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August 19, 2006

Hot Stories: Fear Factor, Mideast Scorecard

Beltway Boys

MORT KONDRACKE, "ROLL CALL": Coming up on "The Beltway Boys": the gloves are off, each party accusing the other of being soft on terror. And it's getting ugly.

FRED BARNES, "WEEKLY STANDARD": Did Hezbollah really win the Mideast conflict? We'll give you our take, and name the winners and losers.

KONDRACKE: Joe Lieberman gets some good news in his first week as an independent candidate.

BARNES: And George Allen's gaffe in the Virginia Senate race: a real political problem or much ado about nothing?

KONDRACKE: "The Beltway Boys" are up next, right after the headlines.

(NEWSBREAK)

BARNES: I'm Fred Barnes.

KONDRACKE: And I'm Mort Kondracke. We're "The Beltway Boys."

BARNES: The story - the "Hot Story" number one, Mort: "Fear Factor." I'm talking about the fear of another serious terrorist attack by Islamic militants. And - and it is - and it is the issue. It's the hot new issue as we approach the November 7 midterm election. That's less than 90 days away. So it's already starting to heat up.

And, Mort, I'm afraid it has trumped all your favorite issues. You know, stem-cell research, immigration, same-sex marriage, all those ones you like to talk about. And it what looks like - and I think you'll agree on this - an - increasingly, a Democratic year in the election, this is the one issue, terror - national security, terror, all wrapped into one - it is the one issue that makes Democrats tremble with fear, that it could prevent them from winning the House or the Senate or both, or having a - a - a strong election year.

Remember, it was the issue of - of terrorism that killed the Democrats in 2002, hurt them badly in 2004. I - I'm not sure that Bush couldn't have won without this feeling in the country that he was very strong in - in - in thwarting terrorism. But they are determined, Democrats are - determined to fight back now.

Listen, for instance, that voice of moderation, Democratic national chairman Howard Dean. Listen to him.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HOWARD DEAN , DNC CHAIRMAN: We are bogged down, spending half a trillion dollars in Iraq, which could be used to do the things that the Democratic Party has - and the 9/11 Commission recommended, which is to make our airports and our - our nuclear-power plants and our train stations safe here at home.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BARNES: The - and it - it wasn't just Howard Dean, it was a lot of other Democrats, and particularly after that federal judge in Detroit struck down the National Security Agency's eavesdropping - electronic eavesdropping without a warrant on al-Qaida or suspected terrorist who are talking to somebody in the United States or outside the United States. (INAUDIBLE) in the Middle East - one person on the call was a - a suspected terrorist. I mean, they - they acted triumphant that this judge had struck down that entire NSA program.

Russ Feingold, the Wisconsin senator, said, "The administration went too far with the NSA's warrantless wiretapping program. Today's" - that was - what? - Thursday - "Today's federal court decision is an important step toward checking the president's power grab."

And then Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid said the ruling is - quote - "the latest example of how the Bush administration has jeopardized our efforts in the war on terror." That doesn't make any sense, but believe me, that's what Harry Reid said.

Now, when you take those quotes and - and other things that the Democrats have said, I think they - they show two things that really demonstrate why - why Democrats continue to be weak on the issue of fighting terrorism.

One is, they want to fight the last war. That stuff about - about protecting cargo and shipments and - and nuclear facilities, all that's - all that's not a problem. I mean, what's a problem now is what we saw in that thwarted terror attack. I mean, the terrorists have gone way beyond trying to get on airplanes and fly them into buildings. They've - you know, they've done that. They - they've gone beyond it. Now they were trying to mix - take on chemicals that they could mix on the plane to blow up the plane. That's what we have to deal with their - their bombmaking and their efforts to plant bombs places. And I don't think Democrats understand that.

And they don't - here's what they clearly don't understand, Mort, and that is the seriousness of the threat by Islamic terrorists. If they believed it was really serious, they wouldn't spend most of their time attacking NSA eavesdropping, attacking the program where the wire transfers of money among - among terrorists was - was tracked down. They wouldn't spend so much time attacking Guantanamo, the prison. They wouldn't have tried to roll back some of the Patriot Act.

So I think they still have a problem: they're weak on terror.

KONDRACKE: Well, I agree with you that there is no more important issue at all than the - it's the issue of the 21st century. It's civilization against Islamic radicalism. And there - there's no question about: the Islamic radicals are trying to work on - on developing nuclear weapons, weapons of mass destruction of - of all kinds.

