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June 11, 2006

Gen. Casey, Rep. Harman, Newt Gingrich, Dan Senor, Roundtable

Fox News Sunday

CHRIS WALLACE, HOST: I'm Chris Wallace. A military strike takes out Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi and changes the war on terror, next on "Fox News Sunday".

The death of Iraq's top terrorist and a government that is now complete. What does it mean for the U.S. mission in Iraq? We'll ask the American commander there, General George Casey, live, only on "Fox News Sunday".

The president calls a meeting of his war cabinet. We'll discuss U.S. policy with three key players who have a special perspective on the war: House Intelligence Committee Vice Chair Jane Harman, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, and Dan Senor, who helped set up the first U.S. authority in Iraq.

Plus, the political fallout from the death of Zarqawi in this country and Iran. We'll hear from our Sunday regulars, Brit Hume, Mara Liasson, Bill Kristol and Juan Williams.

And a special look at the week's defining moment, all right now on "Fox News Sunday".

And good morning again from Fox News in Washington. Let's get a quick check of the latest headlines. At the time of his death, Abu Musab Al- Zarqawi was developing an international terror operation. The New York Times reports Zarqawi had already trained up to 300 potential terrorists, then sent them back to their home countries to await orders to attack.

President Bush has expressed concern over the suicides of three inmates at the Guantanamo Bay prison, the first deaths of detainees to be reported since the prison opened four years ago. Mr. Bush called for an investigation of what happened.

And an Iranian spokesman said today some parts of the plan offered by world powers to end the nuclear standoff are acceptable and some should be removed. The official says his nation is taking time to study the proposal and is not stalling.

And joining us now, live from Baghdad, is General George Casey, the commander of multinational forces in Iraq.

General Casey, welcome back to "Fox News Sunday". Sir, take us back to Wednesday night and tell us about the order to launch the attack on Zarqawi.

GEN. GEORGE CASEY, COMMANDER, MULTINATIONAL FORCE: Well, first, good morning, Chris. Nice to be back with you. And as you can imagine, it's been a good week here in Iraq. I think you've heard probably the stories, but Wednesday evening -- late afternoon, early evening -- an operation that had been in progress for weeks came to bear fruit.

And we had been tracking one of the individuals, one Sheikh Abdul Rahman, personally for almost two or three weeks. And he was tracked to a house just about eight kilometers north of Baquba, which is just outside of Baghdad, to the north, and there were significant signals that he was there to attend a meeting with Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi.

One of my commanders gave me a call, told me what he was going to do, and I said go ahead, and he struck the house. He went with an air strike because of the isolated location of the house and it's a very wooded palm forest area, and only one road in and out. So there was concern that if we tried to get in there by ground, we'd be discovered and he would escape yet again.

So it was a very successful day for us. It's a great loss to the network. But I think everybody's been quite clear here that it's not going to end terrorism in Iraq. But it's certainly taken out the number one terrorist that we've been after here for three years, made it a great day for the Iraqi people and a great day for us.

WALLACE: If I may ask you, on a personal basis, you've been fighting this guy for two years over there in Iraq. What were your personal thoughts when you got the final confirmation you got him?

CASEY: It's interesting, because I wouldn't let myself believe we really got him until we got the fingerprints back. And so that was not till about 3:30, 4:00 o'clock in the morning when we got that call. But I was actually -- frankly, I was quite happy.

WALLACE: I'm sure. Al Qaida in Iraq has posted a message on an Internet Web site today in which they promise to continue to carry out, quote, "major attacks that will shake the enemy." Your reaction, sir.

CASEY: That's expected. They are hurt badly. And it's not just the Zarqawi operation, but we have had a series of operations in the aftermath of that based on intelligence we have gathered over the past weeks while tracking this one individual, and we have had a steady drum beat of operations against the Al Qaida network here in Iraq since the Zarqawi operation.

I expect them to say what they said. I expect them to try to do what they said. But I think what you're going to see is an enhanced security operation here announced by the prime minister in Baghdad over the course of the coming week and a tightening of security in the Baghdad area.

So like you said, it's expected, but I think we'll be prepared for it. But again, you can't stop terrorist attacks completely.

WALLACE: According to the U.S. government, there are more than a dozen insurgent groups in Iraq and, again, according to U.S. government estimates, Zarqawi's forces represent only about 1,000 of the 20,000 fighters in the insurgency.

Given all of that, what can you say about the impact that Zarqawi's death has had on the insurgency in general and also the sectarian violence that he was so devilishly effective in helping to foment?

