this case, it's going to be a repudiation of President Bush and his conduct of the war in Iraq.

And Bush, I think, made it worse going with his final message of the weekend sort of being that he's going to stick by Don Rumsfeld as secretary of defense all the way through the administration, which seems to mean that there's not going to be a change of course, even though the president has said that there would be adjustments.

BARNES: In tactics.

KONDRACKE: Yes, well, but, you know, people want -- desperately want something different from what's been going on before.

Then the other, you know, the other matter, which doesn't really affect the Congressional Republicans, but it doesn't affect Bush specifically, is corruption. I mean reform -- the opposite of reform is exactly what the Republicans have delivered in the Abramoff case and so on.

Look, the history on this is that if you exclude 1998 and 1986, when the president's had approval ratings over 60 percent, the four other 60 years since the end of World War II, the average loss for the incumbent party has been 47 House seats and eight Senate seats. I don't think it's going to be that big this year, but it's going to be pretty bad.

Now, Bush's current approval rating is only 38.3 percent in the RealClear Politics average. And the generic ballot test, which now, Fred, does mean something as you get very close to an election, is Democrats 53, Republicans 37-1/2.

In 1994...

BARNES: No more polls. No more polls.

KONDRACKE: The generic in 1994, when the Republicans picked up 52 seats, was 54 percent for the Republicans.

It's -- again, I don't think it's going to be that bad a loss, but it's going to be pretty bad.

BARNES: Yes, let me -- I'm groping here a little bit, but let me add one more thing about '94, how it's different from 2006.

This year, incumbents are still fairly popular. About 60 percent of the people say they like their congressman or congresswoman. It wasn't -- it was way below 50 percent in 1994.

KONDRACKE: OK, a little bit more history.

In 2002, the Republicans picked up eight seats...

BARNES: In the Senate.

KONDRACKE: ... in the Senate -- in the House.

BARNES: OK.

KONDRACKE: ... violating all kinds of tradition for an off-year election. They got 52 percent of the vote.

Now, according to a recent Pew poll, there's been a major switch among key swing voters since the 2002 election, as you can see from that, for example.

BARNES: Yes.

KONDRACKE: White Catholics were -- favored Democrats by 9 percent in 2002. Now it's 17 percent, and so on, working moms and all the rest. A major shift...

BARNES: Do you believe all that?

KONDRACKE: I do.

BARNES: You believe all that?

KONDRACKE: Yes, I do.

BARNES: OK.

KONDRACKE: A major shift of swing groups.

Now, the Republicans are even losing ground with segments of their traditional voters, including white males, as you can see, gone from 22 to 5 percent; Southerners gone from Democrats -- favoring Republicans by 7, now they're Democrats by 3. So...

BARNES: Do you think all this is permanent?

KONDRACKE: No. It's not permanent.

BARNES: OK.

KONDRACKE: It's -- we're talking about this election...

BARNES: All right.

KONDRACKE: ... which means, it just ratifies the extent to which this is a Democratic year.

BARNES: All right, coming up, it should be a photo finish battle for the Senate.

We'll take a look at that the top 10 races and call the winners.

Stick around.

You're watching a special edition of THE BELTWAY BOYS.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KONDRACKE: Welcome back to THE BELTWAY BOYS.

We're coming to you from the Fox News Channel's headquarters in New York.

It's down to the wire for control of the U.S. Senate. The Democrats need to pick up six seats to take over that chamber.

Let's take a look at the top races.

And we begin with Virginia.

Republican incumbent George Allen versus Democratic challenger James Webb. The RealClear Politics average, a poll, shows that Webb is leading by just 1/2 a point.

BARNES: Mort, you will remember that this Senate race was just to tee up George Allen so he could run-for the presidency in 2008.

KONDRACKE: That's over.

BARNES: Yes, that is over. Instead, he's stumbling across the finish line now after one of the clumsiest campaigns I've ever seen.

Fortunately for him, there are a lot of people in Virginia who remember what a great governor he was.

KONDRACKE: Yes, well, look, James Webb will get the northern Virginia vote, but he's also a kind of a rural down state kind of guy. He's a Marine. He's got a son who's a Marine in Iraq right now. And, what's more, he's got Mark Warner out doing his last minute campaign ads.

So THE BELTWAY BOYS' call is, I think that Webb will win.

Fred thinks that Allen will win.

Next to New Jersey, incumbent Bob Menendez, Democrat, versus Republican challenger Tom Kean, Jr.