And - but I'm not sure that when the Democrats are saying that we need to harden our - the homeland that they're necessarily fighting the last war. That could be the next war. And I think it need to be done.

But look, politically, this -- this country ought to be unified about fighting the war on terrorism as it was after 9/11, and that we were after - after Pearl Harbor. And if we were unified, we would have NSA spying, and we would all agree. And the Democrats, in addition to what some of the Democrats - Reid, for example, and others - Patrick Leahy - said, Oh well, let's - let's tap these terrorists. Well, OK, let's get the - let - let's get the legislation passed now to do it. That's part of what unity is all about.

But there - there are - there is stuff that we need to do. We need to protect airplanes against bombs in the cargo. We need to protect some sites like, you know, rail transportation. You've got chlorine gas coming through Washington, D.C., all the time. All it would take is one bomb and you could kill hundreds of thousands of people, you know?

In addition to which, we absolutely need to win the war in Iraq, which is the - which is the basic issue of the election. We cannot bug out of the war - out of - out of Iraq, or else the Islamic radicals win.

BARNES: By the way, I - I don't think congressional legislation is needed, because that judge's decision striking down the NSA eavesdropping program is going to be overturned. I mean, her - I mean, it's a wildcard. Every other - five other courts have appeal have - have ruled exactly the opposite, that .

KONDRACKE: Let's not wait.

BARNES: .wiretaps were not needed.

KONDRACKE: Let's not wait for the Supreme Court with - with that - with that program what it did with - with Guantanamo.

BARNES: OK, look, here's the point about this polarization: we are stuck with it. There is nothing George Bush can do that are going to do get Democrats on - on his side on this issue, and there's nothing they can do that's going to get George Bush.

So given that, let's have a debate. This is the most important issue in the world, I agree with you. Let's have a debate among Republicans and Democrats - they disagree. Let's have a vigorous debate. It will be a lot better than some stale yip-yap all fall long about health care.

KONDRACKE: Yes. Well, I'm not - I'm not advocating. And - but - and - and you know, my - my appeal to you - for unity notwithstanding - I realize it's a vain hope. But so, let's look at the - the way things stand.

A CBS poll this week showed that the Republicans still have an 8- point lead over Democrats on the question of who do you trust in the war on terror, but that's down from 30 points in - in previous polls. And a new poll - Pew poll shows that 69 percent are either "very" or "somewhat" concerned that the Republican majority could get us involved in more wars, while 57 percent are "very" or "somewhat" concerned that the Democratic majority would be weak on - on efforts in terror. Which means more people more people are concerned about the Democrats - the Republicans being too aggressive than they are about the Democrats being too weak.

And finally, in the - the Pew poll, 55 percent say that the Iraq war is not going well, which is up 11 points since the beginning of the year, which I think colors everything. It is the - the fact that most people think that we are losing this war in Iraq that I think is - is pretty serious threat for the Republicans.

BARNES: No more polls?

KONDRACKE: No more polls.

BARNES: All right.

Coming up, George Allen's gaffe in the Virginia.

KONDRACKE: For now.

BARNES: .Senate race.

And the battle for the hearts and minds in the new Mideast. We'll take a look at the winners and losers. "Hot Story" number two straight ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KONDRACKE: Welcome back to "The Beltway Boys"

"Hot Story" number two: "Mideast Scorecard." Here's how we think the major parties fared in the Mideast conflict, now that there's a cease-fire. A winner: Hezbollah.

Here's President Bush's evaluation of - of how his Hezbollah took place - took - fared, and we'll talk about it afterwards. Watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: The - the first reaction, of course, of Hezbollah and its supporters is to declare victory. I guess I would have done the same thing if I were them. But it - sometimes it takes people awhile to come to this sober realization of what - of what forces create stability and which don't. Hezbollah's a force of instability.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KONDRACKE: I'm sorry say, but that.

BARNES: The sober realization is not what I associated the Middle East.

KONDRACKE: Yes.

BARNES: That's for sure.

KONDRACKE: Exactly - exactly right. I mean, it's not just Hezbollah that thinks that Hezbollah won. The Middle East is so crazy that if a group like Hezbollah starts a war, gets its own country clobbered by an adversary, in this - in this case, Israel, it still gets declared winner by - by everybody in the region - almost everybody in the region. Why? Because the Arabs are so starved for self-respect, that if their one of their numbers stands up to the Israelis for - for even 20 minutes, you know they're - they're - they're - they're deemed to be a hero.