CASEY: As you suggest, he does not have great influence over the primarily Sunni insurgency, so the impact on that will not be great. He does and did have quite a lot of influence on his own network, which is foreign fighters and some large number of Iraqis.

It is a network, and so I'm sure there are plans and operations that are out in the different cells of that network that are still in training, and they will still attempt to conduct them. But they lost their leader. And any organization, particularly an organization at war that loses their leader, is effective.

And we will continue to go after his network and disrupt it in what we feel is a very vulnerable period. And so we hope to take advantage of that. Now, again, it's not going to stop terrorism across Iraq, but it is a major blow to both his network and to Al Qaida.

WALLACE: General, let's try to tie up some loose ends and let's blast through these as a kind of lightning round. First of all, have you gotten back the results of the DNA tests and can you, in fact, confirm that it was Zarqawi?

CASEY: We have not gotten back the results of the DNA test. However, we have very clear visual identification. We have a 100 percent match on the fingerprints, and we have a good match on scars and tattoos on the body.

So I am very, very confident that we have killed who we said we've killed.

WALLACE: General, we understand that the autopsy of the body has been completed today. Do you know what those results show? And how do you respond to this claim by at least one Iraqi man who was on the scene that he saw Zarqawi's body being beaten before he died?

CASEY: I have not seen the results of the autopsy, and the way I respond to the comments of the alleged Iraqi who saw what went on there is that's baloney, and we've already gone back, looked at it. Our soldiers who came on the scene found him being put in an ambulance by Iraqi police. They took him off, rendered first aid, and he expired.

And so he died while American soldiers were attempting to save his life. And so the idea that there were people there beating him is just ludicrous.

WALLACE: General, starting tomorrow you're going to be participating in this two-day war council, the president and all of his war cabinet, up at Camp David -- also top Iraqi officials. How wide-ranging will the review be? Is everything on the table?

CASEY: Chris, you'd have to ask Steve Hadley that. We're going to provide -- obviously, Zal Khalilzad and I will provide an assessment of how we see things going from here. But I think you'll have to talk to the White House on exactly how wide-ranging it's going to be.

WALLACE: Now, the White House keeps saying and the president has said continuously that he's going to make any decision about how to proceed based on the advice, frankly, from you, from the commanders on the ground.

Is it possible that we could end up not with troop cuts, but, in fact, with more troops?

CASEY: Are you saying as a result of this meeting, is that possible?

WALLACE: Yes.

CASEY: It's not likely. But as I've said all along, I constantly evaluate the situation. And if I think I need more, I'll ask for more. If I think I need less, I'll tell the president I need less. So that would be my answer to you.

WALLACE: Are you going to tell him tomorrow whether you need more or less?

CASEY: No, I'm not going to discuss what I tell the president, Chris, with you...

WALLACE: Well, I...

CASEY: ... as close as we are.

WALLACE: As personally close as we are. General, you mentioned, though, the fact that Prime Minister Maliki -- one of the main operations that he's already begun to talk about, and I know you're already working with him about, is the idea to secure the capital of Iraq.

Now, as you know far better than I do, there have been these operations in the past -- Operation Lightning a year ago. In fact, recently you called in more troops to -- I think 1,500 more troops to Anbar province because you felt you needed them. May you need more U.S. troops to help secure the capital of Baghdad?

CASEY: It's possible, Chris. Right now we're not planning on it, but it's possible. I will tell you the big difference in this operation is going to be the fact that it's being conducted by a national unity government.

And he has the opportunity to bring the power of that unity to bear on the security situation in Baghdad and to have those political leaders engage the population in support of the operation.

And candidly, we've not had that before, and so this is a new dimension and it's what the patience of waiting for this national unity government I think can help us do. WALLACE: Do you think that it's important for the unity government to get out from behind the barricades of the Green Zone and, in effect, operate, live, in Baghdad like all of the residents?

CASEY: Absolutely. I mean, the leaders need to be in touch with their population not just in Baghdad, but around the country.

And I think an indication of how this prime minister is going to be -- as you saw, I think he went to Basra on his first week in the job, which is the second or third city in Iraq. And he went there to address the security situation right out of the box.

So I think you're going to see this prime minister be very active and aggressive in moving about the country talking to his people.

WALLACE: General, all sides say that another key objective is that you've got to clean up the police, and you've got to get rid of the militias both on the street and inside the police.

Now you finally have a new interior minister, Jawad al-Bolani. How do you break through this cycle where various groups feel that they need militia to protect them, to get them out of the street, to get their arms gone and also to get them out of the police?

