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October 25, 2006

Special Report Roundtable - October 25

FOX News Special Report With Brit Hume

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We're wining and we will win unless we leave before the job is done. It's tough for a reason, because people understand the stakes of success in Iraq. And my mission -- my point to the American people is that we're constantly adjusting our tactics to achieve victory.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HUME: That was the president today at a news conference in the East Room called at the -- sort of the last minute at the beginning of which he made a 15-minute statement, that's long folks, for a pre-news conference, or pre-questioning statement on Iraq.

Some thoughts on all of this from Fred Barnes, executive editor of the Weekly Standard; Mort Kondracke, executive editor of Roll Call; and Mara Liasson national political correspondent of National Public Radio -- FOX NEWS contributors all.

The president talks about Iraq all the time, some think he'd be better off talking about something else because the issue is one that's a burden on his party's candidates. Is he making any headway on this? Does this kind of event help? Did this one help? What --Fred.

FRED BARNES, WEEKLY STANDARD: Well, that's hard to know whether it helped or not if you're talking about the election campaign. Look, Iraq's out there. I think the president should go ahead and talk about it if there's something to say about it and there were things to say today.

I mean, Republican candidates are getting attacked on the issue and the president's defense may help them a little bit. But we'll know on November 7. I thought he did have something important to say today and it was about Prime Minister Maliki. It was in sort of -- he didn't say it in so many words but what the problem is, they want Maliki, one, to crack down on the militias and death squads and two, to reach some grand compromise with the Sunnis and he's holding back.

I mean, here he -- I mean on the a -- on the death squads, on the one hand, he says we're going to crack down on them. That's what Maliki said today at his press conference in Baghdad, we're going to crack down and we know they're threatening stability or creating instability and so on.

On the other hand, he seems to be defending al Sadr whose Mahdi army is filled with these death squads. Maliki has to decide once and for all, and soon, whether he's going to be a national leader or a sectarian leader. Right now he is a sectarian leader.

MORT KONDRACKE, ROLL CALL: Maliki did the president no favors today. I mean, the president was stalwart in his defense of Maliki who has been under all kinds of criticism from the United States and both critics and supporters of the war, and he said, you know, that this guy has a tough job, et cetera, et cetera. So meanwhile over in Iraq, Maliki is saying -- is denouncing a raid, Iraqi plus U.S. raid in Sadr City, which is Muqtada al Sadr headquarters and also saying that these benchmarks that our ambassador there has worked out are all election year stuff in the United States.

You know, I mean the president is valiant in his defense of this policy and I think he had to have a press conference today, because they've stopped using the term "stay the course," and the press has been talking guffawing about this to say, to say the least, and the enemies have been attacking, "Ah-ha, they're admitting that they're not going to stay the course." Well, he had to have this press conference to explain that he.

HUME: So, you knew it was coming even before it was announced.

KONDRACKE: Well, no, no, but I think he should have had the press conference because he was getting killed with the departure from "stay the course" and he had to explain that we are not leaving.

MARA LIASSON, NATIONAL PUBLIC RADIO: Look, the problem is that, as Fred said, he's trying to put pressure on Maliki and he said, at one point, "the patience of the Americans is not unlimited." OK, well what happens, if, as is happening now, Maliki isn't doing what the U.S. wants him to do? There is no "or else."

HUME: Well wait a minute. Is today the case that Maliki refusing simply refusing to do what the administration believes he should do, in which he is even said to acknowledge he must do, or is it a case where Maliki doesn't want to sound like he's buckling?

LIASSON: I think he's not doing it. I don't know if it's whether he's unable or unwilling, but he's not doing it and there is no "or else." The president said two things that are contradictions, he said on one hand it's our job to prevent a civil war there, on the other hand he said we're not going to be in the crossfire, we're not going be in the middle of sectarian violence. Well preventing a civil war means being in the crossfire. I don't know what else it means. And it sounds like.

HUME: No, I think it means if we prevent civil war then there's no crossfire to be in.

LIASSON: Yes, but there's crossfire right now and you've got to put a stop to that. And if we're going to stay there until we have victory, yet our patience is not unlimited, what does that mean?

KONDRACKE: Look, there's on thing.

BARNES: It means Maliki needs to act and act fast.

LIASSON: Well, what if he doesn't?

BARNES: OK, well, what if he doesn't? Then we have a huge problem...

LIASSON: We have a problem now.

BARNES: We have a problem now, but it conceivably could get worse. I don't think the president was responding to "stay the course" nonsense.

KONDRACKE: Of course he was.

BARNES: That wasn't hurting at all. What he was responding to was what happened in Baghdad the day before. And Maliki's, I don't know whether it's intragagence (ph) and look Brit, you're right, I mean, you were suggesting he has a political problem at home. He doesn't want to be seen as a guy who's being led around by the ear by some American general or American ambassador there and he's not. And that's fine. Look, whatever he says, he can say whatever he wants about the United States, but if he acts at the same time and does the right things, we'll ignore it.

LIASSON: Right, but he's not doing that.

KONDRACKE: You know the one.

HUME: Now wait a minute, let's ask -- let's get some perspective here. How long has he been in office? You don't know the answer I'll tell you.

