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July 15, 2006

Hot Story: Iran's War

Beltway Boys

MORT KONDRACKE, CO-HOST: Coming up on "The Beltway Boys" -- Mideast meltdown, is Iran trying to turn this week's violence into a regional war? We'll outline the nightmare scenario.

FRED BARNES, CO-HOST: President Bush and Russian President Putin trying to put a happy face on a rocky relationship.

KONDRACKE: Former CIA operative Valerie Plame says the White House destroyed her career and is looking for payback.

BARNES: And Rudy Giuliani, he's making all the right moves, but is he really serious about running in 2008? "The Beltway Boys" are up next, right after the headlines.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BUSH: The best way to stop the violence is for Hezbollah to lay down its arms and to stop attacking. And therefore, I call upon Syria to exert influence over Hezbollah.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KONDRACKE: I'm Mort Kondracke.

BARNES: And I'm Fred Barnes. And we're "The Beltway Boys."

KONDRACKE: Well, the hot story is Iran's war. President Bush, as you saw, putting the heat on Hezbollah and on Syria for the war that's going on in Lebanon right now.

But you know, this is really a proxy war between the United States and Iran. And I've got to say, Iran at the moment is winning this war.

One, it's contributing a lot to the havoc that's going on in Iraq. And there are lots of people who think that Iran is really the strategic winner right now in Iraq, far from the scene of the action at the moment.

Iran is continuing to work on nuclear weapons. Nobody's stopping it. That was supposed to be the topic of this G-8 summit that's underway in St. Petersburg, Russia, right now. But guess what? The attention of the world has been diverted to the war in Lebanon. Why? Because Iran's ally Hezbollah attacked Israel, and Israel attacked back. And so that diverts attention.

Condi Rice did have this to say about Iran's role. Watch.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CONDOLEEZZA RICE, SECRETARY OF STATE: The Iranians are not hiding their hand in this. They have their links to Hezbollah. And I think it would be unthinkable that they are not playing a role.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KONDRACKE: Look, I think what Bush has got to do is squarely refocus the G-8 summit on the Iranian menace. And one way to do that is for him to say, or allow it to be known that he is not going to leave office with Iran on its way to possessing a nuclear weapon, implying that if diplomacy doesn't work, and he's been, you know, he's been very patient in applying diplomacy, that other means might be used.

BARNES: Well, I can't let that go by, because what I think -- I suspect you're talking about is this theory, which foreign policy expert Bob Kagan has written about, and others have mentioned that as a farewell gift to the world when he leaves office, and Iran after diplomacy and sanctions have not stopped it from developing nuclear weapons, George W. Bush would invoke the military option and destroy all the nuclear facilities in Iran and not leave Iran to his successor as unfinished business. It'd be finished business.

OK, the G-8. You're right about the G-8 in St. Petersburg. And where the temptation there is going to be -- to call for a cease-fire. And Saturday, that's what Vladimir Putin was saying in effect. Listen to him.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

VLADIMIR PUTIN, RUSSIAN PRESIDENT (through translator): In this context, we consider Israel's concerns to be justified. At the same time, we work in the assumption that the use of force should be balanced. And in any case, bloodshed should stop as soon as possible.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BARNES: By "bloodshed stopping," he means a cease-fire, which would be a mistake and a big mistake right now.

Look, this war needs to continue so Iran does not win, and Hezbollah and Syria, and Hamas down in Gaza don't win. Hezbollah must be destroyed. Its military operations destroyed and its political influence wiped out. That would be the ultimate goal.

But at least to have it removed as this military terrorist force along the northern border of Israel, and have its political influence over the Lebanese government reduced. You need a secure Israel and a democratic Israel -- rather a democratic Lebanese government that can operate on its own without this foreign force having a veto over it. You can't have that.

KONDRACKE: Yes. Look, just to pursue this argument that I'm making that Iran is on the march and is succeeding, look elsewhere in the area.

Hamas, which is Iran's ally, rules in Palestine right now. The Israelis are bashing it, but still, it is the government.

Syria has been committing assassinations inside Lebanon. No one is punishing it for that. The U.N. demanded that Hezbollah disarm as part of the peace agreement that -- in Lebanon. It has not disarmed. It is, as you say, an army within a country. It's got 10,000 rockets that it can deploy. No one's stopping that.

Right now, because of the war that basically Hezbollah and Iran started, Arab television is broadcasting scenes of carnage in Lebanon to the Arab street, inflaming opinion there further against the moderate Arabs.

The -- Iran has China and Russia doing its bidding at the U.N., blocking serious sanctions against it. And finally, you know, the allies are now split over what is going on in Lebanon with the French and others saying that Israel -- disproportionate - using disproportionate force.

I mean, in Tehran right now, Ahmadinejad has got to be smiling about all this stuff. And it seems to me it's up to George Bush in St. Petersburg and the Israelis who are doing a fine job to wipe the smile off Ahmadinejad's face.

BARNES: And you know I agree with that. We don't want the dark side to win here. And I don't think it's going to happen.

But I want to talk about President Bush a minute, because I think to his credit, he has acted so differently from the way other presidents have acted in similar situations, or deadly situations where war and fighting break out in the Middle East.

You know what the usual pattern is, Mort. You've seen. You've seen it. You've seen it with George W. Bush's father, you've seen it with Ronald Reagan, you've seen it with Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter, and Republican and Democratic presidents.

What happens is Israel responds to some provocation or attack. And it goes on for a couple days. And a cease-fire is sought. And both sides are blamed and so on.

President Bush has not done that. He hasn't openly encouraged Israel, but what he has said correctly is that Israel has a right to defend itself, and that he's not going to be making military decisions for Israel, nor should he.

And so, as I said before, the war needs to continue for a while, or Iran will win. I mean, Hezbollah has to be stopped. And then Syria, I mean Syria is a client state of the Iranians. They can't be allowed to succeed. They have to be barred from any shred of lingering influence that they have in Lebanon.

And at best, we could stop them from being a terrorist haven. They're obviously the head of the military wing of Hamas is there.

Hamas, in Gaza, there, the hope would be that the Israelis could destroy or come close to it, the military wing of Hamas and reduce their influence on the government.

Now I realize those are all pretty broad things to hope for, but they can actually be achieved. And by not denouncing Israel the way Putin and others do, with you know, disproportionate force, and I think President Bush is helping those things happen.

KONDRACKE: Well, I agree with that. I just think that he's gone easy on Iran. I mean, I think that he ought to really focus on Iran as the ultimate bad guy in this entire endeavor.

I mean, there really is a new axis of evil. You know, North Korea is part of it. It's not involved in the axis, but it needs to be dealt with. But right now, the focus has to be on Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas and Syria.

BARNSE: And what the original axis of evil was when Bush talked about?

KONDRACKE: Yes.

BARNES: It was not only those countries, but it was the terrorist groups that they work with. And Iran here is leading Islamist jihadist movement. It's not the old countries that have fought Israel, Jordan, and Egypt. It's all countries that are -- or groups that are Islamist. That's what it's really pushing.

And I agree. Iran isn't going to face military reprisal here, but certainly should have deeper, deeper sanctions.

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