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October 31, 2006

Special Report Roundtable - October 31

FOX News Special Report With Brit Hume

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JOHN KERRY (D), MASSACHUSETTS SENATOR: Education, if you make the most of it, you study hard and you do your homework and you make an effort to be smart, you can do well, if you don't, you get stuck in Iraq.

JOHN MCCAIN (R), ARIZONA SENATOR: Senator Kerry owes an apology to those Americans, and he should be grateful that we have people who are risking their lives.

KERRY: I apologize to no one for my criticism of the president, and of his broken policy.

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The members of the United States military are plenty smart. And they are plenty brave. And the senator from Massachusetts owes them an apology.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HUME: Wow. Well, John Kerry has had another moment in the sun, and perhaps not the one he wanted, and perhaps not one he expected, but there it is. Some thoughts on this now from Fred Barnes, the executive editor of the Weekly Standard; Mort Kondracke, executive editor of Roll Call; and Michael Barone, senior writer from U.S. News and World Report -- FOX NEWS contributors all.

All right, let's deal, first of all, with what he actually said. You heard the relevant passage there, too. It should be noted in fairness, but before that he had been talking about the president and Iraq and then he said being we're here to talk about education, and then he said what you heard, education and so on. Based on the meaning of his words, was he clearly criticizing the Bush administration? Or was he, based on the meaning of the words, criticizing the military troops?

MORT KONDRACKE, ROLL CALL: I think that he was criticizing the troops, but I don't think that he meant to do it, you know. I think that this was...

FRED BARNES, WEEKLY STANDARD: Are you a mind reader?

KONDRACKE: Yeah, I am a mind reader, you have to be a mind reader in this case. Look, I don't -- look, the one thing that the Democrats have learned is that you don't criticize the troops or...

HUME: Well hold it...

KONDRACKE: Or, the way that they did in the Vietnam War.

HUME: Doesn't he have some history here?

KONDRACKE: Yeah he does.

HUME: And didn't he as recently as a week ago criticize the generals and the troops for a mission in Baghdad, and hasn't he said, just to get it on the record here, didn't he also say, what was it, about a year ago or so that he said that -- oh no, two years ago he said that they're terrorizing children.

MICHAEL BARONE, U.S. NEWS AND WORLD REPORT: December '05.

HUME: Is there something -- we -- can you read his mind on those?

KONDRACKE: Yes, I think that I can, but I don't want to go back into that. Look, the Democrats, what I'm saying is that the Democrats have learned that they want to protect the troops by getting them out of there, they learned their lesson after Vietnam that you don't dump on the troops, you don't spit on them and you don't demean them and I think even Kerry knows that. I this was unconscious on his part...

BARONE: But it was his actual words...

HUME: Hold it a second.

KONDRACKE: I think in effect, in effect he was saying that the only people who would be over there are people who don't have an education. I don't think that he meant it as a demeaning remark, but it certainly comes out that way and instead of...

HUME: Should he then apologize?

KONDRACKE: Yeah, I think so. He should have said, at least he should have said, and I'll get into this later, but he should have said, look, I would never say such a thing and how dare the Republicans interpret it that way...

HUME: That's what he said.

KONDRACKE: No, no, he went further than that. This is where the strategic error came in. He said, this is more of the dirty rotten, you know, lies and stuff like that. The strategic error is that I think what America wants in a presidential candidate is a uniter, not a divider, not a polarizer and he is fighting the 2004 election all over again and he's polarizing.

BARONE: He's not just fighting the 2004 election, when you look at the little words of what he's talking about, he's saying uneducated people get stuck in Iraq. That is a matter of fact that is not true. I mean, the Heritage Report found that, you know, the educational levels are above those of the population -- the age group of population, generally.

This was true in the Vietnam era where you had military draft and college deferments and if you dropped out of college you could get drafted and get stuck, to use Kerry's word, in Vietnam. So he's rehearsing arguments that he's been making for 35 years, here. He's out of touch with what the military is saying today, the obvious meaning of his words was something that was derogatory about the character and quality of the troops and inaccurately derogatory. So, of course, he should have apologized for that and if he could make a plausible claim that he misspoke, he should have done that.

HUME: He did say, just to be fair about this, he did call it a "botched joke" about the Bush administration.

BARNES: What was the joke?

