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| Busting This Year's Election Myths | |
| Post-Election Autopsy | |
| Special Report Roundtable - October 18 | |
| Don't Expect a Political Realignment |
| Rising Wage Gap, But No Squeeze | |
| Health Care, Not Social Security, the Third Rail of 2008 | |
| Will Democrats Keep the Faith? | |
| Turning Toward Iran | |
| Can Republicans Count on a House Snapback? |
May 20, 2006
Calls For GOP Defeat in '06 May Still Be Premature
By Barry CasselmanOne more time, the media is filled with speculation of a dramatic defeat of the Republican Party this coming November, fueled primarily by President Bush¹s unpopularity and dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq.
Certain Democrats who are running this year are already measuring the drapes for the offices they are quite confident of winning from their Republican opponents, many of whom are incumbents.
Those who cover all the individual races for governor, senator, congressional seats and state legislatures, e.g., Stu Rothenberg and Charlie Cook, are being more careful about predicting GOP loss of control of the House and Senate, but even they are indicating that it does not look good for President Bush¹s party.
It may be that the voters will make this kind of historic change in November, but six months from election day such an outcome, I suggest, is premature.
Let us review how voters traditionally express themselves in mid-term elections. First, in order to vote out long-time incumbents, they have ro be very, very unhappy. And they have to be unhappy on election day itself, not one, three or six months before. Furthermore, they have to be unhappy about basic issues. Finally, they have to have a sense that the alternative is somehow better.
The economy, almost always the prime motivator for voter sentiment, continues to improve, albeit cautioned by the inflationary pressures, higher interest rates and rising oil prices. The stock market, usually a reliable predictor for the economy 6-9 months ahead, is near yearly recovery highs, although in recent days it is making what seems to be a short-term correction. The housing market has appeared to top out of its recent speculative bubble, and gasoline prices have returned to historic highs around $3 a gallon, and may go higher, and this does put a negative pressure on the economy. But the administration is unlikely to remain passive to this short-term threat over the next several months. There is not much an administration can do about long-term gas prices or the overall economy, but there is something it can do to keep prices down through election day. Furthermore, studies have indicated that until oil reaches $100 a barrel, its impact on the economy is more limited than dire headlines would indicate.
The news, as reported by the media, has been so bad for so long that it is unlikely to remain on this track for the next six months. It could get much worse, but it more likely to get better inasmuch as the real news from Iraq is actually a mixture of good as well as bad, with prospects for improvement over the summer months as American troops turn more and more responsibility over to Iraqi forces. A pre-election announcement of the beginning of withdrawal of American troops at present force levels is not impossible.
The most interesting contrarian countersign is how well Republicans seem to be doing in several close races, and even in some contests where they should not be competitive. Senate seats now held by Democrats in Minnesota, New Jersey, Maryland and Washington are now close. Governorships now held by Democrats in Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania could be turned over to Republicans. Enough house seats that will be necessary for Democrats to win to take control next year have so far not visibly materialized.
Of course, the potential is there for a Democratic tidal wave in November, and a caution to Republican optimists is that, if such a wave does develop, it historically will be big and sweeping. In that scenario, safe GOP seats and state houses will fall. GOP control of Congress would be lost. The 1994 GOP upset elections are often cited for this scenario. But a vital difference is that Democrats that year were not prepared for the wave that developed against them. This year, Republicans have had clear forewarning.
I have made much, in recent months of the Democrats¹ abject failure to put forward an attractive, credible and saleable alternative to Republican policies. In 1994, Newt Gingrich and his allies put forward their famous ³Contract² and it gave them momentum. This year, Democratic leaders in the House and Senate have dredged up the old class warfare rhetoric and platitudes for change. Senator Schumer of New York, the chairman of the senate Democratic election committee has grossly interfered with a number of individul races to the detriment of his party¹s hoped-for success in November, including Minnesota and Ohio. His House counterpart, Rahm Emanual of Illinois is a much shrewder political strategist, but has been unable to recruit candidates in several critical races.
Finally, I suggest that the current Democratic strategy to take advantage of widespread unease in the country, including among many Republicans, about the war in Iraq by calling for immediate withdrawal of our troops is a critical strategic mistake. It is an attempt to relive the past, in this case, our withdrawal from Viet Nam 30 years ago. But this is a different time, a different place and a different war. Most importantly, President Bush as commander in chief controls this issue. In five or six month¹s time, he could announce that the U.S. will begin to withdraw troops, and the issue would boomerang on Democrats big time.
These days, we seem to want the future to be clear and present now. The trend of the moment is mistaken for an outcome ahead. History does not seem to work that way. History bobs and weaves in defiance of our logic. History always loves to surprise us.
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