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June 10, 2006

Hot Story: 'Great Day' in Iraq

Beltway Boys

MORT KONDRACKE, "ROLL CALL": Coming up on "The Beltway Boys": finally some good news from Iraq. We'll tell you how Zarqawi's death might impact the war effort and politics here at home.

FRED BARNES, "WEEKLY STANDARD": Both parties try to spin results from Tuesday's elections. We'll tell you what it really means for the midterms.

KONDRACKE: And a national Democrat questions whether Hillary Clinton can actually win the White House. We'll tell you who it is.

BARNES: And we'll tell you what's next in the gay-marriage debate.

KONDRACKE: "The Beltway Boys" are coming up next, right after the headlines.

(NEWSBREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Zarqawi's death is a severe blow to al-Qaeda. It's a victory in the global war on terror. And it is an opportunity for Iraq's new government to turn the tide of this struggled.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KONDRACKE: I'm Mort Kondracke.

BARNES: And I'm Fred Barnes, and we're "The Beltway Boys."

KONDRACKE: The "Hot Story" is "Great Day." And "Great Day" was Thursday, when the word got filtered around the world that Zarqawi, this mad killer, had been killed by us in a -- in a - in a bombing raid. And also, Iraq completed its - its cabinet. Very important step, fulfilling the jobs of defense minister, interior minister and national security adviser.

The key word in what you heard President Bush saying was "opportunity." The new prime minister laid out his strategy in the Washington - article in "The Washington Post" on Friday. And it's a - and it's a good strategy. It is to build national unity, to reconstruct the country, but most of all to stand down - make the sectarian militias stand down. And most important, secure Baghdad. Baghdad, the capital of the country, where 1,400 were killed just - just in May alone. So, you know, the - the - now, having Zarqawi is going to help prevent a civil war, because that's after all what Zarqawi was trying to foment.

But the big question is, what happens next and what does the United States do? And on that score, the president is bringing his - his war cabinet up to Camp David. Watch what he said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BUSH: I'm coming here Monday, by the way, Mr. Prime Minister, with my - a lot of my Cabinet members to discuss the way forward in Iraq, to analyze the new government, to look carefully at what - you know, their - their - their - their blueprint for the future looks like, and to figure out how we can help.

Removing Zarqawi is a major blow to al Qaeda. It's not going to end the war. It's certainly not going to end the violence. But it's going to help a lot.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KONDRACKE: The prime minister he was talking about was the prime minister of Denmark, not - not - not of Iraq, who was visiting.

But look, I hope that what we're going to do is not stand down or - or stand back from the - from the conflict in Iraq, which many of the military actually over there, and I think even the Defense secretary, Rumsfeld, would like to do - but rather, mount an offensive to help the Iraqis clear out Baghdad and - and - and make it a secure place.

BARNES: Look, I'm going to - you're right about Baghdad. I couldn't agree more. Let me get back to that in - in just a moment, because I want to say something about Zarqawi.

Zarqawi was the most important Islamic jihadist in the world, the most important terrorist. You know, Usama bin Laden's stuck in a cave somewhere in Pakistan or Afghanistan. And this guy operationally was ought leading the most horrible terrorist attacks imaginable in Iraq. He was the general. The other guys in the cave somewhere don't matter at all right now.

And in Iraq, he was the - not only the leader of the insurgency, he was the strategist. It was his playbook, you know, to blow up all these innocent people in mosques and so on in hopes of - of driving the - creating a civil war and having people in the United States look over there and say, it's hopeless and - and have the American troops pull out.

And the truth is, he was partially successful. He did make the war - he was a contributing to the war becoming unpopular in the United States. His departure may make it - may change that a little bit.

Now you've - one of the things that I think can happen is - is there will be some disarray among the 10 percent who were the foreign jihadists who were with Zarqawi. The thing is, the 90 percent of the Sunnis who were in the insurgency - and I think there's an opportunity to peel some of them off and bring them into the political process.

Opportunity - you're right, Mort; that's the key word. And the idea is to change - is to jump at this opportunity and creating a turning point in the war in Iraq. And that's exactly what can happen, but only with a military offensive. And I - the American troops have to be not spectators, they really have to be involved in a huge counterinsurgency effort. And I understand this is going to be one of the things that will be considered at the meeting at Camp David on Monday and Tuesday. It certainly should.

You really have to start with - with Baghdad. You know, it's one thing to have chaos and instability out in the boondocks. But you can't have it in your capital city, where you have 6 million people. That's something like a quarter of the population of Iraq totally. Baghdad - control of Baghdad is everything in a situation like this. Like in France, during the revolution there, control of Paris was so important.

Now - and you have to get the government - is stuck in the Green Zone. You know, they're protected in that area. It would be, like, in - in the U.S. having our capital off limits to average Americans. Because certainly Iraqis can't get in the Green Zone because some of them might be terrorists.

So Bush is going to have to act. His generals, and maybe even Don Rumsfeld, may not want to mount this offensive. But - but everything rights on it: the war in Iraq, the war on terror, and Bush's presidency.

KONDRACKE: Right. Right.

Picking up on that - I mean, there is both politics and strategy - strategic reasons why Bush should - should order the offensive and not - and not stand down. I mean, it is going to create more - more U.S. casualties for awhile. And it probably will - Bush's poll ratings would - would take a short-term hit. But, I mean, the obvious short-term political thing to do would be to start pulling troops out. That's what most of the Democrats are demanding.

And here's Dianne Feinstein for - for one example.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. DIANNE FEINSTEIN (D), CALIFORNIA: Well, I think this is a major step forward. But what I think is even more significant is the fact that the president is going to have a series of meeting beginning Monday and Tuesday. And I hope the president will be forceful in saying that, you know, it's been three years now. We've got to transition this mission. We can't stay the course as it is.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BARNES: Transition..

(CROSSTALK)

KONDRACKE: Well, yes, transition out, which you know.

BARNES: Yes.

KONDRACKE: But I mean, look, it is - the strategy up to now has been to turn things over to the Iraqis. But it is clear that the Iraqi forces by themselves are not capable of clearing out Baghdad and putting down the insurgency. We have got to help. If we pull out prematurely or do what we're doing now, which is to confine ourselves largely to - to bases, and - and - you know, and depend on the - on the Iraqis, we're going to lose. If we lose, Bush's long-term political reputation is going to be - he'll be a failed president.

BARNES: Indeed. Absolutely. No question about it.

Look, Feinstein is a lot more sensible than some of these other Democrats like Barbara Boxer or Pete Stark, the House member - you're a big fan of Pete Stark?

KONDRACKE: Hot dog.

BARNES: Hot dog. All right. Here's what he said on Thursday.

Quote - "This is just to cover Bush's rear so he doesn't have to answer for Iraqi civilians being killed by the U.S. military, and his own sagging poll numbers. Iraq is still a mess. Get out." - unquote.

Well, do Democrats like Pete Stark know that what they're advocating is what Zarqawi was trying to achieve? That's exactly what he wanted: to get the Americans out, and then - then and only then, the insurgency might have a chance of at least taking over some of Iraq, and - and maybe all of it.

Now the most pathetic figure in this is Congressman John Murtha of Pennsylvania, you remember who advocated last November that we begin an immediately - an immediate withdrawal of troops from Iraq. Stop and think for a minute now - if his policy had been followed, what - where we'd be now. One, we'd - our troops would be out, most of them. And two, Zarqawi would still be there, and a happy man.

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