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July 29, 2006

Hot Stories: No Peace Yet, Democrats' Advantage

Beltway Boys

MORT KONDRACKE, "ROLL CALL": Coming up on "The Beltway Boys," Israel keeps pounding away at Hezbollah targets in Lebanon as pressure builds for a cease-fire. Secretary of State Rice is in the region today.

FRED BARNES, "WEEKLY STANDARD": The Mideast crisis threatening to derail a Bush comeback before the November elections.

KONDRACKE: Iraq's prime minister getting mixed reception on his trip to the United States.

BARNES: And what is the deal with Howard Dean? We'll show you what he said this week that had Democrats cringing.

KONDRACKE: "The Beltway Boys" are up next, right after the headlines.

(NEWSBREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: This is a moment of intense conflict in the Middle East. Yet our aim is to turn it into a moment of opportunity and a chance for a broader change in the region.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TONY BLAIR, BRITISH PRIME MINISTER: We know how this situation came about and how it started. And the question is now, how to get it stopped. And get it stopped with the urgency that the situation demands.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KONDRACKE: I'm Mort Kondracke.

BARNES: And I'm Fred Barnes, and we're "The Beltway Boys."

KONDRACKE: Well, the "Hot Story" of the week is "Peace: Not Yet."

Condi Rice is in the Middle East again, trying to work out a deal to end the conflict in Lebanon. And the - there's no way that - that there's going to be any kind of a - an agreement reached at the U.N. and then implemented at the earliest by the end of next week. So the - the - the pounding that's - that Israel has been inflicting on Hezbollah from the air, although to a much lesser extent from the ground, is going to go on. And that's been the - the U.S. strategy all along, to give the Israelis time to - to try pound Hezbollah into the ground as much as - as much as they can.

The - the plan that - that Condi Rice is proposing includes these elements:

One is a multilateral, multinational force to stabilize the region. Disarm Hezbollah, and then integrate it into the Lebanese army. It calls for Hezbollah's return of those captor - captured Israeli soldiers. The creation of a buffer zone in southern Lebanon to put Hezbollah rockets out of the range of Israel, and the creation of an international reconstruction plan for Lebanon.

Now I - I talked to a high-ranking Israeli official today who said that he thought that Israel had accomplished a lot with this - this attack. They - they've knocked out, he said, 80 percent of the long-range missiles that Hezbollah had, about 50 percent of the - of the medium-range missiles. Killed about 10 percent of the Hezbollah fighters, about 200 people. Destroyed a lot of command-and-control and infrastructure stuff. And he's hoping that - that the deal that - when - if and when Condi Rice can work out, will accomplish even more diplomatically, specifically getting that multinational force in there to get Hezbollah disarmed, and also prevent its resupply. Now that's the part I'm skeptical about, as to whether you can get a robust enough force in there to - to - to - to actually disarm Hezbollah.

BARNES: Yes. No, I'm skeptical about that, too. And I would say, victory: not yet.

Now this will - this - if the plan goes into effect, it's not a - a defeat for Israel for sure. But it's not victory, either. And remember what victory would have been: it would have been a crippling of Hezbollah and a dispersal of its members, its troops. And creating a secure northern border of Israel. And also freeing its embryonic democratic government of - of Lebanon from this horrible influence, if not domination, Hezbollah has over it. At the very least, a veto.

And also, that the - this - Hezbollah represents a forward position for Iran. I mean - I mean, Hezbollah is an extension of the revolutionary guards in Iran. And they - that was another goal that might have been achieved. And it hasn't been achieved.

There are - let me mention again the secure border. That was certainly a goal - a secure border and the freeing of the Lebanese government. Well, you know, they may actually a - a more secure border. If the multinational force comes in, particularly if it can push Hezbollah back 20 miles, then obviously Israel will have a - a - a much more secure border than it did three weeks ago, or two weeks ago. And so that'll be good.

But the other part, if the - if Hezbollah goes - and Hezbollah isn't going to be disarmed. I mean, we just know that's not going to happen. But if it goes into the Lebanese army, it will then be a part of the Lebanese army. It will become the Lebanese army. And it will have power over the Lebanese government. And that's bad.

KONDRACKE: Yes. I agree.

Well, another major goal of the Israelis was to - to kill Hassan Nasrallah, the - Hezbollah's charismatic leader. And they obviously haven't been able to do that.

BARNES: Well, there's still time for that.

KONDRACKE: Well, yes. Exactly. If they can find him and - and - and - and hit him. But they haven't even been able to knock Hezbollah's TV station off the air. They - they've knocked down a - a tower and the headquarters. But some - somehow they've - their redundancy underground or something like that.

Anyway, he - Nasrallah went on television with a half-hour broadcast that was - that was pretty defiant, although he also threatened missile attacks into central Israel, which has - he has not been able to deliver on.

Also today, the Iranians, the sponsor of - of Hezbollah rejected the - this planned U.N. resolution that would require them to give up their nuclear program by the end of August or face economic sanctions. They - they just blew that off. So as you say, the two scores that we were hoping would be achieved here: the military defeat of Hezbollah, or the - at least the significant degrading, and a political defeat for Iran, it hasn't happened.

BARNES: Yes.

Now there's one other thing though that may be a significant gain for Israel and for the world. And that is, by - if indeed Hezbollah is pushed way back from the - Israel's northern border, they would not be there to retaliate instantly if Israel decided it must take out Iran's nuclear facilities.