HUME: Well, there was a ripple of laughter in the audience after he made the comment about, you know, if you don't do your homework and you're not smart, you get stuck in Iraq.

BARNES: If it was a botched joke, what did he mean to say?

HUME: Well, I think he meant to say that this dummy, George Bush, who didn't do his homework on the Mideast, got stuck in Iraq.

BARONE: Well, George Bush got higher grades at Yale than Kerry, but we'll leave that aside.

BARNES: You know, one, the words are pretty plain and so I think he was referring to the troops, there. But when he came to the press conference and he was so over the top, you know, the first thing that came to my mind is Lady Macbeth, she protest too much. You know all he -- it was so easy to diffuse the thing and yet he goes into the high (INAUDIBLE) and is accusing the Republican Party and the Bush and all of these people...

KONDRACKE: That's 2004 all over again. He thinks...

BARNES: So what? Mort, I'm talking about 2004 and 2008, this is 2006...

HUME: I know, but the fact -- but isn't it mainly the case here that what happened that the Kerry camp and those who supported it believe that their failure to respond early and often and strongly enough to the Swift Boat Veteran's for Truth ads back in 2004 cost him the election? They believe that.

BARNES: Well no, I don't think they do believe that. They say that, they don't believe it. They knew John Kerry could not answer questions on the whole -- on this whole period in Vietnam.

BARONE: And, remember, the real problem he had was that 1971, the statements before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee when he charged the troops at all levels were committing criminal acts or acts of -- against the laws of war, acting like Genghis Khan, as he called it -- as he called him.

I must say, if I had been a Kerry political advisor, one of the things I would have advised him to do in `03 was choose a veteran's venue and apologize for those remarks which are really the motivating thing that set John O'Neil off to organizing the Swift Boat Veterans' group. So he was arguing about the past.

In 2006, I think that the effect of this is that it's going to gin up the enthusiasm of the Republican base because they're seeing a figure there that they deeply dislike, they're seeing him make what are on their face inaccurate charges that are slanderous of the military and he's slandered them in the past as you noted, in '05, he said that the American soldiers were terrorizing kids and children and breaking historical customs and religions...

HUME: You thought this could have an affect on outcome of this election?

BARONE: He sees -- too often, he sees the American troops, not as heroes, but as victims or perpetrators.

HUME: Do you think this might have an impact on the outcome of the election?

BARONE: I think this might have effect on increasing enthusiasm of the Republican base, slightly demoralizing the Democratic base. Huffington Post postings, seems to suggest the...

HUME: That's the Liberal blog.

BARONE: Liberal blog.

KONDRACKE: I don't think that this has a lasting effect on this campaign. I think -- I think it damages Kerry a lot because it speaks of what he's all about. He is charging that everything that a Republican ever says about him is a smear and that's his theme song and that's not going to play in 2008.

BARNES: No play. I think it'll hurt some in 2006 for exactly the reason that Mike said. This will fire up the Republican base, not the Democratic base.

HUME: Now, let's just talk about this for one quick second. Where does this go from here? Just about every Republican voice that could have weighed in weighed in today, from John McCain to all the leaders on the House side in the Republican Party. The major talk show figures -- Rush Limbaugh was all over this today. Tony has spoken, the president has now spoken. What gives this story any life after today?

BARNES: A lot depends on the media, if the media thinks that Kerry ought to apologize. If they do, well then, has he apologized today? Well what about tomorrow? Is he going to apologize tomorrow?

BARONE: I think it's a fair question to ask Democratic candidates if they agree with this statement by their party's nominee for president in 2004. Not a peripheral figure, but a central figure.

HUME: Republican Curt Weldon, the House member from Pennsylvania is already demanding that his opponent, Sestak apologize.

KONDRACKE: The smart Democrats will all tow the party line, which is, that the troops are wonderful and they ought to be brought home. That's their theme.

HUME: Well, when we come back -- when we come back with our panel, we'll discuss what Congressional Quarterly of today's polls are telling us about who may control the Congress next year. Stay tuned.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

HUME: The non-partisan research general Congressional Quarterly has released its final projections for the 2006 mid-term elections and they go as follows: Democrats are now ahead in 210 House races, nine more than the number of seats they now hold. A total of 18 seats, says C.Q. are considered toss-ups without a clear favorite. So, Democrats will have to win only eight of those races to gain control. Republicans will have to win 11 of those toss-up seats to keep the majority.

