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| In Today's Video Vault | |
| Grassley Swings at (and Misses) Obama | |
| Richardson's Interview | |
| This Just In.... |
| In Defense Of Incrementalism | |
| The War Comes Home | |
| Roe, Not Giuliani, Is The Real Abortion Muddle | |
| Rudy's Party Or Reagan's? | |
| Blair's Influence To Outlast His Iraq Stand |
| Problem-Solving Trumps Polarization | |
| Voters Want Ideas, Not Ideology | |
| Conservatism After the Thumping | |
| 2006: A Very Strange Year in Politics | |
| Democrat Victory, Conservative Gain? |
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October 21, 2006
Carried Away by Talk of a 'Wave'
By Tom BevanDire. Bleak. Grim. Those are just a few of the adjectives that have been used to describe the election prospects of Republicans just 18 days from now. So is it really that bad for the elephants this year? The answer is "yes" - and "no."
On one hand, some Republican strategists acknowledge that if the election were held today there is a good chance their party would lose control of the House of Representatives to the Democrats. The picture is only slightly less depressing for Republicans on the Senate side: right now the GOP is staring at a loss of four to six seats, which is the difference between just barely hanging onto the majority and just barely losing it.
On the other hand, talk of a huge Democratic "wave" election remains premature, if not a bit overblown. Some are suggesting this year is shaping up to be a Democratic blowout similar to the one Republicans enjoyed in 1994 when they picked up fifty-two seats and captured control of the House. So far, despite the fact that Republicans are actively defending a larger set of seats than they were a few weeks ago, the evidence available at the moment simply doesn't bear out talk of a forty or fifty-seat swing to the Democrats.
That being said, there are still two and half weeks left until Election Day, so things may indeed get worse for Republicans. Or they might get better. One thing to remember is that eighteen days is an eternity in politics. If you don't believe me, consider that just twenty-one days ago most Americans had never heard the name Mark Foley. And just nine days ago Kim Jong Il and North Korea grabbed the world's attention by testing a nuke. The point is that things can, and almost always do change quickly in politics - especially in today's 24/7 new media environment.
The other thing to remember is that for many people around the country who do not follow politics very closely, the election has only recently gotten underway. Both Republicans and Democrats will be blanketing the airwaves with ads and pouring every last dollar into mobilizing their supporters in the final two weeks.
The heart of the question is whether Republican voters are really as depressed and fractured as the media has portrayed them to be over the last few weeks. If they are, and they decide to sit on their hands this election, then November 7 could indeed turn to out to be a very bad night for the GOP.
But if Republican voters aren't that depressed or, perhaps more likely, if they are disgruntled at the moment for one reason or another but decide in the final days that the alternative to not voting (i.e. having Speaker Nancy Pelosi two heart beats away from the Presidency) is worse, then GOP losses this cycle might not be so severe.
Right now, you can find signs pointing both directions. Adding to the uncertainty is that voter sentiment is a tricky thing to measure and polls may or may not be accurately capturing the potential effectiveness of the Republican get-out-the-vote effort. Many of the most hotly contested House races are in Republican-leaning districts, so even a slight rise or dip in turnout may end up being decisive.
Historically, the sixth-year midterm of a two-term administration is always an uphill battle for the party in power, and it's certainly true Republicans carry some additional burdens into this cycle - not the least of which is an increasingly unpopular war in Iraq.
Given the current political environment, probably the best case scenario for Republicans this year is that they manage to limit losses to twelve to fourteen seats in the House and perhaps three or four seats in the Senate, clinging to bare majorities in both chambers. President Bush, Vice President Cheney, and political guru Karl Rove have all suggested in recent days they are optimistic about the chances of doing exactly that.
Many dismissed their comments as unrealistically optimistic and blatant spin. Maybe so. But right now the chances of Republicans maintaining control of the House and Senate seem equally as good as (if not slightly better than) the predictions of some that Democrats will rack up gains of forty plus seats in the House. As I said, a lot can still change over the next eighteen days when Americans finally go out and conduct the only poll that matters.
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