KONDRACKE: Five months.

HUME: Less than six months.

LIASSON: Less than six months except that we keep on hearing from the ambassador and others that they've got six months.

KONDRACKE: You know, but the.

LIASSON: Until the end of the year.

KONDRACKE: But the question is.

BARNES: Peaceful happy valley over there. He's got to act fast. I don't care how long he has been in.

KONDRACKE: There has to be a national reconciliation or else civil war will take place.

HUME: When we come back with our panel, we'll look at how Democrats view the House races, what the president said, and how the races are shaping up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. CHARLES SCHUMER (D-NY), DEM SEN CAMPAIGN CHMN: The Republican candidates have nowhere to turn. They're -- it's as though they're in a little room where all the exits are locked. The foreign policy door is locked, the domestic policy door is locked, and now because of the Foley scandal, the values door is locked as well.

BUSH: They've it all figured out. And they just -- as I said, they're dancing in the end zone, they just hadn't scored the touchdown, Mark. You know? There's a lot to -- a lot of time left.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HUME: Well, there isn't a lot of time left, it's less then two weeks, but there is some time left, as the president said and after all, he's -- a lot of things happen in the closing weeks of a campaign and we're in them now. So, some thoughts on all this now.

Let's talk a little bit about the president's apparent optimism or at least his fighting spirit anyway, as affects the House which, where the Republicans are -- appear to be in the greatest jeopardy. Is there any reason to believe that things are any better than they seemed to be a week ago -- Fred.

BARNES: Maybe a little bit, particularly the Senate races and I think it look more likes George Allen's pulling.

HUME: What about the House?

BARNES: Well, in the House it's about the same, I think. I don't think Democrats have any particular momentum, but they don't need a whole lot of momentum now, because they've built up some leads in House races. I mean the ones -- I was out in Indiana yesterday -- Indiana eight (ph), which is Evansville and Terre Haute, are both in it and the congressman there is John Hostettler.

Now, he was first elected in `94 and he's kind of an odd bird, because he doesn't raise much money. He told President Bush not to come in and he's running against Brad Ellsworth, you see there, is a conservative Democrat -- pro-life, pro-gun, anti-gay marriage, he's the only Democrat I know who had signed Grover Norquist's "I'll never raise taxes" pledge and he is going to be hard to beat.

You know, there was one of these totally unreliable polls that Mort likes so much, in that district showing Hostettler losing by about 20 points. Somehow he has won elections over the years running like this. It's going to be hard this year, though, and he is -- I think he's No. 1 on a number of people's most vulnerable incumbent list.

HUME: But the Republicans can afford to lose the No. 1 and No. 2 all the way up to the number 14.

LIASSON: But they can't lose more than 15.

HUME: Yeah, they can't lose more than 15. So., what about it?

KONDRACKE: Our friend Michael Barone has a ranking and he gets to 16 lean Democratic seats that are now held by Republicans, so that he's over the top. But people.

HUME: But that's lean, right?

KONDRACKE: What? That's lean.

BARNES: He thinks they're going to win 21 seats.

KONDRACKE: Look, a lot of things -- things could change, but look, the top Republicans that I've talked to say that you could -- out of Indiana, which has three Republican seats that are vulnerable, and Ohio, which has three, you could afford to lose three total, and you can maybe lose four and hold the House, but you can't lose five.

Now, the Indiana seats look as though -- the three Indiana seats, Hostettler, Chocola and Sodrel look like they're going to go and so you can lose one or two only in Ohio and you're lost the Nay seat -- Bob Nay involved in the Abramoff scandal -- that seat's gone, so that's four, and then the question becomes Deborah Pryce who's the leader of the House and has troubles with the Foley scandal, because she is a leader, and right now she's up -- no, she's down actually in Democratic polls by about two.

So, you know, what the leading Republicans that I've talked to say, that if they lose five seats out of those six that you can just figure that they're going to lose a lot of seats in Connecticut, a lot of seats in Pennsylvania, a lot of seats in New York.

LIASSON: Look, and even though, you know, President Bush was right, there are a lot of Democrats who are, as he said, "measuring the drapes," there was a lot of kind of inflated optimism about the numbers. When you talk to people at the Democratic campaign committees and compare them against the White House estimates of the range of seats they're going to pick up, they're not that different. They are in the high teens or the low 20's, but I think that Democrats who are.

HUME: White House has it 12 to 16.

LIASSON: Twelve to 16 and I would say Democrats might be a little bit more, but you don't hear Democrats who are really steeped in this stuff predicting the kind of 30, 40-seat pickup that you hear kind of bandied about, but....

BARNES: It.

HUME: The must important question is, how much of this poll disadvantage can be offset by the turnout operation, which appears to be from what we know about it, a larger effort even than was made two years ago?

(CROSSTALK)

BARNES: Polls don't tell you much about turnout. They really don't and so if you have a great turnout operation, you can thwart the polls.

LIASSON: And also, look.

HUME: Quickly, quickly.

LIASSON: We know Democrats are more enthusiastic, we know Republicans can get out the vote and the Washington Post poll of Independents show that twice as many Independents are being contacted by the Republicans than the Democrats, that tells you something.

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