In the Senate Republicans are expected to hold 49 seat, the Democrats are predicted to hold 48 with the balance being among only three toss-up seat.

Back with our panel now. Let's go through your take on your take on where C.Q. is and where you are.

Michael, you keep track of this stuff as closely as anyone. What do you think?

BARONE: I would be in a slightly different position than C.Q. C.Q.'s ratings tend to be sort of conservative in that they are reluctant to see incumbents as being endangered -- more reluctant than some of the other raters like Stewart, Roth, and Burncoose (ph), predicting Democrats gains of as much as 40 seats, I believe, and so forth.

I think that the, you know, if the election were held today, the Democrats would probably win a narrow House majority. I think there's -- I rate a lot of other seats, you know, last week I said a gain of 16. I looked at that again, I'd be about the same place event though some seats, in my view, are gone one way and some seats are going another way and I'm surely wrong about some of them. But I think there is another 19 or 20 seat that are held by the Republicans that are in danger...

HUME: That are in jeopardy.

BARONE: That are in jeopardy, that could plausibly go to the Democrats based on what we know today. I think there are very few Democratic seats that are in that position. Republicans are looking at targeting five, probably the best one they have is Georgia 12, where I believe President Bush was yesterday.

KONDRACKE: Yeah, I agree with the point that C.Q. is conservative. They are counting, as toss-ups for example, New York -- I forget which number it is 24, I guess it is, the Sherri Bowler open seat which most everybody counts as a probable Democratic win and Pennsylvania 10 Don Sherwood, I think everybody, Republican...

HUME: They say that's a toss-up?

KONDRACKE: They call it a toss-up and everybody that I know, on both sides, says that Sherwood is going. Similarly, you know, North Carolina 11, Charlie Taylor...

HUME: Charles Taylor.

KONDRACKE: You know, is in trouble. The Iowa open seat, the Nussle seat, the Nay seat in Ohio they count as a toss-up. So, you know, most everybody I know thinks that we're -- you know, on the edge of 15 seats and a lot of people...

HUME: And we're interested in what do you think, Mort?

KONDRACKE: Well, what I think is, I've been saying 25. I mean, I think they're...

HUME: Twenty-five Democrats pick up...

KONDRACKE: Democrats...

HUME: Senate?

KONDRACKE: Five. Five...

HUME: Just short of what they need.

KONDRACKE: Just short of what they need.

HUME: Fred?

BARNES: You know, I was as surprised as Mike was, C.Q. said 21 Democratic seats are at play. No they aren't. I mean, I can only think of five.

HUME: In other words Democrat seats where Republicans at least have a fighting chance of a pick-up.

BARNES: Yeah. You know, there're really contesting them and they're competitive and so on. There are these five and Republicans are behind in all of those. So, I don't know what they were talking about and I'm with Mike and Mort, well, I don't know if I'm where Mort is, I think -- you know, and everybody, Republican and Democratic pollsters and strategists and so on they all pretty much agree it's around 15, 16, 18, 20, somewhere in there, they're in the bag for Democrats.

HUME: Except the fact that you've got two pretty respected, pretty neutral guys Stuart Rothenberg and Charlie Cook, who -- and I've heard Charlie Cook on the subject, he's quite good on this. They think this --- their view is if it were today, we're talking dozens.

BARNES: Yeah, well, it's not tonight and you know they can be wrong. I respect both of them, but I think they are a little on the high side this time.

KONDRACKE: Well, they're operating on the wave theory that this is another tsunami in the making and so they're...

HUME: Do you see that?

KONDRACKE: I think there is a wave, but it's being broken, to some extent, by Republican "Get Out the Vote," Republican money, and gerrymandering, so that's why I'm saying -- not saying 30 or 35, I'm saying 25.

HUME: So, you think there's a wave, but there is a breakwater.

KONDRACKE: Yeah.

BARONE: Yeah, Charlie Cook is relying, in part, on the new polling from R.T. Strategies, which I think is associated with him and their polling has shown Republicans in danger of losing more -- behind in more seats than most of the other polling for non-partisan polling. So, if you go with that kind of polling, you would see a wave as Charlie does.

HUME: Quickly.

BARNES: Yeah, even Democrats have warned me off that R.T. poll...

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