October Surprise (And a Leadership Demise?)

One sign that a party is heading downhill is when it literally gives away seats in Congress. In 1994, the Democrats did so. Twelve years later, the Republicans are following suit.

Democrats seemed capable of just about one thing in 1994: hemorrhaging seats in Congress. Powerful Illinois Rep. Dan Rostenkowski (D) blew it in a district typically safe for his party after his indictment in a check kiting scandal, Nevada Rep. James Bilbray (D) was felled after it was revealed days before the election that his aide stood to profit millions from lands legislation he had sponsored, and Democrats frittered away more open seats than we care to count by clumsily nominating the weaker (and typically the more liberal) of two candidates in primaries. After all the wreckage had been surveyed, Democrats had lost a grand total of 54 seats, more than enough to forfeit their House majority.

From the perspective of one month out from Election Day, it's difficult to imagine how Republicans could suffer losses in a range anywhere near what Democrats suffered twelve years ago. But it's still a familiar picture: this year, the GOP has been giving away seats in Congress as if they were extra pairs of upper-deck Washington Nationals tickets. Ohio GOP Rep. Bob Ney's fall from grace and eventual withdrawal gave the weak Democratic nominee in his district an opportunity as wide as a barn door. Former Majority Whip Tom DeLay's fumbled timing of withdrawal from his Texas race left his party with a write-in candidate whose name is difficult to spell and Democrats with a distinct edge. And Republicans in southern Arizona nominated a fire-and-brimstone conservative over a moderate state legislator in the district currently held by GOP Rep. Jim Kolbe, virtually ending their hopes of retaining the seat against the strong Democratic nominee.

The latest free gift for Democrats in the Sunshine State, of course, tops them all. And what an ironic gift: in 1994, the crowning achievement that added the exclamation point to Republicans' romp to power was upstart George Nethercutt's toppling of Democratic House Speaker Tom Foley in his eastern Washington district. Twelve years later, another Foley is (as we can all agree, thankfully) out of his job, and though he did not hold the speaker's gavel, his name might well come to memorialize Speaker Hastert's downfall, if such a downfall comes to pass as either the result of resignation or the election. In the Crystal Ball's estimation, a leadership shakeup is much more likely to happen than not when the odds of those two possibilities are combined; the ongoing Republican free-for-all in the wake of scandal seriously threatens not only Hastert but GOP election efforts.

When the Crystal Ball warned of an "October Surprise" in last week's article, no one apart from those who knew of Florida ex-Rep. Mark Foley's horrendous transgressions had any idea that a scandal of such salaciousness and with such power to enrapture voters could break. But it did, and the disturbing truth couldn't have exploded at a worse time for congressional Republicans. If Democrats ride a tsunami to massive victories and operational control of Congress in November, we now know what tectonic unrest will have fomented its swift and violent propagation across an already stormy sea.

And what a difference a week makes! Just when it seemed like Republicans were catching a few breaks in the run-up to October, the congressional page scandal joined leaked reports of poor progress in Iraq and Bob Woodward's portrayal of the President Bush as a clueless war wager to deliver Bush and Republicans their worst, most catastrophic week of 2006 (and yes, it may be somewhat sad commentary on the state of both the media and the public's news sensibilities that the latter two items have received much lower billing.) So can it only go up from here for Republicans? Unfortunately for the GOP, we believe things could get even uglier in the coming weeks, but let's first assess some of the damage left behind in the wake of this October Surprise:

* In an election year that could see the switch of just fifteen seats flip control of House and six seats flip control of the Senate, the gravity of any seat's instant three-column jump (in this case, from "Likely Republican" to "Leans Democratic") cannot be understated. Under an unusual legal precedent set two years ago by courts to resolve a withdrawal situation in a neighboring district, Florida Republicans find themselves in a serious rut in Foley's newly vacant 16th District: Foley's severely tarnished name must remain on the ballot, even if his votes will be counted towards the replacement nominee. Automatically, Democratic businessman Tim Mahoney is the favorite to win the seat over GOP State Rep. Joe Negron in November, and plenty of Republicans will admit that their best shot of winning the district again will present itself in 2008. So for Democrats, how much distance lies between needing 14 and 15 seats to take control of the House? Well, the fifteenth seat was always the hardest to win, and it may have just been thrown into their column earlier than anyone expected.

* Second and even more devastating for the GOP, "Foley-Gate" holds the potential to incur ancillary electoral casualties because it revives the themes of corruption and scandal that Democrats had struggled mightily to bring to the fore throughout the last two years. Democratic campaign chieftains had always attacked a lack of "transparency" in GOP management of the executive and legislative branches, but the prospect of a cover-up related to the page scandal will surely renew and resuscitate an avenue of attack that had alternately lain dormant and failed to take hold. Suddenly, NRCC Chair and upstate New York GOP Rep. Tom Reynolds could find himself in the political fight of his life over the classic question "what he knew and when," and Page Board co-Chair GOP Rep. John Shimkus could find himself in a similar predicament in Illinois if reports of his knowledge prove true. There's yet another likely casualty whose political danger has not been mentioned frequently because its source is indirect: Pennsylvania GOP Rep. Don Sherwood, whose own personal scandal involving allegations he choked his mistress is sure to be brought into even higher relief by Foley-Gate in his conservative-minded seat.

* Third, the poorly hidden bickering and finger-pointing within the ranks of the top Republican leadership in the House will harm the GOP's election prospects to the extent that it persists. The key question: will any members of the Republican caucus (besides usual suspects such as Connecticut's Christopher Shays) call for Speaker Dennis Hastert's resignation this week? Will any members seek "permission" to do so as they desperately seek to right their unsteady campaign ships in tough reelection battles? If the chorus grows loud enough, Hastert--who has looked utterly dumbfounded by the charges of not doing enough about Foley's malfeasance--may have no other choice but to surrender the gavel to someone else prior to November balloting in order for the party to restore unity and save face. Majority Leader John Boehner may also come under fire from the old elements in the party that supported others in the not-so-long-ago race for the position, and the GOP's circular firing squad could quickly grow in numbers, a prospect the party simply cannot afford as it is. Perhaps the worst victim of infighting will be the National Republican Campaign Committee, headed by Reynolds. What if disunity threatens other party leaders' ability to help target races? What if Reynolds becomes so endangered in his home district that he can no longer effectively lead his party's drive to hang on to the House majority? It's a true party nightmare, and historically, it's one telltale manifestation of an oncoming killer wave.

On American history's long list of sensational political scandal, the Foley name will eventually be entered prominently below those such as Mills, Hart, Robb, Packwood, Condit, and McGreevey. But the fall-out from the tawdriest scandal to rock Washington in years leaves us with many questions as we enter the final month of the campaign season. For now we'll ask just one, and we're very curious as to the answer: what will the November surprise be?