The RealClear Politics average shows Menendez up 7.

BARNES: Fortunately for Menendez, New Jersey voters have a very high tolerance for corruption and have had for years. If George Allen was the clumsiest candidate, I think Tom Kean, Jr. is the stupidest candidate.

He has spent a lot of time attacking George Bush, the president, in his own party, which has driven away conservatives. And since he started out, it's been downhill.

KONDRACKE: Yes, well, Kean has been saying that Menendez is under federal investigation and there's no confirmation that that's actually the case. And this is, look, this is a Northeastern Democratic state in a Democratic year. So THE BELTWAY BOYS' call for New Jersey is -- Fred and I both think that Menendez wins.

It's a nail biter in Tennessee. This is an open seat being vacated by Bill Frist. Democratic candidate Harold Ford, Jr. versus Representative Bob Corker. The RCP average is Corker plus 7.

BARNES: It's not really a nail biter anymore. Mort, all you need to know is this. Peyton Manning, the great quarterback from the University of Tennessee, is for Corker. Barbra Streisand, that singer from Malibu, California, she's for Ford.

KONDRACKE: Yes, there's a...

BARNES: That's all you need to know.

KONDRACKE: There's a protection of marriage amendment on the constitution. That should bring out some Republicans. Look, if Harold Ford were married and if he had a different name from Ford, I think he might have a chance this year. But his family is just a burden that he can't stand. And I think there's also a racial factor that's hidden.

THE BELTWAY BOYS' call for the Tennessee Senate race, Fred and I both think that Bob Corker will win.

In Missouri, Republican incumbent Jim Talent versus Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill. Right now, the RealClear Politics average shows McCaskill with just a 1 point lead.

BARNES: You know, Talent won his Senate seat in 2002 by an eyelash and McCaskill lost for governor in 2004 to Matt Blunt by a very narrow margin. So you don't have a couple of landslide candidates. It is a very close race. It's been a dead heat the whole time.

I think that Talent is stronger, though, and I also think the embryonic stem cell research referendum is going to go down.

KONDRACKE: Well, I thought the stem cell amendment was going to be the factor which pulled McCaskill through. I'm not sure of that anymore, because the -- that campaign has not been well conducted.

But, my rule of thumb is that undecideds break against the incumbent if it's not over 50 percent, so THE BELTWAY BOYS' call for Missouri is I say McCaskill wins and Fred is sticking with Jim Talent.

It's getting tighter in Montana. Republican incumbent Conrad Burns is closing the gap with Democratic challenger John Tester. The RealClear Politics average now is just Tester plus 2 percent.

BARNES: You know, I think Burns wins if the folks in Montana believe that Tester is too liberal for Montana, which, after all, is not a very liberal state. And Tester wins if people there, a majority of them, just don't like Burns, who can be kind of oafish from time to time.

But I think Burns is finally getting across the message that Tester's a liberal.

KONDRACKE: Yes, but, look, Burns still has the Abramoff problem facing him and he's got Brian Schweitzer, the very popular Democratic governor. This is not a state -- even though it's a heavy red state -- that goes, always goes Republican in Senate races.

So, THE BELTWAY BOYS' call for the Montana Senate race is I think Tester wins, Fred thinks that Burns will pull it out.

And the race for Maryland is a toss-up by some people's lights. This is an open seat. Democratic Congressman Ben Cardin is facing a stiff challenge from Republican Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele. The RCP average shows Cardin up by 4 points.

BARNES: Number one, you have to admit, Steele is an exciting candidate.

KONDRACKE: He is.

BARNES: He's -- for an African-American Republican candidate, he's done a wonderful job in a very heavily Democratic state.

Ben Cardin, the guy he's running against, is dry toast.

But excitement is not what always wins.

KONDRACKE: Yes.

BARNES: Particularly in a blue state.

KONDRACKE: Right.

Look, Steele needs -- has about -- is carrying about 14 percent of the African-American vote. He needs 20 to 25 percent. If he could pull it -- pull it over that line -- and he's gotten some big named African-American endorsements -- he could win.

But I think that in Montgomery County, which is practically all white, whereas Bob Ehrlich, who is pro-choice and pro-stem cell, can get those suburbanite voters, Steele can't.

So THE BELTWAY BOYS' call on Maryland's Senate is we both think that Cardin is going to win.