But in terms of, you know, what - what's happened as a result of this cease-fire is that Hezbollah's going to keep its weapons. It's not going to be disarmed. It's not going to lose any power. It's gained in prestige all over Lebanon. And - and - and moreover, the international force that was supposed to get involved in this thing is - is not - is going to be powerless. The - the French were going to contribute 400 troops?

BARNES: Yes.

KONDRACKE: I'm sorry, there were going to contribute 2,000 troops? Now they're down to 400. You can't depend on them.

BARNES: Two thousand? I thought it was going to be 15,000 at one point.

But in any case, you know, the U.S. promised - Secretary of State Condi Rice, the president, said, We can't go back to status quo ante - you know, the way things were before the war. And that's pretty much where they are.

And the other things is, I think all you need to know about Hezbollah is, all of a sudden they're not-particularly-charismatic leader Nasrallah is now an international rock star. So they won.

KONDRACKE: The loser is Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert. I told you that we would not have any polls for a second; the second is over. The Israeli newspaper "Marif" has a poll showing that Olmert's approval on the - on handling of the war is at 40 percent. That's down from 78 percent during the war.

Another poll showed that 30 percent of Israelis think that Israel won - only 30 percent. And 70 percent think it was wrong for the government to have agreed to this - this cease-fire. It's not only Ehud Olmert who's down, it's his defense minister, Amir Peretz is also down. This guy was a former union boss - utterly unqualified to be defense minister.

BARNES: In Israel.

KONDRACKE: And I think that the - the government's going to fall over there.

BARNES: Yes, no doubt. I think there's a good chance it'll fall. It's a coalition government anyway. I'm not sure who will come in.

But, you know, from talking to people who have been in Israel during - when did the war start - July 12 - who have been in there - there over the last month or so, all say the same thing: the Israelis almost unanimously think that - that this war, since it solved nothing, will lead to another war. That Israel and - and Hezbollah are going to clash sometime. And the next time, what they want - what the Israelis want is the kind of military technology that will allow them to take out all those Hezbollah rockets. That's what they failed to do this time, and - and while the casualties weren't massive in Israel - you know, they - if they don't do it - if they don't get that ability, the - the casualties will be more next time.

KONDRACKE: The winner here, or a winner is Syria and Iran, Hezbollah's allies, and in case of Iran, the arms supplier and financier.

Look, before this war began, what was Topic A on the world agenda? Iran's nuclear program, which is a massive threat to - to all of humanity, in the - in the long run. It's now all but - all but forgotten. The - you know, the - all the - the Arabs are scared to death of the Iranians. But when it's you - the U.S. and Israel against - against any Islamic force, the Arabs are all scared - scared into - the leadership is all scared into - into siding with - with - with Iran, which is their - is their real enemy.

So - and in Syria's case - you know, Syria got kicked out of Lebanon, but now through Hezbollah, may end up running the place.

BARNES: Yes. That's hard to believe that that could happen, but, you know, I wouldn't want to rule it out. I mean, look, through this whole thing, the puppet of Hezbollah, the puppet of Syria and Iran, the issue was who's going to dis - who is going to disarm them? We thought it might be the Israelis; well, no that didn't quite happen.

And then we have these two U.N. resolutions, 1559 and 1701, that says Hezbollah has to be - has to be disarmed. And so the question persisted through this whole war, who's going to disarm Hezbollah? Well we know the answer now: nobody.

KONDRACKE: Yes. And the loser? The big loser, I think, is President Bush. The administration, you know, cited Lebanon as a big success story in the quote-unquote new Middle East. And it wanted Hezbollah to be defeated. Lebanon is weakened as a democracy, maybe fatally. And Hezbollah is going to continue operating. And our long-term enemy, Iran, is gaining in prestige. Total loss for the - for the administration.

BARNES: I don't think Bush is a big loser, but he certainly was let down by a lot of people: the Israelis, who didn't mount an all-out offense; the Lebanese, who wound up backing Hezbollah of all things; and remember how the moderate Arab states on this - you alluded to this - initially were critical of Hezbollah, but then they fell in line. I mean, the Saudis, Jordan and Egypt - they all fell in line and were bad.

KONDRACKE: Exactly.

Coming up, Rick Santorum closing in the gap in the Pennsylvania race. And Joe Lieberman gets some much-needed good news after his first week as an independent candidate in Connecticut.

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