GOP Pulling Hard For Lamont

The New York Times inadvertently tells the story of Connecticut with its placement decisions. On Sunday, July 24th, the paper, widely read in the southwestern part of the state, buried its endorsement of Stamford mayor Dannel Malloy in the Democratic primary for governor in the back of its Connecticut and the Region section. A week later, its endorsement of Senate challenger Ned Lamont over incumbent Joseph Lieberman is the lead editorial in the widely read Week in Review section and gets a mention in a front page story on the race.

It's all Lieberman and Lamont all the time all over Connecticut. While candidates for other offices hunt for innocent voters enjoying the New England summer to greet, the crowds come to Lamont and Lieberman. On Saturday, ten days before the August 8th primary, a crowd of 100 Democrats waited patiently at a clock museum for tardy Lamont to show up in the Democratic stronghold of Bristol. In Connecticut primary politics, that counts as a big crowd.

No wonder organization Democrats are worried about the implications of a Lamont victory in August. The race for the Senate is becoming star power v. staying power. Since his impressive showing at the Democratic state convention in May, Greenwich scion Lamont has become that rarest of creations in Connecticut politics: a star. Crowds have begun to move toward him. He's a hit at the scores of parades that Connecticut towns revel in throughout the season. Lamont invested millions of his own enormous fortune in becoming the vessel of an anti-war crusade and became an unlikely celebrity; he's feeling the love.

Lieberman nevertheless has the money, recognition, and statewide support to withstand the looming catastrophe and continue until November. Unaffiliated and Republican voters could combine with some Democrats then to return him to a fourth term in the Senate. But such a gambit will be expensive and increase the drama that already consumes the political class to the exclusion of all other politics.

Democrats in Connecticut and Washington harbor hopes that this will finally be the year they capture some of the three Republican congressional seats they believe should be theirs. A Lieberman and Lamont primary race that becomes a wider epic in the fall makes them shudder at the opportunity costs it will inflict on them.

Money, energy, and attention that would go in varying degrees to the three Democratic challengers will be expended on the emotional and bitter Senate race. Democrats Joseph Courtney, Diane Farrell, and Christopher Murphy will each need the full measure of Democrats in their districts and contributors around the state and the nation.

Farrell may be in the best position to snag a Republican seat. She's challenging Republican Christopher Shays, after narrowly losing to him in 2004. Shays has endorsed Lieberman for re-election over the forgettable Republican nominee. Farrell enjoys the singular advantage of facing the Republican the national party would not mind seeing chew the canvas on election night.

Courtney and Murphy do not enjoy Farrell's advantages. Simmons, seriously outnumbered but also underestimated by Democrats, thrashed Courtney in 2002. Since then, the three-term incumbent has continued to build his organization. In the district, he earned considerable credit for his role in saving the Groton submarine base.

"Where there is confusion and rancor among Democrats, it helps Republicans," says Simmons manager Christopher Healy, who ran John McCain's successful 2000 Connecticut primary campaign. Lieberman appearing on the ballot away from the Democrats plays some role in the mysterious realm of voter psychology, Healy thinks. Politicos in Connecticut are convinced that a chunk of voters are liberated to split the rest of their ticket if they do it early in their trot down the ballot. The state, however, features a rich tradition of ticket splitting for many offices.

Murphy may pay the biggest price for a solo Lieberman bid as he struggles to tip over Republican champ Nancy Johnson in the Fifth Congressional District. That section of the state, running from Hartford's western suburbs to the far northern corners of Litchfield and Fairfield counties ought to be Lieberman country in August and November. Johnson recently paid lavish praise to Lieberman in a newspaper interview. She hinted she wouldn't mind seeing him on the Republican ticket.

A Lieberman victory in the Democratic primary will vanquish Republican dreams of angry Democrats concentrating their wrath on taking a final, fatal whack at the senator in November. For at least the next week, many active Democrats and most Republicans have the same favorite candidate: Ned Lamont.