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| Turning Toward Iran | |
| Can Republicans Count on a House Snapback? |
June 17, 2006
It's Too Soon to Tell Whose Number is Up
By Tom BevanHow quickly things can change. For months Democrats have been basking in the glow of President Bush's dismal approval ratings, ongoing investigations of Republican lobbyist Jack Abramoff, and a White House in disarray and seemingly helpless to respond to the steady stream of bad news in Iraq. There has been giddy speculation by some Democrats about retaking control of one or both houses of Congress, and more than a few stories have popped up recently reporting that Democrats are already hard at work making plans for when they regain majority status in November. But a string of events over the last few weeks has seen the Democrats come crashing back to Earth.
The first blow came with the investigation of Rep. William Jefferson (D-La.). Allegations of bribery ballooned into a media frenzy in late May after court documents revealed an FBI search of the Louisiana Democrat's home turned up $90,000 cash stuffed in his freezer. A plea deal by a staffer and the subsequent raid of Jefferson's congressional office by the FBI (which infuriated members of both parties) has kept the story in the national headlines and significantly undermined the Democrats' efforts to try and nationalize the mid-term elections around a Republican "culture of corruption" in Washington.
A second piece of bad news came in last Tuesday's special election in California's 50th Congressional District to replace disgraced Republican Congressman Randy "Duke" Cunningham, now in prison after admitting to taking more than $2 million in bribes while in office. Democrats had high hopes that a victory in this heavily Republican district would deal a significant blow to GOP morale and be a harbinger of a coming Democratic wave this November. Both sides poured millions of dollars into the contest, but despite the stench of corruption and a highly energized base, Democrat Francine Busby lost to Republican Brian Bilbray by 4 points, managing to get only 1 percentage point more of the vote than John Kerry received in the district in 2004.
Rahm Emanuel, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, had to settle for declaring the race a moral victory, but the results suggest that while the GOP is still going to have to fight tooth and nail to retain control of Congress, as of right now the dynamics that would indicate a massive shift in favor of Democrats this November simply aren't there.
Another bummer for Democrats was the official announcement this week that Special Prosecutor Patrick Fitzgerald will not seek an indictment against Karl Rove. Frog-marching Rove out of the White House in handcuffs has been one of the Democrats' most treasured fantasies over the last two years, so news that he is off the hook is clearly a huge disappointment. It's even more than that, however, because not only did the Bush administration escape the serious political damage (not to mention the insane media frenzy) that would have accompanied a Rove indictment, but Bush's Brain is now back in business and fully focused on the 2006 elections.
By far, however, the worst news for Democrats from a political standpoint is the good news coming out of Iraq. The killing of terrorist mastermind Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and the final appointments to the Iraq Cabinet last week were a huge boost for the Bush administration. The president shrewdly turned right around and parlayed those accomplishments into an even bigger victory with his surprise visit to Baghdad on Tuesday. Despite suffering from jet lag, Bush was back in Washington on Wednesday morning appearing energized, engaged, and confident at a Rose Garden press conference.
For the first time in months the White House has gotten sustained positive news coverage out of Iraq, and Bush's poll numbers appear to be inching back upward. Democrats have been forced to stand in the president's shadow, offering meek criticisms that begin "Zarqawi's death is good news, but . . ." Suddenly, Democrats are back in the perilous position of trying to criticize the president without coming off looking like they're rooting for America to fail in Iraq.
Even though he's not on the ballot this November, a resurgent Bush buoyed by progress in Iraq would be bad news for Democrats' hopes to regain control of Congress. Whether or not Bush's upswing is a blip or a trend remains to be seen. There's still more than four months to go before the election and, as Democrats have learned in just the past few weeks, that's plenty of time for one's political fortunes to change.
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