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August 26, 2006

Hot Story: A Tale of Two Elections

Beltway Boys

FRED BARNES, "WEEKLY STANDARD": Coming up on "The Beltway Boys," the anniversaries of 9/11 and Hurricane Katrina are coming up. We'll tell you how each party's trying to frame the debate.

MORT KONDRACKE, "ROLL CALL": Fred and I put it all on the line: our predictions as of right now for the House, the Senate and the statehouses.

BARNES: What's really behind John McCain's remarks on Iraq this week? We'll give you our take.

KONDRACKE: And the FDA approves over-the-counter sales of the morning-after pill. We'll have the political fallout.

BARNES: "The Beltway Boys" are next, right after the headlines.

(NEWSBREAK)

KONDRACKE: I'm Mort Kondracke.

BARNES: And I'm Fred Barnes, and we're "The Beltway Boys."

KONDRACKE: Well, Fred, the "Hot Story" is "A Tale of Two Elections." It's only 73 days til the - til Election Day, and both parties are in - in attack mode. The Republican strategy, as I'm sure you're going to explain, is that this is a - a choice between the Republicans and - and the Democrats at - at each level.

What the Democrats want to do is make the campaign a referendum - national referendum on - on President Bush. And the theme is that up and down the line, domestic and foreign, the Bush administration has mucked things up royally, and that the Republican Congress has been the enabler of - of all this stuff.

The - the number case, example is - is Iraq, which we'll get to in a second. But upcoming is the anniversary of Katrina, on - on August 29. And so Harry Reid, the Senate Democratic leader was down in - in - in New Orleans, and he had a little briefing this week on - on the telephone actually with reporters. And he said that, "These people (in New Orleans) were not hit by a natural disaster, but by a manmade disaster of the incompetence of this administration."

Well, it was a very big natural disaster.

BARNES: It sure was. Yes.

KONDRACKE: He - they're emphasizing the incompetence - incompetence. And incompetence, of course, is the - is the word that they - that they keep using.

Reid also has been talking about mistakes in - in Iraq. And there was - there was a - a session that Harry Reid had with Jack Reed of Rhode Island and Carl Levin of Michigan that I actually listened to -- radio.

BARNES: I didn't.

KONDRACKE: On - on the telephone. And this is what Jack Reed had to say at the - in that session.

(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)

SEN. JACK REED (D), RHODE ISLAND: This open-ended commitment by the president, saying, We're not changing anything - a policy that over the last three years has - has seen further deterioration in Iraq, is not the direction. I think we have to signal strongly to the Iraq leadership that we are beginning a redeployment.

(END AUDIO CLIP)

KONDRACKE: And in coordination with that conference call, the Senate Democrats also put out a - a - a - quote - unquote - "report," which - the first paragraph of which was, "1,805 have passed since September 11, 2001, and Osama bin Laden has remained uncaptured. 1,365 passed between the bombing of Pearl Harbor and Japan's surrender to U.S. forces."

BARNES: Well, I don't know that - I didn't quite follow the - the reasoning there.

(CROSSTALK)

KONDRACKE: The longer - it's taken longer.

BARNES: I know.

(CROSSTALK)

KONDRACKE: OK.

BARNES: One thousands and 85 days - that means since there's been a terrorist attack on America. That's a pretty good record for the Bush administration, that there hasn't been. (INAUDIBLE) been attacks in England and Spain and - and all over the world. But not here again.

Look, Democrats go into this election with an advantage, Mort. There's no question about that. The public's in a crappy mood. They're all disagreeable and mad and angry about this or that and so on. But I don't - I don't think they're mad the competence of the Bush administration. Remember the last time you heard that? That was the big issue? 1988, Mike Dukakis? (INAUDIBLE) President Dukakis. Didn't help him.

What happened to the "culture of corruption"? That was the big issue that was going to sweep Republicans out of Washington. (INAUDIBLE) it made no headway at all, so Democrats dropped it.

Now, I don't think - I don't think Katrina's going to help them. I mean, we know - look, after a year, everybody knows that while Bush administration did not perform heroically - that's for sure - the main problem was with the mayor or New Orleans who didn't get the buses to take the people out. We - we know that. Now the federal government, the Bush administration's pumping in money, and it's up to local and - and state officials to handle it.

On the other hand, Iraq is a problem for the Bush administration, no question about it. Contrary to Jack Reed, who's a - a smart senator, and a West Point graduate by the way - they have changed their tactics. That's why they're - they've gone into Baghdad with more troops to try to clean out the terrorists. But I - Iraq remains a problem.

And you shouldn't assume that just because it's a problem that all the people who are mad about the war and - and register negatively in - against it in polls, are going to vote for Democrats. Because many of them are Republicans who are made that we're not winning there.

