September 06, 2006
Pennsylvania Senate Race
RealClearPolitics Election Analysis
The good news for Santorum in the Morning Call poll is he has closed Casey's lead to single digits; the bad news is he can't get his head-to-head number over 40%. One ofSantorum's problems is his horserace numbers appear to mirror his job approval numbers (in the Morning Call poll they are both at 39%.) That's a big problem for the incumbent, given that he is unlikely to see his job approval get back above 50% before election day.
From Santorum's standpoint, a six-point race is certainly better than the 18-pt Quinnipiac poll back in June, but he needs to get his head-to-head numbers with Casey closer to 45%, rather than 40%, to really get back in the game.
