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September 09, 2006

Hot Stories: Never Forget, First Take on '06

Beltway Boys

FRED BARNES, "WEEKLY STANDARD": Coming up on "The Beltway Boys," "You Decide 2006" kicks into high gear. We'll handicap the hot races, and give you our predictions on the balance of power.

MORT KONDRACKE, "ROLL CALL": Plus (ph), fifth anniversary of 9/11 is just days away, and President Bush and the GOP are sharpening their message in the war on terror.

BARNES: Democrats come up with a homeland security plan of their own, and say Donald Rumsfeld has got to go.

KONDRACKE: And Tony, we hardly knew you: the fallout from Tony Blair's upcoming resignations.

BARNES: "The Beltway Boys" are next, right after the headlines.

(NEWSBREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: We learned the lessons of September the 11th. We're changing how people can work together. We're modernizing the system. We're working to connect the dots to stop the terrorists from hurting America again.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KONDRACKE: I'm Mort Kondracke.

BARNES: And I'm Fred Barnes, and we're "The Beltway Boys."

KONDRACKE: Well, the "Hot Story" is "Never Forget."

For most Americans, the fifth anniversary of 9/11 is a - an occasion for solemn memorials. And that includes the president, giving an - an address, a perfectly appropriate address on the anniversary on - on Monday. However, in the lead-up, and I'm afraid the aftermath of the - of the 9/11 anniversary, the politicians have seized the whole thing, and trying - and trying to make points in - in advance of the election.

Here are two ads that are run by basically pro-defense groups, which take the Bush side of this argument. Watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, AD)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Since 9/11, most Americans know the world is a dangerous place. Islamic terrorists hate us for who we are and what we stand for. Some people seem to think, however, that if we retreat, our terrorists enemies will leave us alone.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, AD)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Now we have narrowly another 9/11, using proven surveillance that some would stop. The war on terror is a war for our country's freedom, security and survival.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(CROSSTALK)

KONDRACKE: So - so - so now here's the response to that kind of thing, as administered here by Harry Reid, the Democratic Senate leader. Watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. HARRY REID (D-NV), MINORITY LEADER: This White House has proven incapable of doing the job. And rather than acknowledge their mistakes, they use fear, fear, fear and more fear as a national-security policy.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KONDRACKE: Now I agree with the Democrats that the Bush administration is trying to lay it frap (ph) when the president comes up with legislation on military tribunals and says to - to the Senate - to the Congress, Pass it three weeks, and anybody who gets out of line on this issue, you know, is going to be deemed weak on - weak on - on terrorism.

On the other hand, this fear, fear, fear from the - from the Democrat suggests that there's nothing to be afraid of. When - as that - one of those ads pointed out, we just dodged another 9/11 with these - with the - the uncovering of this London bomb plot. And the Democrats for their side, use fear, fear, fear itself. Otherwise why would they be saying that the president isn't spending enough money on - on port security? The president is not spending enough money on first responders.

The fact is that there ought to be some unity around this, around the 9/11 anniversary the way there used to be. And - but the Democrats just have this attitude that anything Bush is for, they're against. And anything Bush is against, they're for. And the - the country cannot operate this way in the - in the - in this - this is a long war. And we ought to get together on it.

BARNES: Well, we're going to have to muddle through.

Look, the Democrats have a reason for proposing all this - all this stuff: they want to avoid 2002, when - when they quibbled over - they - they took up some labor-union quibbles about the new Department of Homeland Security, and they got clobbered in the election, and - as a result of that. So now they're proposing something.

My problem with what they're proposing is it's all this defensive stuff: first responders, guards around nuclear facilities. It's all the stuff that's mostly been done, when what we need are - need is an offensive campaign. You know, there needs to be an offense and defense.

KONDRACKE: Yes, I think that..

(CROSSTALK)

BARNES: Offense is where you go in and you break up these plots before - before they're actually carried out. That's what needs to happen.

And Democrats instead spend all this time trying to weaken the offensive tools - you know, NSA surveillance and the Patriot Act and all those things. And - and that for one thing, is not good politics.

Now 9/11 was the Pearl Harbor of the 21st century. I mean, this was the first major attack of the Islamic jihadists on Western civilization, and - and - and particularly the United States. And so when - when Bush talks about 9/11, as will obviously Monday night, Democrats shouldn't grit their teeth. I mean, this was an attack on America. Even when Bush appears on television, and it obviously helps him politically. They shouldn't get mad about that.