CASEY: A couple of things. First, the other really good thing that happened last week, as you suggest, was the completion of the formation of the government and the appointment of the key security ministers, the minister of state for national security affairs, the minister of interior and the minister of defense.

We met with them yesterday. We had dinner with them last night. And I will tell you, I left that initial session with them with a firm impression that we've got bright, articulate, hard-charging folks that are going to take charge of these ministries and move the country in the right direction.

Secondly, again, I go back to the function of unity and what a national unity government is able to do that other governments here have not been able to do.

And when the minister of interior for this government is able to leverage the political influence of all of the leaders of the political parties to help reduce the influence of militia, and particularly to reduce the influence of militia on the security forces, that is going to be extremely helpful.

The other thing I think you're going to see from this minister is the very aggressive hands-on approach. He went to his office straight off the bat and spent that night driving around Baghdad inspecting the ministry of interior checkpoints that were out there.

And that's what the Iraqi security forces need to see. They need to see an aggressive leader who's interested in them and who is interested in national unity.

WALLACE: General Casey, we've only got about 30 seconds left. One final question. As we look back at the successful attack against Zarqawi, the formation of this new government -- again, we've got 30 seconds left -- where do you think Iraq is and the U.S. mission is right now in Iraq?

CASEY: I think we're in a position to begin moving this campaign and helping the Iraqis move this country in a very positive direction. And we've worked hard to get to this national unity government. They're in the lead. They have our full support. And I think you're going to see this government start moving forward.

It will not be without fits and starts, but I believe they have the capability to move this country in the right direction.

WALLACE: General Casey, thank you so much for sharing your Sunday with us. Thanks for appearing on our show.

Up next, three insiders on the president's war council, and what's next for U.S. policy in Iraq. Stay tuned.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

WALLACE: With President Bush set to hold an extraordinary two- day war council at Camp David, we brought together three people who have watched events in Iraq closely. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich is a member of the Pentagon's Defense Policy Board. Congresswoman Jane Harman, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee. And Dan Senor, who helped set up the first post-Saddam authority in Iraq.

Thank you all for coming in.

DAN SENOR, FORMER SPOKESMAN, COALITION PROVISIONAL AUTHORITY: Good morning, Chris.

WALLACE: Let's start with the decision to hold this unusual and highly publicized war council. Does it increase the pressure on President Bush to come out with a bold new plan for Iraq?

Speaker Gingrich, why don't you start?

NEWT GINGRICH, FORMER SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE: No, I think the president's challenge is to convince the country that he has a way forward that makes sense and that's sustainable, and that's been there politically for months now.

So I think the council is an opportunity, particularly with the filling of the slots in the Iraqi government and the killing of Zarqawi -- the council is an opportunity for the president to sort of reset with he's doing and then hopefully communicate it directly to the American people in a convincing way.

WALLACE: Congresswoman Harman, what is it that would say to doubters coming out of the war council, "hey, we're on a new path?"

REP. JANE HARMAN (D), CALIFORNIA: Well, first of all, I doubt any Democrats will be included, so I appreciate the fact that Fox News included me to your war council.

But what would help with doubters -- and there are doubters in both parties all over the country -- number one, if the president decided that Rumsfeld should go, and, number two, if he announced that he is going to start now asking the generals to redeploy our troops because going forward the U.S. objectives -- and we have at least three of them -- can best be achieved politically, not militarily.

WALLACE: Now, when you say redeployed, meaning get them out of Iraq? HARMAN: Start moving them out of Iraq, putting some in Kuwait and Jordan. I mean, we should have an over-the-horizon force. There's no question. But while we're part of the political solution, we're also part of the military problem.

And having us continue to stay there I don't think will achieve our objectives, which are, short-term, three to six months, getting Sunny buy- in -- that was just discussed by General Casey, and our ambassador is doing very well with that -- helping the government deliver services -- three- to six-month window on that -- and disarming the militias.

And again, this new democratically elected Government has to do that politically with our support.

WALLACE: Dan, we're going to get to the question of troop levels in just a second, but I want to ask you -- make use of your contacts, because I know you still have good contacts, inside the White House.

What's your sense of this war council? How wide-ranging is it?

SENOR: Oh, I think they are very serious about exploring all options. I think that for the first time, there will be serious discussions about troop levels, and I know you want to get to troop levels momentarily, and also recalibrating the strategy, focusing on Baghdad -- do we need to redeploy inside Baghdad, effectively turn Baghdad into one big Green Zone?

The understanding that the capital of Baghdad -- it's six million people out of a population -- about a quarter of the population. It's the financial people, the governmental capital, the media capital. If we can't do Baghdad, we cannot win Iraq. And I think there is an understanding within the war council that that needs to be the primary focus.