The Republicans, of course, will try to flip the Iraq issue and make Democrats desire for rede - redeployment, which means withdrawal. Make that the issue.

Listen to Bush talking about this at his - at his press conference a few days ago.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: There's a lot of people - good, decent people - saying, We're drawing out. They're absolutely wrong. It would be a huge mistake for this country. If you think problems are tough now, imagine what it would be like if the United States leaves before this government has a chance to - to defend herself, govern herself, and listen to the - and - and - and answer to the will of the people.

We're not leaving so long as I'm the president.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BARNES: Well, they're - they're pretty clear on that.

But look, the Republican strategy, very simply, is - is one thing. It - as it looks right now - and that is, in addition to trying to flip the Iraq things - but it's mainly, make the war on terror the paramount, overriding issue in the campaign.

Now they were helped a little on this when the British broke up that plot to have airlines flying to the United States, were going to blown up by terrorists from England. And that helped. And they hoped this issue - because it's one that clearly helps President Bush. It's what won the elections for him in 2008 (sic) and 2004. They did - well, at least avert a landslide. Republicans - a Democratic landslide in which Republicans lose the House and the Senate, or both. Plus, you know, a slew of governorships.

Democrats have tried to inoculate themselves on the issue, and I think they've done it with paramount clumsiness, in which they propose the same old defensive actions. You know, Well, we're going to - we have to guard our ports better. We have guard our nuclear power plants better. That stuff is history. The idea is to stay on offense. You need a - as the British plot was broken up before it went. It was - it was carried out. That's what you do. You don't wait for the - the terrorists to show up. You break up the things ahead of time.

And the - and the Democrats' problem is simply that they have attacked the offensive tools and tried to weaken them. You know, the NSA eavesdropping thing; that swift banking program, where they follow the terrorists' money, the Patriot Act itself. That's the problem for Democrats, and I think you're going to hear a ton about it during the campaign.

They had three other things Republicans have to work on - Bush: Iran's got to be tougher - diplomacy alone isn't - is probably - isn't going to do it; Iraq, more of what they're doing in Baghdad, where American troops are not spectators. And then get an issue to really attract conservatives, who may not turn out, as it stands now. The best one to do that is fight over judges and the nomination. And it - Mort, they love that.

(CROSSTALK)

KONDRACKE.will love that.

Look, everything depends on whether we are succeeding in Iraq or not. That.

BARNES: Not everything.

KONDRACKE: Well, almost everything. And it clouds the whole - the entire picture, as most White House aides will - will acknowledge to you.

BARNES: It clouds the picture.

KONDRACKE: Of course it does. I mean, you know, the economy is good, but people think the economy is bad. Why? Because they have a - in a sour mood over Iraq. So it's good that - that we're finally being aggressive in Baghdad, trying to - to pacify the place. What we have to do is keep it pacified. And, you know, things look good at the moment, but the question is what happens over the next 73 days?

It's not a good sign politically that Chris Shays, who - of Connecticut - who has been a - a stalwart supporter of the Iraq war, in a - is in a tough race, went to Iraq for the 14th time, and now has come back and said that we need to have a timetable for withdrawal. Bush is not going to have a timetable for withdrawal. In fact, I don't even think we're going to pull out any - any troops - net pull out of troops, which Republicans had been hoping for.

So anyway, let's look at the way things are in the polls at the moment. Several polls this week show that President Bush's approval rating is in the low 40's, up from the low-to-high 30's. The Real Clear Politics is at 40.5, which is better for - for the Republicans. In the generic congressional ballot test, the Democrats continue their lead over Republicans in the polls out this week. The Real Clear Politics is 8.5 percent Democratic advantage. According to the Gallup poll, Bush continues to get high marks for terrorism - 55 percent, and 43 percent disapproving. But 61 percent disapprove of his handling of Iraq; that's the big number. And 56 percent disapprove of his handling on Hurricane Katrina.

Worse for President Bush, the recent Pew polls show that only 41 percent think that President Bush is trustworthy. That's down 21 points since September of '03. And only 42 percent think that Bush is capable of getting things done. That's down 26 points from three years ago.

Republicans lead Democrats by 8 points in the question of "Which party do you trust in the war on terrorism?" And Democrats have a slight lead of three points in the war of Iraq.

BARNES: That enough polls for you?

(CROSSTALK)

KONDRACKE: That's our report for this week.

BARNES: All right. OK.

Anyway, so here's the bottom line about we think the election will shake out. In the House, Democrats need 15 seats to take back control. Mort thinks Democrats will pick up those seats, and I don't. I think they'll hang on, but just barely.

In the Senate, Democrats need to pick up six seats to take over. Both Mort and I think Republicans will retain control.

And in the statehouses, Democrats need four governorships to gain - to gain a majority. We both think Democrats will achieve that, or at least come very close this November.

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