And they shouldn't keep saying all this stuff about Usama bin Laden being on the loose. He's not on the loose; he's stuck in a cave in Afghanistan or Pakistan. But on the loose is what thousands of Islamic jihadists are, and they need to be stopped.

KONDRACKE: Right.

Now, on this - this political strategy leading up to the election, the Democrats - what the Democrats plan to do is to basically seek cover behind Republicans who are going to slow down and - and at least amend what Bush wants on the military tribunal legislation. That is, John McCain and John Warner and Lindsey Graham and Chuck Hagel and people - people like that.

But the Democrats, I think, are really vulnerable on the issue of NSA terrorist surveillance, where - where they are going to try to inhibit the United States from being able to listen on foreign phone calls into the United States, claiming that we're - that we're - this is domestic spying.

On the other hand, the - the bottom line is that this is not 2002, and the difference is Iraq of course. And September 11 will be over in people's minds, unfortunately, shortly after September 11. And I'm afraid that there's going to be a lot of bad pictures leading up to November 7.

BARNES: Yes, no doubt there will. But I think, you know, Iraq, the war on terror, 9/11, it's all the same: fighting terrorist around the world - ones who want the worst to happen to the United States.

Mort, I have no advance knowledge, but you touched on one of the things we're - we're sure to see in Republican ads are a number of Democrats attacking the NSA eavesdropping. You're doing to see those ads. I think you'll also see Harry Reid when he came up and said, We've killed the Patriot Act! Remember that? Big mistake.

And you'll see Nancy Pelosi in Republicans as well. She's of course the House Democratic leader. You'll see her saying how much she agrees with John Murtha, who was calling immediate withdrawal of troops. Well, redeployment, in the euphemism Democrats use, from Iraq. And they're going to get pounded on those things, and I think it's going to hurt them.

KONDRACKE: OK, coming up, we will take a look at the hottest races in this campaign season, and we'll make our early predictions on the balance of power in Congress. "Hot Story" number two is straight ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BARNES: Welcome back to "The Beltway Boys."

"Hot Story" number two: "First Take." At least our first take, very preliminary, on the midterm congressional election on November 7. So let's take a look at what we think are the top 5 races in the House and the Senate.

First, the House. Right now, Republicans have 231 seats; Democrats 201. There's one independent who caucuses with the Democrats, and two vacancies. Democrats need 15 seats to take control in that chamber.

Here are the top 5 races to watch.

Pennsylvania's 6th District: Republican incumbent Jim Gerlach versus Democratic challenger Lois Murphy. This is a classic swing district, and Gerlach's a good candidate, a good incumbent. I think he'll win.

KONDRACKE: Well, there are three actually - or maybe even four Republican seats in Pennsylvania up for grabs. This is - I think this is the most endangered of them. You know, this could be the wipeout of the - the northern - Northeast Republican moderates, the way 2000 - 1994 was the wipeout of Southern conservative Democrats.

BARNES: Well, they need some of those moderates to be in the majority.

All right. Next is Indiana's 9th District: Republican incumbent Mike Sodrel versus Democratic challenger Baron Hill. Sodrel is the vulnerable Democratic - Republican incumbent, and Baron Hill had the job before he did. It looks like Hill's the winner.

KONDRACKE: This is a 59 percent Bush district. It ought to be easy for Sodrel to win. There are also three seats in Indiana that if the Republicans lose, I think they're going to - they'll lose the House.

BARNES: If Sodrel wins, it'll be a Republican year.

New Mexico 1st District pits Republican incumbent Heather Wilson against Democratic challenger Patricia Madrid. This is Albuquerque, which is Democratic, but Heather Wilson has gotten through before easily. She will again.

KONDRACKE: Yes. I - I think Heather Wilson's going to win. She's an independent person, and she can attract Democrats.

BARNES: All right. Ohio's 15th District features the race between Republican incumbent Deborah Pryce, who's in the Republican leadership, and Democratic challenger Mary Jo Kilroy.

You know, being in the leadership, and it's been a tough race in a horrible state for Republicans - Ohio - doesn't help.

` KONDRACKE: Yes. Kilroy though is - is pretty left. I mean, she's, you know, been in anti-war vigils - vigils. On the other hand, Columbus has a National Guard unit which has been really shattered by casualties in - in Iraq.