Republicans are bracing for a loss in Ohio. Incumbent Mike DeWine is trailing Democratic challenger Sherrod Brown. The RCP average shows Brown up 12 points.

BARNES: You know, this is a double negative state. It's bad for Republicans nationally. It's bad for them statewide because of corruption in Columbus. And that tells you all you need to know.

KONDRACKE: Yes, I think so, too. I mean the jobs climate is lousy. The political climate is lousy. And poor Mike DeWine is going to get taken down by the undertow.

So THE BELTWAY BOYS' call in the Ohio Senate race, we both think that Brown picks up the seat for the Democrats.

Republicans also could face a loss -- and they probably will, in fact, in Rhode Island. Incumbent Lincoln Chafee is trailing Democratic challenger Sheldon Whitehouse. The RealClear Politics average shows Whitehouse at plus 9.

BARNES: You know, Chafee is one of the sharpest, most likable and influential senators I have ever -- oh, oh, oh, that was his father.

KONDRACKE: His father.

BARNES: That's what it was. Yes. No, Chafee, that -- this Chafee is a loser.

KONDRACKE: Yes, and the "R" next to Chafee's name is death...

BARNES: Yes.

KONDRACKE: ... in the, probably the most Democratic state in the whole country.

So THE BELTWAY BOYS' call in Rhode Island, we both think Sheldon Whitehouse picks the seat up for the Democrats.

We now head into Pennsylvania. Republican incumbent Rick Santorum is facing an uphill battle against Democratic challenger Bob Casey, Jr. The RCP average shows Casey plus 11.

BARNES: You should like Casey because he really is a compassionate conservative and you are alleged to like those. But he's never broken 50 percent. They needed a third party candidate here to take votes away from Casey. And he was ruled off the ticket.

KONDRACKE: A little history on this. Santorum picked up the seat in 1994 because Casey's father, who was the then governor, Bob Casey, Sr. refused to support Harris Wofford, because he was pro-choice.

Well, now Wofford is helping Casey and THE BELTWAY BOYS' call on Pennsylvania's Senate, we both think Casey will win.

Our last stop is Connecticut. Joe Lieberman is running as an Independent there against Democrat Ned Lamont and Republican Alan Schlesinger. The RealClear Politics average shows that Lieberman is up by 11 points.

BARNES: Yes. All those left-wing Democrats, Lieberman has stuffed them.

KONDRACKE: Right. Right. This is a sweet victory.

BARNES: Yes.

KONDRACKE: I mean I think it's wonderful and I think it would be great if Lieberman were the deciding factor between Democratic and Republican take over of the Senate. You know, I hope that Lieberman pauses just a second to let his colleagues worry and then goes -- becomes a Democrat.

So, THE BELTWAY BOYS' call in Connecticut is Joe Lieberman keeps the seat and he stays a Democrat.

BARNES: All right, coming up, overwhelmed by all those House races out there?

Don't worry, we'll tell you which ones are the real bellwether races to watch on Tuesday night.

Don't move a muscle.

THE BELTWAY BOYS in New York City we'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BARNES: Welcome back to a special edition of THE BELTWAY BOYS.

Let's take a look at the battle for the House.

As it stands now, the Democrats need 15 seats to take over.

Here's the current balance of power, as we'll have a pretty good idea which way the wind is blowing fairly early Tuesday night.

We'll get our first inklings at 7:00 Eastern, when the polls close in Indiana.

Three Republican incumbents are in tight races there -- Chris Chocola, Mike Sodrel and John Hostettler. The race to watch here, Mike Sodrel's race in the 9th District against former Democratic Congressman Baron Hill, who is the guy he beat a couple of years ago.

KONDRACKE: Right. Well, this would be, the Sodrel race would decide all these three, because the Hostettler, Hostettler is supposed to lose, checkpoints is behind and right now the Democrats say that Hill is up by four.

BARNES: You know, they said that about all the races, though.

You know what I'd like to...

KONDRACKE: No they don't. No they don't.

BARNES: You know -- oh, really...

KONDRACKE: They really don't.

BARNES: Oh, they do.

KONDRACKE: The Democrats I talk to don't say that.

BARNES: OK.

Anyway, Sodrel is not an ingrate. That's what I like about him. He had Bush came in 2004 and helped him. He had Bush back this year, and when Bush was not quite as much help.

All right, also closing at 7:00, Georgia. Republicans have a chance to knock off two Democratic incumbents here, Jim Marshall and John Barrow. The race to watch -- Barrow versus former Republican Congressman Max Burns.