WALLACE: All right. Let's get to this question -- and, Congresswoman Harman, let me start with you -- about U.S. troop levels. There are certainly members of your party who looked at Zarqawi's death when we learned about it Thursday morning and said that means we can bring the troops home faster. I'd like you to take a look at what Congresswoman, House Democratic leader, Nancy Pelosi had to say. Here it is.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PELOSI: His death and the naming of the Iraqi defense and interior ministers should hasten the day when Iraqis take responsibility for their security and American troops can come home.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WALLACE: Should the events of this week speed up the timetable for withdrawal?

HARMAN: Well, the Zarqawi death is a great achievement, wonderful police work. Our military and our intelligence communities worked together. The Iraqis originally tipped us off, and the event was announced by al-Maliki, which was a very good idea. So you know, kudos to all who worked on that.

It won't reduce the insurgency, I don't believe. You know, he is a charismatic leader, but nonetheless, Al Qaida in Iraq is a small piece of the insurgency. Al Qaida worldwide does not depend on one or two leaders. So I don't see that.

In terms of redeployment, my view about redeployment has to do with my sense of what our objectives are in Iraq going forward. I do agree with Dan that if we can't hold Baghdad, we can't hold anything. And surely with the troop strength we have as it's coming down, those troops should be deployed in Baghdad, which is the population center.

WALLACE: Let me bring in Speaker Gingrich.

I mean, if we're talking about this huge new initiative -- and as I mentioned with General Casey, we've tried it before -- Operation Lightning -- it didn't work -- to try to secure the six million people of Baghdad, do we need more troops or fewer?

GINGRICH: Well, let me establish a couple of simple principles that will probably be politically uncomfortable. First, we ought to rely on General Abizaid and General Casey, because they get up every day.

They work this problem every day. Abizaid is fluent in Arabic. Casey is now clearly the field commander working for Abizaid. And if the two of them come in and say you know, we need fewer troops, I'm for fewer troops. If the two of them come in and say you know, we need more troops, I'm for more troops.

You have a brand new Iraqi government that's finally coming together, and they ought to be part of sitting at that table. But here's the key psychological point. Iraqis are looking to decide which side is going to win.

They look at the Vietnam experience. They look at American politics. And they say OK, are we three months from the Americans cutting and running, are we a year from the Americans cutting and running, are we going to have a helicopter leaving the American embassy in Baghdad the way we did Saigon.

And any gesture by the president that suggests he's going to move one minute faster than the new Iraqi government and his own field commanders is a signal that says don't bet on the Americans and don't bet on freedom, the bad guys are going to win. I think you've got -- that's very important psychologically.

WALLACE: Dan Senor, do you agree with that, that the -- I mean, you've been to Iraq more times than the rest of us at this table. Do you believe that that's what the Iraqi mind set is right now?

SENOR: Yes, and actually, I would say over the last few months, particularly in the Sunni towns, the Iraqis have not been betting on us. They viewed the American military as impotent. They viewed the Iraqi government as in this constant state of formation and not terribly serious.

The last few months since the last election, you talk to the local sheiks there, you talk to a lot of the imams and the tribal leaders. They're betting on the insurgency. They say that we come into towns and then we leave. We don't hold them. And the insurgency returns. They insurgency they can bet on.

So I think the significance of the Zarqawi kill is that we sent a message to them that we actually are committed to winning and that they can bet on us. And there are a lot of fence-sitters right now, as the speaker said, who are deciding who to bet on. And I think in that regard, this is a big moment.

HARMAN: I just see this differently. I'm not talking about cutting and running. That's not at all what I'm talking about. I'm talking about how do we win. We win politically. We don't win militarily. Playing whack-'em-all in the Anbar province is not working. We kill one person, 10 arise. That's just not the strategy that can work.

And while I agree that Abizaid and Casey are admirable, I think the commander in chief, our president, and his top-level folks who are going to be in that room the next two days ought to focus on a political strategy. That's much more likely to achieve victory.

GINGRICH: But this is a core difference. If you read John Nagl's brilliant book, "Eating Soup with a Knife", which is probably the best book on counterinsurgency written by an American in modern times, the truth is in the end, two things have to happen simultaneously.

You have to have a political-economic solution where people come together and say I'm on your team and it makes sense, and you've got to be able to kill the bad guys. I mean, really bad people have to be killed.

I once talked to your current mayor of Oakland and probable future attorney general...

HARMAN: Ron Dellums?

