Time Running Out for Republicans

As President Bush heads for Crawford and Congress begins a month-long recess, time is running out for the Republicans to prevent a significant electoral setback this November.

Polls show negative attitudes are hardening on key factors that will shape the November landscape: public approval of Mr. Bush and the GOP-controlled Congress; the Iraq war; and the country's direction. Middle East hostilities show no sign of easing.

Despite temporary fluctuations, there has been little change in underlying attitudes for months. It's increasingly hard to see much improvement between now and the Nov. 7 election, barring the unexpected.

As a result, Democrats increasingly believe they will regain the House for the first time in 12 years -- and some Republicans agree. But top GOP strategists contend their party retains an advantage from the way individual districts are drawn, in voter turnout plans and in financial resources.

Even there, Democrats are more competitive than in recent elections.

The GOP still seems likely to retain the Senate, although with a reduction in its current 55-45 majority. But even a change in one house will transform this town's political dynamics dramatically, subjecting Mr. Bush and his administration to far greater congressional scrutiny than they have had the past four years.

Most recent developments don't augur well for the GOP.

IRAQ: The new government's failure to curb sectarian violence has forced Mr. Bush to shift more troops to Baghdad, requiring extension of some tours of duty. That makes it less likely the U. S. can start reducing its troops in Iraq during the coming months, as GOP lawmakers had hoped.

Recent polls show little sign the GOP has made headway by contrasting Mr. Bush's vow to stay in Iraq until the job is finished with what it calls a "cut-and-run" stance among Democrats. Surveys show a majority disapproves of the president's Iraq policy and favors a timetable for U.S. withdrawal.

MIDEAST: Several polls showed a majority approved of Mr. Bush's refusal to seek an early cease-fire between Israel and Hezbollah terrorists. But the public also saw the renewed violence as exacerbating problems such as high domestic oil prices, the safety of U.S. troops in the region and the chance of more terrorist attacks.

Even before the conflict intensified last weekend, it had reopened rifts between Mr. Bush and U.S. allies who favor greater efforts to reach a cease-fire, and it seems certain to complicate the effort to curb Iran's development of nuclear weapons.

CONGRESS: Republicans plan this month to renew their stress on the need to strengthen border security. But there's little sign lawmakers will be able to pass meaningful immigration measures before the election.

A maneuver to cut the estate tax by linking it to an increase in the minimum wage may backfire. And GOP leaders concede they won't pass most bills to fund the government before they leave to campaign at the end of September, requiring a post-election session to complete the year's business.

Both houses are already threatening to set records for the fewest number of days in session, bolstering the Democratic argument of a "do-nothing" Congress. Most polls show congressional approval in the 20s, worse than Mr. Bush.

All year, a plurality has favored election of a Democratic congress. Some surveys also show voters favor electing a new person over their current member, another warning signal in a year in which many more GOP-held seats are in play than Democratic ones.

Republican congressional candidates could also suffer from weak statewide tickets in New York, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Some analysts caution that support from independents is a key factor in current Democratic leads, noting that fewer independents usually vote in off-year elections than in presidential races.

Both the House and Senate Democratic campaign committees have more cash on hand than their GOP counterparts, but that's offset by the far bigger war chest of the Republican National Committee over its Democratic rival.

Neutral analysts note that the GOP has shown in recent elections a remarkable ability to turn out its vote, and expect a similar effort this year. The question is whether that effort will be equally successful in a year in which the political landscape is far less friendly to th GOP than in both 2002 and 2004.