KONDRACKE: This is a Kerry district in 2004 and it's 42 percent African-American.

BARNES: Yes.

KONDRACKE: So I think Barrow is going to -- has a better chance.

BARNES: It was a Kerry district. They took Athens out of it, you know, the liberal college town.

KONDRACKE: Yes, still -- it's still a Kerry district.

BARNES: Yes, though I'd -- Burns has a pretty good chance because Barrow has not bonded with the black vote there.

At 7:30 Eastern all eyes will be on Ohio. The races to watch here are the open seat in Bob Ney's district. State Senator Joy Padgett is the Republican running there. And three other Republican seats held by Steve Chabot, Jean Schmidt and Deborah Pryce. Pryce is the number four Republican in Congress.

Now, the race to watch here is Steve Chabot's in the 1st District. That's Cincinnati. The Democratic challenger is John Cranley.

KONDRACKE: Yes, well, Cranley is a city councilman in Cincinnati, well known in the district. And, as we said before in the DeWine race, the political environment is just trouble for Republicans. So, you know, the Democrats really think they have a shot at the Chabot seat, for sure.

BARNES: Yes, they do. But he's a tough guy who played football at William & Mary -- of course you knew that. And...

KONDRACKE: (UNINTELLIGIBLE).

BARNES: ... if he loses, it's going to be curtains for Republicans on election night.

OK, at 8:00 Eastern there are three key streets to watch -- Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida.

In Connecticut, there are three Republican incumbents to watch -- Rob Simmons, Chris Shays and Nancy Johnson. The race to watch here, Nancy Johnson's race in the 5th District. Her Democratic challenger is Chris Murphy, who is a pretty good challenger.

KONDRACKE: Yes. Nancy Johnson is not being polite. She's accusing her opponent of being soft on porn, soft on drug dealers...

BARNES: Right. Yes.

KONDRACKE: ... all kinds of stuff. She's waging a tough race there.

BARNES: Like a lot of moderates, she's tough and mean.

KONDRACKE: Yes.

BARNES: And they usually win.

In Pennsylvania, four Republicans face tough reelection results, which is putting it mildly. Curt Weldon, Jim Gerlach, Don Sherwood and Mike Fitzpatrick. The race to watch here and keep an eye on is Jim Gerlach's race against Democrat Lois Murphy...

KONDRACKE: Yes.

BARNES: ... who I think ran against him last time.

KONDRACKE: Yes, exactly. Yes. Gerlach beat Murphy by only 6,500 votes last time. Weldon and Sherwood are gone, and Fitzpatrick, it looks like, will lose out for the Republicans.

BARNES: Yes, well, Republicans could lose four of those. I think they'll win -- they'll lose only two. And Gerlach will win anyway.

And in Florida, finally, four GOP seats are vulnerable here, open seats vacated by Mike Fitzpatrick and Katherine Harris. Joe Negron and Vern Buchanan are the Republicans in those districts now. The seats held by Mike Bilirakis and Clay Shaw could be in trouble.

The race to watch here, the open seat in Foley's district, Republican John Negron versus Democrat Tim Mahoney. Of course, to vote for Negron, you actually have to vote for Foley, because his name is still on the ballot.

Isn't that true?

KONDRACKE: Right. But the Republicans are spending $2 million to try to say don't -- forget about Foley, vote -- vote for Foley, you get Negron. It might work.

BARNES: Oh, come on.

KONDRACKE: It actually might work.

BARNES: Oh, I...

KONDRACKE: It could work. It really could work.

BARNES: Oh, I'm dubious.

KONDRACKE: Coming up, Fred and I will put it all together in our final election night predictions. We'll tell whether the Democrats will really take over both houses of Congress.

We'll tell you after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KONDRACKE: Welcome back to THE BELTWAY BOYS.

It's the moment you've all been waiting for, our bottom line predictions for the House and the Senate.

Here we go.

In the House, I think Democrats will pick up 30 seats on Tuesday night.

Fred thinks the Democrats will pick up 22 seats.

So we both think the Democrats will take over the House.

And in the Senate, I say it's Democrats plus six seats and a take over. Fred says Democrats will pick up four seats and Republicans will remain in control of the Senate.

BARNES: That's all from THE BELTWAY BOYS this week.

---

Sponsored Links

About Us | Contact | Advertise | Privacy Policy         © RealClearPolitics 2006