Look, I don't see how a British prime - British - an Israel prime minister can stand by and let a country like Iran go nuclear when its leaders have pledged to - vowed to eliminate Israel, to wipe it out. They're not going to let that happen. And when a multi-natural - a national force there, I think that gives Israel a little more leeway in - in actually doing that.

A couple other things. We'll agree, I think, that President Bush gave the Israelis enormous running room to move in there. And of course, they've - they've done it in the air. But they really haven't committed the ground forces to wipe out Hezbollah. A lot of pain for President Bush. Some gain, but I'm not sure it - it - it quite equals the pain.

And then I think there, inevitably, going to be political repercussions inside Israel for the decision that has been made by the Olmert government. And remember, he's a civilian. In the past, Israel has had the former generals, the tough guys - I - I mean, we know them all: Sharon and Rabin and even Barak was a former general. And - and - and - but he's a civilian. And he decided not to commit heavily Israeli ground troops. The army wanted to do it. The air force didn't, and I just have a feeling they're going to be debating his decisions and his government's decisions for many, many months to come. Inside Israel.

KONDRACKE: So when would you expect this - this attack on Iran?

BARNES: Sooner rather than later. I mean, the - I mean, the Israelis have a vested interest in not waiting. I mean, you can't - I mean, you can't - and Mort, I've heard you say it many times - you just can't dismiss the - the arguments or the - or the claims made by the - Iran's president that - that Israel should be eliminated.

(CROSSTALK)

KONDRACKE: I don't think President Bush wants Israel to attack Iran before the election at least.

BARNES: Well.

(CROSSTALK)

BARNES: ..November 7. That.

KONDRACKE: Until next year, at least.

BARNES: Well, they'll - well, maybe next year. And - and they can go ahead and do it. But it's going to happen. And somebody's going to do it. If not Israel, then the U.S.

All right. Coming up, could - could foreign crises derail President Bush's political comeback? We'll tell you. "Hot Story" number two straight ahead.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BARNES: Welcome back to "The Beltway Boys."

"Hot Story" number two: "Advantage: Democrats."

Mort, as you know, we are roughly 100 days from the November 7 midterm election. And I think you'll agree, Democrats are ahead. And there are some indicators that we see people throwing about to suggest exactly that, that Democrats are ahead.

The one I think is probably the most valuable, though there's no cause-and-effect relationship, is presidential approval rating. And you can see that Bush - job - Bush's job approval is hovering in the upper 30s and low 40s in polls taken just in the past two weeks. Real Clear Politics has his average at 38.5 percent. That's lower than it needs to be.

I mean, usually when a president's popular, like, say - or unpopular - Ronald Reagan was unpopular in 1982. Bill Clinton was unpopular in 1994. Both times their parties lost. As I say, mid - maybe not cause and effect, but it seems to work out that way.

Then there's this so-called generic question. You know, Would you like to see Democrats run Congress, or would you like to see Republicans? And Democrats, in the polls I've seen, show - Democrats are ahead by 10 points. This is a complete waste of time. That poll - it's never predicted. So don't worry about it.

I think right now, just when you assess the situation, as you and I have, that Democrats are right on the cusp of winning the 15 seats they need to take control of the House.

KONDRACKE: Yes. Well, I - I think there is a cause-and-effect insofar as people's attitude toward the president does have an - does have an impact on whether they vote Republican or - or vote Democrat.

Now on the - with this Middle East crisis going on, I think Bush gets a little bit of - of a bump, because here he is grappling with a foreign war. And - and when presidents are - are involved in foreign policy, it - it - it usually helps them. And if something good happens, then he - I think he gets a considerable bump, perhaps. Especially if Hezbollah is brought under control, and especially if Baghdad can be brought under control. That would really be a big help.

But if there's perpetual chaos, and all people see on TV is more and more killing, and it keeps going on and on and on without any resolution, this may be good in the long run, in the service of building a new Middle East, as the administration likes to say. But I think it's bad in the short run, namely between now and - and the election.

And I agree with you that - that - that the Democrats appear to be on the cusp of - of winning 15 seats to pick up the House of Representatives. To win the Senate, they need six seats net - net gain. And that's very difficult. The Democrats would have to run the table. They'd have to win practically every vulnerable Republican seat and hold all the vulnerable seat of their own.

Now what - what's happening, in - in three states that we're going to look at, I think the Democrats are going to certainly, by my lights, pick up Pennsylvania, were Bob Casey is - is running well ahead of Rick Santorum, the incumbent. In two other races - in Ohio, Mike DeWine is - is in trouble. He's the Republican incumbent. But I don't know that Sherrod Brown is going to - is going to beat him. I think that's - that's too close to call.

And in the state of Washington, which is a Democratic state, Mike McGavick is a very good candidate running against Maria Cantwell, who's not such a good candidate. But as I - as I say, it's a Democratic state. So I - it's - that's too close to call.

BARNES: Yes, I would say, you know, what matters particularly right now in Iraq and - and can either help or hurt the president, is what happens in Baghdad. You know, you and I talked to the foreign minister of Iraq when he showed up at a meeting when we were expecting to see the prime minister himself, who begged off, saying he wasn't feeling well. But in any case, he - he said Baghdad is everything. If they haven't gotten it nailed down by the end of the year, then the government there is going to be really in trouble. I'm sure the White House cares whether they have it - the insurgents cleaned up by November 7. That would help.

State of Washington, I think McGavick wins. Great candidate. Ohio, I don't know. I would say DeWine has better than a 50-50 chance. Every Republican I know in Pennsylvania says Santorum's going to win. Look, they all say that even though he's been, you know, 10 to 20 points behind all year. I'll have to say, I'll - I'll believe it when I see it.

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