GINGRICH: No, Jerry Brown, the current mayor -- the current mayor, Jerry Brown, who said to me having dealt with more felons in his town than anybody knows about, with really hard criminals, what you need to do -- and he said -- is repression.

Now, when you're dealing with really dedicated terrorists who really want to kill us, the correct answer is to kill them first. That's why Zarqawi is...

HARMAN: I don't disagree with that.

GINGRICH: I don't see, though, how pulling American troops out before Abizaid and Casey say they're ready or pulling them out before the Iraqis feel secure is going to do anything except make the war worse and ultimately lead to an American defeat. SENOR: I think if you look at two of the most successful U.S.- led operations in 2005, putting down an uprising in Sadr City and the operation in Talafar, that western Sunni town on the western side of Iraq, those involved the U.S. forces handling military roles and military, political and economics.

So we went in there. We conducted operations alongside Iraqi military units. And then we handled infrastructure reconstruction. We had close relations with the Iraqi civilians on the ground. If we start withdrawing our troops, it not only undermines our military capacity, even in small numbers, but our capacity to handle some of these civilian and reconstruction...

HARMAN: Well, I don't think we're succeeding militarily. I think it is a huge achievement that there now is a unity government in Iraq, a democratically elected unity government, and all the cabinet positions are filled out.

I think our ambassador there is the best in class, Zal Khalilzad, and he has done an amazing job to generate Sunni buy-in, to help this government stand up. And our State Department is now involved.

But what I am saying is that continuing the same course, you know, is not getting us anywhere, and that a redeployment strategy led by the generals -- I'm not talking about arm chair, you know, congress people telling us what the schedule is.

I'm talking about the generals setting the schedule that is established now -- a new head of the defense department, so everybody knows we're changing strategy, a bigger investment in the political side is going to achieve U.S. objectives fastest.

WALLACE: All right.

HARMAN: And we don't have an infinite period of time here.

WALLACE: I want to give you each about 30 seconds and no more than that.

If there's one thing, starting with you, Mr. Speaker, and we'll go down the line here -- if there's one thing that you could see come out of this war council when they come back from Camp David Tuesday night, Wednesday morning, what would it be?

GINGRICH: It would be a clear definition that the Iraqi government, working with the American military, has a clear strategy of imposing security and doing what it takes to begin from Baghdad working out to secure the country.

WALLACE: Congresswoman Harman?

HARMAN: That a new secretary of defense will lead a different U.S. strategy which will accomplish three or four clear objectives within the next three to six months.

SENOR: If you look at the successful operation in Talafar that I referenced, the ratio of American troops to Iraqi civilians was about 40 to one. The ratio in Baghdad today of American forces to Baghdad citizens is about 700 to one.

So I think at least there should be serious consideration about ramping up our presence in Baghdad in an effort to secure it.

WALLACE: More troops, not less.

SENOR: That's right.

WALLACE: And, Speaker Gingrich, do you think that that would sustain politically?

GINGRICH: Well, of course, it will sustain politically if the president can communicate to the country. But here's the key question, as Congresswoman Harman said. Khalilzad is as good an ambassador as we're ever going to get. Casey and Abizaid are doing a terrific job.

The three of them aren't calling for a change in strategy. The three of them are calling for effective continued implementation of a new Iraqi government.

WALLACE: And because we can never get enough of American politics, Speaker Gingrich, one last question. A few weeks ago you seemed to indicate that you probably were not going to run for president in 2008.

Then on Friday you made a speech in which you indicated that if the race is wide open in late 2007, you probably would run. So which is it?

GINGRICH: Well, what I said a couple weeks ago was that I was shifting from very unlikely to just unlikely, dropping the very, and I think I'll stick with that for the moment. But if there's a wide-open field in the fall of next year, I probably will be a candidate, to the great joy of Jane's friends, by the way, who will see a target-rich environment immediately.

WALLACE: And how do you side if it's a wide-open field?

GINGRICH: I think you look really at -- wide open about ideas more than about anything else, and I think the country is ready for real change, and the country wants dramatically more leadership, I think, in terms of real change.

WALLACE: Speaker Gingrich, Congresswoman Harman, Dan Senor, I want to thank you all very much for joining our own war council.

SENOR: Always a pleasure.

WALLACE: Coming up, our Sunday regulars assess the life and death of Zarqawi and what happens next in Iraq. We'll be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE W. BUSH, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Removing Zarqawi is a major blow to Al Qaida. It's not going to end the war. It's certainly not going to end the violence, but it's going to help a lot.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

WALLACE: That was President Bush on Friday talking about the death of Zarqawi and what it means to the insurgency in Iraq.

And it's time now for our Sunday regulars

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