BARNES: All right. We'll call that a tossup.

KONDRACKE: Yes.

BARNES: And Texas' 17th District features a vulnerable Democratic incumbent, Chet Edwards, versus Republican challenger Van Taylor.

Edwards is, you know, the one Democrat who escaped the DeLay reapportionment of Texas and - but he - but he's got a much stronger candidate in Van Taylor this year. Edwards may be the lone Democrat to lose in the House.

KONDRACKE: Well, Chet Edwards has been there for eight terms.

BARNES: Right.

KONDRACKE: And this is the most Republican district in the country that is represented by a Democrat in Congress. But I still think Chet Edwards is going to pull it out.

OK. In the Senate right now, the Republicans have 55 seats; the Democrats have 44, and there's one independent who votes with the Democrats. So the Democrats need to take six - pick up six seats to take over.

Here's a look at the top 5 Senate races right now.

Pennsylvania: Republican incumbent Rick Santorum versus challenger Bob Casey Jr.

The two of them had a debate on "Meet the Press" last Sunday, and there was no clear winner. But I - but I was rather disappointed actually with the Casey performance. I mean, there wasn't a lot of there there seemingly. But I - I don't think that most viewers noticed. And Casey is still up, and I think he's going to win that race.

BARNES: He's not up what - as much as he was. Santorum's a great candidate; there's a third-party liberal, pro-abortion candidate in there. So Santorum has a shot, a real shot.

KONDRACKE: Rhode Island - its Republican primary is this Tuesday, pitting incumbent Lincoln Chafee versus challenger Steve Laffey. Then the winner will take on Democrat Sheldon Whitehouse.

Now Chafee, for unaccountable reasons - not clear reasons - is using - has decided to make a protest over U.S. policy on settlements in the West Bank - Israeli settlements in the West Bank by holding up the John Bolton nomination for U.N. ambassador. I don't understand what the connection is, but in any event he seems to see one. I don't think that's going to help his - his chances in this - in this primary. But - but he is ahead.

BARNES: He's ahead, but he's - if he wins the primary, he'll lose the general.

KONDRACKE: OK. Ohio's Senate race is also competitive - features Republican incumbent Mike DeWine, versus challenger Sherrod Brown.

Mike DeWine's in trouble. I mean, Ohio's got all the terrible atmosphere - political atmosphere against Republicans that - that you referred to earlier. On the other hand, I think DeWine is a strong candidate, knows how to finish. And Sherrod Brown is - is pretty much of an anti-business liberal.

BARNES: Is DeWine a moderate?

KONDRACKE: DeWine - DeWine's a moderate. One of my people.

BARNES: One of those moderates, and they do pretty well.

KONDRACKE: We now move to Missouri: Republican incumbent James Talent - no moderate he - versus Democrat Claire McCaskill.

In June, McCaskill was up by 6. Now there's been a lot of money spent on - by - by Talent. It's a dead even race. I would like to think that there will be some influence on this campaign - this issue - this race because of the stem-cell referendum, which is heavily favored, and Talent's against it. I hope that hurt - hurts him.

BARNES: Yes. Yes. It means all the pro-lifers will vote against her, McCaskill.

Talent's a pretty good senator, and McCaskill lost the governor's race a couple years ago to Matt Blunt. So I think she's - I think you have to say Talent's favored.

KONDRACKE: And the New Jersey Senate race: Democrat incumbent Bob Menendez versus Republican challenger Tom Kean Jr.

This is a blue, blue, blue, blue state. And, you know, Menendez should be far ahead. But Tom Kean has a famous name - his father was - was governor, and he has a chance. But it - you know, it - it's really hard to see how it doesn't go to the Menendez.

BARNES: Yes. Blue, blue, blue, blue hardly covers it. I mean, New Jersey is probably been the state that's trended Democrat more than any state with perhaps the exception of Vermont in recent years. And - look, if anybody can win as a Republican, it's probably Tom Kean Jr. But I agree, it'll be tough.

KONDRACKE: OK. It's very early, but here's how we see the balance of power shaking it out; we will be updating this feature as we get closer to the election. But here's our bottom line at the moment.

In the House, I think Democrats will pick up 20 seats, and take over the House. Fred thinks they'll pick up 12 and not take over the House.

In the Senate, both Fred and I think that the Democrats will pick up four seats - two shy of what they need to take over.

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